LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
For 2026, total red meat and poultry production is raised as higher beef and pork production is partially offset by lower broiler and turkey production. Beef production is raised on higher slaughter of steers and heifers, increased cow slaughter, and slightly heavier dressed weights. The USDA’s January Cattle report estimated that the 2025 calf crop was lower than the previous year, but as of January 1, more cattle held outside feedlots were available to be placed during the first half of 2026. Pork production is raised on higher slaughter and slightly heavier dressed weights during the first half of the year based on recent slaughter data. Broiler production is lowered for the first quarter of 2026 on recent production and hatchery data. Turkey production is also lowered for the first quarter of the year on production data and Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling.
Beef imports are raised for 2026 on continued strong demand for lean processing beef and the recent agreement between the United States and Argentina that increases its beef import quota. Beef exports are unchanged. Pork exports are raised on more exportable supplies and improved competitiveness. Broiler exports are reduced on recent trade data and more competition expected in key markets. The turkey export forecast is unchanged.
For 2026, fed-cattle prices are raised for all four quarters on recent prices and continued demand strength. Hog prices are raised for all four quarters on strong pork demand and higher prices in the cattle sector. Broiler prices are unchanged for 2026, while turkey prices are raised for the first quarter on recent prices.
COARSE GRAINS:
This month’s 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is for greater exports and lower ending stocks. Exports are raised 100 million bushels to 3.3 billion reflecting sales and shipments to date. Export sales and inspection data continued to show robust foreign demand during January and imply total shipments during the September-January period will most likely exceed 1.3 billion bushels. With no supply changes and use rising, corn ending stocks are down 100 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is virtually unchanged at 1.590 billion tons. The 2025/26 foreign coarse grain supply and use outlook is essentially unchanged relative to last month. Foreign corn production is down fractionally as a decline for Mexico is mostly offset by an increase for the EU. Barley production is raised for Argentina but lowered for Turkey. Corn exports for 2025/26 are raised for the United States but lowered for Ukraine.
Corn imports are higher for Iran, Mexico, Turkey, Lebanon, and Vietnam but lowered for the EU. Barley exports are raised for Argentina and Russia. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher reflecting increases for Ukraine and Iran partly offset by a decline for Mexico. Global corn stocks, at 289.0 million tons, are down 1.9 million.
WHEAT:
The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for unchanged supplies, modestly lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and slightly higher ending stocks. Domestic use is lowered on reduced food use as indicated by the NASS Flour Milling Products report, issued on February 2. This reduction is partially offset by a fractional increase in seed use. Ending stocks are raised to 931 million bushels, 9 percent higher than last year and the largest since 2019/20. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price remains at $4.90 per bushel.
