LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
The forecast for 2025 red meat and poultry production is lowered from the previous September report with lower beef, pork, and turkey production forecasts partially offset by higher broiler production. Beef production is lowered, as reduced steer and heifer slaughter and lower weights are partially offset by higher expected cow and bull slaughter. The pork production forecast is lowered on a slower pace of slaughter through early November more than offsetting higher dressed weights. Slaughter forecasts also reflect updated 2025 hog inventories and pig crops provided in the September 25 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Broiler production forecasts for the third and fourth quarters are raised based on production data reported through August and daily slaughter data reported through early November. Turkey production is lowered on production data reported through August and Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling through early November. Egg production is lowered based on production data reported through August and HPAI cases reported through early November.
For 2026, beef production is lowered on reduced steer and heifer slaughter, with the slower rate of fed cattle marketings expected to carry into the first half of 2026. Pork production is reduced on lower expected hog supplies for the year, with reduced farrowing expectations for late-2025 and early-2026 indicated in the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Broiler production is raised as the recent increased in slaughter rates is expected to carry into 2026. Turkey production is reduced for the first and second quarters based on recent HPAI-related culling. Egg production is unchanged from the previous report.
The beef import forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are unchanged from the previous report based on U.S. Census data reported through July. Beef exports are reduced in the third quarter of 2025 but remain unchanged for the outlying quarters of 2025 and 2026. Pork exports are unchanged for 2025 but are reduced for 2026 on tighter domestic supplies. Broiler exports are raised for 2025 on recent data, with higher exports carrying into 2026. Turkey exports are reduced for 2025 and 2026 on the most recent data and tighter domestic supplies.
Livestock and poultry prices for 2025 are updated to reflect reported monthly data through the third quarter. Cattle prices are reduced for the fourth quarter of 2025 based on recent prices, with reduced prices carrying into 2026. The fourth quarter hog price forecast is lowered on reported daily prices through early November, but the 2026 price forecast is raised on tighter expected hog supplies. The fourth quarter broiler price forecast is lowered on recent prices and raised production expectations, with reductions continuing into 2026. Turkey prices are raised for the fourth quarter of 2025 on recent price levels, with reduced production expected to support higher prices in 2026. Egg prices are reduced on lower third quarter prices continuing into the beginning of the fourth quarter. The 2026 egg price forecast is also reduced.
COARSE GRAINS:
This month’s 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is for increases in supply, exports, and ending stocks. Total supply is 144 million bushels higher as larger beginning stocks are partially offset by lower production. Beginning stocks are 207 million bushels higher based on the September 30 Grain Stocks report. Corn production is forecast at 16.8 billion bushels, down 62 million from September on a 0.7-bushel reduction in yield to 186.0 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain is unchanged at 90.0 million acres. Total use is up 100 million bushels reflecting a higher export forecast. Exports are raised 100 million bushels to 3.1 billion reflecting shipments to date. Inspection data imply exports set a monthly record during September and again in October. With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are up 44 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 10 cents to $4.00 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 3.2 million tons higher to 1.576 billion tons. This month’s 2025/26 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, virtually unchanged trade, and smaller ending stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast higher reflecting increases for Mexico and the EU that are partly offset by a decline for Egypt. Mexico production is raised reflecting greater area expectations. The EU is higher as an increase for France is partially offset by a reduction for Germany. Foreign barley production is raised reflecting increases for the EU, Russia, Argentina, and Ukraine that are partly offset by a cut for the United Kingdom.
Major global trade changes include greater corn exports for the United States and South Africa but a reduction for Ukraine. Corn imports are raised for Iran, Egypt, Venezuela, and the United Kingdom, but lowered for China, the EU, and Thailand. Foreign corn ending stocks are reduced, mostly reflecting a decline for China that is partly offset by increases for Argentina, Mexico, and Ukraine. Global corn ending stocks are down fractionally to 281.3 million tons.
WHEAT:
The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies and higher ending stocks, with no change to use. Supplies are raised on greater production, up 58 million bushels to 1,985 million, on a record all wheat yield based on the September 30 Small Grains Summary. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $5.00 as larger global supplies reduce price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.
The global wheat outlook for 2025/26 is for larger supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase 11.7 million tons to 1,090.3 million on higher production for most of the major wheat exporters including Kazakhstan, Argentina, the EU, the United States, Australia, Russia, and Canada. Global consumption is increased 4.3 million tons to 818.9 million, primarily on higher feed and residual use for Russia, Kazakhstan, and the EU. World trade is 2.5 million tons larger at 217.2 million, primarily on greater exports for Argentina, Australia, and Kazakhstan that are only partly offset by a reduction for Russia. Projected 2025/26 global ending stocks are raised 7.4 million tons to 271.4 million, resulting in what would be the first year-to-year increase in global wheat stocks since 2019/20.
