Live Cattle: It remains obvious that cattlemen are bullish cattle. US consumers are in the midst of shifting uncomfortably in discretionary spending due to increased inflation and especially energy. Futures traders were spurred this morning, but seemingly not hard enough to keep up the gallop. The above seems to create further division between cattle prices and the unknown, and most likely unintended, consequences of current events.
Feeder Cattle: Price action was interesting in the feeders. Whatever the USDA announcement was, it gave futures traders a reason to shore up basis a little more. Unfortunately, not all of the gains held. I believe there are too many actions being made by world leaders that will produce unforeseen and unintended consequences, even if eventually the intended consequences are realized, to assume unlimited risk. Therefore, keep being bullish cattle and keep a good scotch under the wheels when pushing a heavy load up hill.
Corn: Pretty much all were lethargic today. Energy is taking front and center and everything else is simply trading around it.
Energy: Higher again today in all the energies. I can't think of many that aren't on edge with the President's ability to move markets. Buying needed input costs today could as easily be sharply lower as higher before weeks end. Fuel is a huge ordeal with farmers gearing up to plant over 180 million acres. The same for cattle producers with trucking an integral part of production.
Bonds: Bonds plummeted today as energy continues to be the inflationary component of the economy. I can't see much in the way of employment increase, wage increase, debt decrease, or much of anything that would lead me to believe the current event is bullish the US economy or consumer. Even if the current events subside, what is the main goal of the President? To bring down high prices. So, I'm not sure what to wish for.
Christopher B. Swift is a commodity broker and consultant with Swift Trading Company in Nashville, TN. Mr. Swift authors the daily commentaries "Mid Day Cattle Comment" and "Shootin' the Bull" commentary found on his website @ www.shootinthebull.com
This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.” Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.
