Weekly Drought Monitor for the Week ending 5/12/26

Drought in the Lower 48 States increased 0.9% since last week and 0.7% since last month.

This Week's Drought Summary…

This week was defined by a significant precipitation divide, highlighted by a major deluge across parts of the South and Gulf Coast. Persistent storm systems funneled heavy moisture into Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, where total rainfall reached 4 to 6 inches—and in some coastal pockets even higher—representing departures of 3 to 5 inches above seasonal norms. While an active frontal corridor brought a secondary band of moderate rain (1 to 3 inches) from Texas through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast, the Western U.S. remained exceptionally dry, with most areas west of the Rockies receiving less than 0.1 inch of rain. This lack of moisture, paired with blustery winds, triggered extreme fire danger across the Upper Mississippi Valley, though the period concluded with a pattern shift as a significant Pacific low-pressure system finally moved onshore to deliver moisture to the Northwest.
Temperature patterns showed an equally sharp geographical split, with unseasonable warmth gripping the West and parts of the South while a late-spring chill lingered over the North. In the Southwest and South Texas, summer-like heat took a firm hold as Rio Grande Village, Texas, hit a national high of 105°F and Death Valley consistently reached the triple digits; overall, the Western U.S. averaged 5 to 15°F above normal. Conversely, a significant cool-down settled over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, where the Dakotas and Minnesota experienced temperatures 5 to 15°F below seasonal averages. This thermal contrast was further sharpened by winter-like conditions in high-elevation regions of the West, where stations in Utah recorded lows as cold as 10°F, even as record-challenging warmth began to expand across the Pacific Northwest and the Southern Border states.

 

Looking Ahead...

Over the next five days (May 12–16, 2026), weather patterns across the United States will feature a stark contrast between record-challenging heat in the West and unsettled, cooler conditions in the East. A building atmospheric ridge will maintain well-above-normal temperatures across the western U.S., with several high-temperature records likely to be tied or broken as this warmth spreads into the central Plains by mid-week. Conversely, the eastern half of the country can expect near to below-normal temperatures as a series of frontal systems bring frequent rounds of showers and thunderstorms from the Midwest to the Atlantic Coast. Meanwhile, an incoming Pacific low-pressure system is forecast to deliver light to moderate precipitation to the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, while gusty winds may accompany the passage of these weather systems across the Rockies and Great Plains.
The 6–10 day outlook (valid May 17–21, 2026) favors above-normal temperatures across Hawaii and most of the contiguous U.S., with the most intense heat probability concentrated in the Southeast. Areas along the northern border and southern parts of Alaska are favored to be cooler-than-average during this period. Probabilities for above-normal precipitation are increased across Hawaii and the vast majority of the lower 48 states and Alaska. In contrast, below-normal precipitation is favored across the West Coast, particularly over northern California, and in parts of the East Coast, from the Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas.