LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
Total U.S. red meat and poultry production for 2027 is forecast above 2026 production levels as higher pork and poultry production more than offset lower beef production. Beef production is forecast lower, as expected herd rebuilding and increased heifer retention will limit the availability of fed cattle for slaughter. Pork production in 2027 is forecast to increase despite limited growth in expected farrowings as improved sow productivity will support larger pig crops and increased slaughter. Heavier hog carcass weights are also forecast in 2027. Broiler production is forecast above 2026 as producers respond to favorable margins and strong domestic demand. Turkey production is forecast to increase for the second straight year on improving producer returns. Egg production is forecast higher.
The total red meat and poultry production forecast for 2026 is increased from last month as higher expected pork, broiler, and turkey production more than offsets lower beef production. The beef production forecast is lowered on official data through March and lower-than-expected marketings in the second quarter due to the recent pace of steer and heifer slaughter. Marketings were also lowered in the second half of the year due to the slow pace of placements into feedlots reported in the first quarter and reduced expectations for second-quarter placements. Lower expected cow slaughter also underpins the production decrease. Pork production is raised slightly on higher production in the second half of the year, more than offsetting decreases in the second quarter. The broiler production forecast is increased on official production data reported through March and on recent slaughter and hatchery data indicating higher production for the second and third quarters. The turkey production forecast is also raised. Egg production for 2026 is lowered on reductions to the laying flock based on recent hatchery data.
For 2027, beef exports are lowered from 2026 on tighter supplies, but pork exports are raised on increased production and competitive pricing in international markets. Beef imports are lower on expectations of reduced supplies in key exporting countries. Broiler and turkey exports are forecast lower on increased global competition.
For 2026, beef exports are reduced slightly to reflect official data through the first quarter. Pork exports are increased in the second half of the year on improved global demand, particularly in the Western Hemisphere. Beef imports are raised on the increased pace seen through the first quarter and strong demand for lean processing beef. Broiler and turkey exports are adjusted slightly, with broiler exports slightly lowered in the second quarter on recent trade data.
For 2027, fed cattle prices are forecast above 2026 on expected tightening of cattle supplies. Hog and turkey prices are forecast lower with increased production. Broiler prices are forecast higher on supportive demand. The egg price is forecast higher on improved demand.
The 2026 cattle price forecast is increased from last month on recent data and tighter expected supplies. The hog and broiler prices are lowered on recent prices. The turkey price is raised on recent price strength in the second quarter.
COARSE GRAINS:
The 2026/27 U.S. corn outlook is for reductions to supply, total use, and ending stocks with higher expected prices. The corn crop is projected at 16.0 billion bushels, down 6 percent from a year ago on declines to both area and yield. Planted area of 95.3 million acres, if realized, would be down 3.5 million. The yield projection of 183.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather. Larger beginning stocks partially offset the forecast reduction in production, resulting in total corn supplies declining 2 percent to 18.1 billion bushels.
Total U.S. corn use for 2026/27 is forecast to fall 2 percent relative to a year ago on reductions to domestic use and exports. Food, seed, and industrial use is forecast flat at 7.0 billion bushels. Feed and residual use is projected down to 6.1 billion bushels on smaller supplies and higher prices. U.S. corn exports for 2026/27 are forecast to decline 5 percent from a year ago to 3.2 billion bushels. U.S. share of world trade is expected to decline modestly but remain above the average seen over the past several years.
In absolute terms the U.S. remains the largest exporter of corn by a wide margin despite higher exports from competitor countries such as Brazil and Ukraine. With total U.S. corn supply falling more than use, 2026/27 ending stocks are down 185 million bushels from last year. Stocks would represent 12.1 percent of use, down from 13.0 percent the prior year but above the average of the last 5 years.
The season-average farm price is projected at $4.40 per bushel, up 25 cents.
WHEAT:
The 2026/27 outlook for U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies and exports, lower domestic use, and smaller stocks compared with 2025/26. Wheat supplies are forecast down from last year with reduced production more than offsetting larger beginning stocks. All wheat production is projected at 1,561 million bushels, down 424 million from last year on reduced harvested area and yield. The all-wheat yield, projected at 47.5 bushels per acre, is 5.8 bushels lower than last year’s record yield. The first survey-based production forecast for 2026/27 winter wheat is down 25 percent from last year to 1,048 million bushels, primarily on sharply reduced Hard Red Winter production. Total U.S. 2026/27 domestic use is lower on reduced feed and residual use reflecting smaller supplies while food use is unchanged from 2025/26 at 960 million bushels.
Exports are projected at 775 million bushels on reduced exportable supplies and higher U.S. prices, down 135 million from revised 2025/26 exports. Projected 2026/27 ending stocks are 18 percent lower than last year at 762 million bushels.
The projected 2026/27 season-average farm price is $6.50 per bushel, up $1.50 from last year on a lower stocks-to-use ratio and a higher projected U.S. corn price.
