34.10% of the Lower 48 States are in Drought

Following the previous drought-monitoring period’s extensive rainfall associated with Hurricane Francine and Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, drought-easing precipitation developed farther west, across portions of the central and southern Plains and the middle Mississippi Valley. Another area of significant precipitation fell across the northern High Plains and environs, including parts of Montana. However, large sections of the country remained dry, with worsening drought conditions. Some of the most notable increases in the coverage of dryness and drought occurred in the upper Midwest and the Northeast, as well as parts of the western Gulf Coast region and the interior Southeast. Nationally, nearly one-half (45%) of the rangeland and pastures were rated in very poor to poor condition on September 22, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, up from an early-summer minimum of 19%.

Looking Ahead...

Hurricane Helene is forecast to strike Florida’s Big Bend late Thursday, with an intensity and pre-landfall path similar to that observed with Category 3 Hurricane Idalia, on August 30, 2023. Less than 2 months ago, Category 1 Hurricane Debby also moved ashore in the same general area of Florida. With Helene, a potentially catastrophic storm surge may occur along and to the east of where the eye crosses the Gulf Coast, with notable surge-related impacts also expected along the west coast of Florida’s peninsula. In addition, a significant inland push of hurricane-force winds (74 mph or greater) is expected across north-central Florida and southwestern Georgia, with likely impacts on timber and crops such as cotton and pecans. Damaging winds could reach higher elevations of the southern Appalachians. After punching inland, Helene should veer northwestward and decelerate due to interaction with a disturbance over the lower Mississippi Valley, heightening the risk of Southeastern flooding. Storm-total rainfall could broadly reach 6 to 12 inches, with locally higher amounts.

During the next 5 days, much of the remainder of the country will experience warm, dry weather, ideal for summer crop maturation and harvesting, as well as winter wheat planting. However, lack of soil moisture for the establishment of winter grains and cover crops will remain a concern in drought-affected areas.

The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for October 1 – 5 calls for near- or above-normal temperatures nationwide, with the Southwest having the greatest likelihood of experiencing warm weather. Meanwhile, near- or below-normal precipitation across much of the country should contrast with wetter-than-normal weather a few areas, including western Washington, peninsular Florida, and much of the Northeast.