LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
The forecast for 2025 red meat and poultry production is raised as higher poultry and beef production are partially offset by lower pork production. Third-quarter production figures reflect official slaughter and production data. Beef production is raised on a faster rate of slaughter for both fed and non-fed cattle for the fourth quarter, as well as higher dressed weights. Pork production is lowered on a slower rate of slaughter based on data through early December. Broiler production is raised based on official data through September, but no change is made to the fourth-quarter forecast. Turkey production is increased on official third-quarter production totals, partially offset by lower fourth-quarter production due to additional outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling through early December.
For 2026, beef production is raised, primarily on higher dressed weights. Pork production for 2026 is unchanged. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, to be published December 23, 2025, will provide estimates of the pig crops and producer farrowing intentions affecting production in the upcoming year. Broiler production is raised for 2026, as the uptick during the second-half of 2025 suggests expansion into next year. Turkey production is lowered, as HPAI-related culling is expected to reduce the breeding flock and production capacity throughout 2026.
The beef import forecast for 2025 is lowered on official trade data reported through August. The beef import forecast for 2026 is raised, as the removal of certain tariffs on beef products from key beef suppliers is expected to encourage additional shipments to the United States. Beef exports for 2025 are reduced based on recent trade data, with the reductions carrying over into the second half of 2026. Pork exports are lowered for 2025, as lower third-quarter shipments based on recent trade data are partially offset by higher expected demand in the fourth quarter. The stronger demand is expected to carry into 2026, increasing 2026 pork exports. Broiler exports in 2025 are increased based on recent trade data, with the increases expected to carry over into 2026 as well. Turkey exports are raised slightly for 2025 on recent trade data but are unchanged for 2026.
Cattle prices are lowered for 2025 and 2026 based on recent price data and the announcement of reduced slaughter plant capacity expected to occur in early 2026. Hog prices are reduced in the fourth quarter of 2025 and first quarter of 2026 based on recent prices, but outlying forecasts remain unchanged. Broiler price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged. The turkey price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025 is raised on recent prices, with tightening supplies expected to support prices during the first quarter of 2026.
COARSE GRAINS:
This month’s 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is for greater exports and lower ending stocks. Exports are raised 125 million bushels to 3.2 billion reflecting shipments to date. Export inspection data showed robust foreign demand during November and implies total shipments during the September-November quarter will likely exceed 800 million bushels, surpassing the prior high set during 2007. With no supply changes and use rising, corn ending stocks are down 125 million bushels to 2.0 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.00 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast down slightly to 1.576 billion tons. The 2025/26 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, trade, and higher ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is cut with declines for Ukraine, Canada, Nigeria, Indonesia, and Senegal partially offset by increases for the EU, Russia, and Zimbabwe. Ukraine corn production is sharply lower with reductions to both area and yield based on reported government data to date, where harvest has been slow as a result of wet conditions in key growing areas. Canada corn is reduced based on the latest information from Statistics Canada. The EU is raised reflecting increases for Spain, Hungary, Romania, and Poland. Foreign barley production is higher with increases for Canada, the EU, and Australia.
Corn exports for 2025/26 are raised for the United States but lowered for Ukraine. Corn imports are higher for Colombia with cuts for the EU and Zimbabwe. Barley exports are raised for Australia, Canada, and the EU while Ukraine is reduced. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher based on an increase for Argentina partly offset by declines for Ukraine and Canada. Global corn stocks, at 279.2 million tons, are down 2.2 million.
WHEAT:
All of the supply and use categories for 2025/26 U.S. wheat are unchanged this month. However, there are offsetting by-class revisions for both feed and residual use and exports. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price remains at $5.00 per bushel.
This month’s 2025/26 global wheat outlook is for higher supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase 7.5 million tons to 1,097.8 million on larger production from several major exporting countries. Canada is raised 3.0 million tons to a record 40.0 million on the final 2025/26 production forecast from Statistics Canada. Argentina is increased 2.0 million tons to a record 24.0 million on widespread favorable conditions throughout the growing season, especially in Buenos Aires, the largest wheat producing region. The EU is raised 1.7 million tons to 144.0 million on updated official government statistics for several countries. Both Australia and Russia are increased 1.0 million tons to 37.0 and 87.5 million, respectively.
Global 2025/26 consumption is raised 4.1 million tons to 823.0 million, primarily on higher feed and residual use for several of the aforementioned countries. World trade is 1.5 million tons higher at 218.7 million on greater exports for Australia, Canada, and Argentina more than offsetting reductions for Turkey and Ukraine. Projected 2025/26 global ending stocks are raised 3.4 million tons to 274.9 million, mainly on increases for several exporting countries.
