LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
Total U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast for 2026 is raised from the previous month, as higher broiler production more than offsets lower red meat production. Beef production is lowered, as the slow rate of steer and heifer slaughter is expected to continue through the second quarter and into the third quarter. Cow slaughter is also reduced for the remainder of the year. Heavier dressed weights partially offset the reductions in slaughter. Pork production is raised slightly, as reduced slaughter for the second quarter is more than offset by heavier dressed weights. Broiler production is raised for the remainder of the year on recent slaughter and hatchery data, as well as supportive margins. Turkey production is lowered on recent hatchery data.
For 2027, beef production is raised, as increased feedlot placements and reduced marketings in 2026 will result in more fed cattle available for slaughter in 2027. Pork production is raised on slightly heavier dressed weights. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released on June 25 and will provide an indication of producer farrowing intentions for the remainder of 2026 that signal hog supply and pork production conditions for the first half of 2027. Broiler production is raised, as favorable returns are expected to carry into 2027. Turkey production is unchanged.
Beef exports are lowered in the second quarter of 2026 based on recent trade data but are unchanged for the remainder of the year. Reduced beef exports are carried into 2027. Beef imports are unchanged for 2026 and 2027. Pork exports are raised for the second quarter of 2026 based on strong shipments to key markets reported in recent trade data but are unchanged for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027. Broiler exports are raised for the second and third quarters of 2026 on recent trade data and improved demand in several key markets. Broiler exports for 2027 are unchanged. Turkey exports are lowered for the second and third quarters of 2026 on recent trade data and less competitive prices. Turkey exports are unchanged for the fourth quarter and for 2027.
Cattle prices are raised for the second quarter of 2026 based on strong prices during the month of May but remain unchanged for the remainder of the year and into 2027. Hog prices are lowered for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027 on recent price weakness for hogs and pork. Broiler prices are raised for the second quarter of 2026 on recent prices but lowered for the remainder of 2026 and into 2027. Turkey prices are raised for the second quarter of 2026 on prices reported through May but are unchanged for the remainder of the outlook.
COARSE GRAINS:
The 2026/27 U.S. corn outlook is virtually unchanged relative to last month. Fractionally higher beginning and ending stocks for 2026/27 reflect mostly offsetting trade and domestic use changes for 2025/26 with adjustments to imports, corn used for ethanol, and exports based on data to date. The 2026/27 season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.40 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2026/27 is forecast 5.8 million tons higher to 1.594 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, trade, and ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is higher, reflecting an area increase for India. For 2025/26, corn production is raised for India, Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay but lowered for Mexico. For India, production is higher based on the latest information from the government that indicates a sharp increase in area and higher yield. Brazil is increased reflecting a boost in production expectations for the first and second crops. Argentina is raised with increases to both area and yield based on reporting from in-country sources, which indicate larger area and favorable harvest results to date. Foreign barley production for 2026/27 is slightly higher, reflecting larger crops for Turkey and Ukraine that are partly offset by a reduction for India.
Major global trade changes for 2026/27 include larger corn exports for India and South Africa. Imports are raised for Mexico, Egypt, and the Philippines but lowered for Turkey. For 2025/26, corn exports are raised for India, the United States, Russia, South Africa and Paraguay. Imports are raised for Mexico, Algeria, and Egypt but lowered for Thailand. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2026/27 are higher reflecting increases for India, Argentina, and South Africa that are partly offset by a reduction for Brazil. Global corn ending stocks, at 281.2 million tons, are up 3.7 million from last month.
WHEAT:
The U.S. wheat outlook for 2026/27 projects smaller supplies and, with no other changes to the balance sheet, lower ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on decreased output as all wheat production is projected at 1,543 million bushels, down 18 million from last month largely on smaller Hard Red Winter wheat production. The all wheat yield is down 0.5 bushels per acre to 47.0 bushels. Exports are unchanged at 775 million bushels, down 15 percent from the prior year. Projected ending stocks are reduced 18 million bushels to 744 million, 20 percent below the previous year. The 2026/27 season average farm price is projected $0.50 per bushel lower this month to $6.00 based on expectations of futures and cash prices for the marketing year.
