The January 23rd USDA Cattle on Feed report is expected to show a tighter supply, with total January 1 inventory at 11.4 Million head which is about 3% lower year-over-year. Projections indicate December 2025 placements will be approximately 6% lower, while December marketings are expected to be 2% higher due to an extra slaughter day.
Key Estimates for the January 2026 Report:
- Total Cattle on Feed: Expected to be >2% from a year ago.
- December Placements: Projected to be roughly 5% lower than the previous year.
- December Marketings: Anticipated to be about 2% higher than last year.
Market Drivers:
- Reduced Supply: Placements are driven lower by fewer available feeder cattle and continued, long-term impacts on imports from Mexico.
- Calendar Effect: The higher marketing estimate is largely attributed to one additional slaughter day in December 2025.
- Inventory Trends: The report is expected to continue the trend of decreasing total cattle on feed, reflecting, in part, the tightest feeder supplies in years.
