LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
The forecast for 2025 red meat and poultry production is raised as higher pork and beef production are partially offset by lower poultry production. Changes in the estimates reflect November production data and preliminary estimates of slaughter numbers and weights for December.
For 2026, beef production is raised on heavier dressed weights. Heavier weights will more than offset reduced fed cattle slaughter in the second-half of the year. USDA’s Cattle report, which will be released January 30, will provide an indication of the number of cattle available for placement during 2026 as well as producer intentions to retain heifers for the breeding herd. Pork production is raised based on data provided in the December Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Production during the first half of the year is raised on the higher-than-expected pig crops reported during the third and fourth quarters of 2025. Production during the second-half of 2026 is raised based on farrowing intentions reported for the first half of 2026 and the expectation of steadily increasing litter rates. Broiler production is raised on hatchery data. Turkey production is raised on recent production and hatchery data.
The beef import forecast for 2025 is raised based on recent trade data. Increased beef imports are carried over into 2026 on more expected shipments from Oceania and South America. Beef exports for 2025 are lowered based on recent trade data, with the 2026 outlook also reduced on increased export competition. Pork exports are lowered for the fourth quarter of 2025 on recent trade data but raised for 2026 on higher domestic production and improved competitiveness in international markets. Broiler exports are lowered slightly for 2025 but are unchanged for 2026. Turkey exports are unchanged.
Price estimates for 2025 are adjusted to reflect data through December. Cattle prices for 2026 are raised on recent price data for the first quarter and tighter fed cattle supplies expected in the second-half of the year. Hog prices are unchanged for the year, supported by domestic and international demand. Broiler prices are unchanged. Turkey prices are raised as higher prices in 2025 carry over into 2026.
COARSE GRAINS:
This month’s 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, higher feed and residual use, reduced food, seed, and industrial use, and greater ending stocks. Corn production is estimated at 17.0 billion bushels, up 269 million on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 186.5 bushels per acre and a 1.3-million acre rise in harvested area. Since the July 2025 WASDE, harvested area has surged 4.5 million acres. Notably, the record crop in 2025 exceeds the prior high set in 2023 by 1.7 billion bushels or over 40 million tons.
Total corn use is raised 90 million bushels to 16.4 billion. Feed and residual use is up 100 million bushels to 6.2 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September/November quarter as reflected by the Grain Stocks report. Food, seed, and industrial use is down slightly reflecting reductions in the amount of corn used for glucose and dextrose and high fructose corn syrup. With supply rising more than use, corn stocks are boosted 198 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 10 cents to $4.10 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast up 14.8 million tons to 1.591 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for greater production, virtually unchanged trade, and higher ending stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with an increase for WASDE-667-2 China, where production is raised to a record 301.2 million tons based on the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2025/26 are higher, mostly reflecting an increase for China. Global corn stocks, at 290.9 million tons, are raised 11.8 million.
WHEAT:
The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports, and larger ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised 4 million bushels on stock revisions in today’s NASS Grain Stocks report. Feed and residual use is reduced 20 million bushels to 100 million based on smaller-than-expected first quarter disappearance and residual indicated in the same report. Seed use is lowered 1 million bushels to 61 million, partly based on the NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report. Exports are unchanged at 900 million bushels, but there are offsetting by-class changes. Projected ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 926 million, up 8 percent from the previous year. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $4.90.
