LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
The forecast for 2025 red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month, with lower beef and pork production more than offsetting raised poultry production forecasts. Pork production is reduced on a slower rate of slaughter for the third and fourth quarters and lighter dressed weights for the third quarter. The pork production forecast for 2026 is unchanged. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on September 25, providing a further indication of hog supplies available for slaughter in the first half of 2026. Beef production in 2025 is lowered on reduced steer and heifer slaughter and lower cow slaughter for the third and fourth quarters. Beef production in 2026 is raised slightly, with higher fed cattle slaughter more than offsetting lower bull slaughter.
Broiler production is raised for the third and fourth quarters on recent production and hatchery data, as well as higher expected weights. The increase is carried into the broiler production forecasts for 2026. Turkey production is raised for the second half of 2025 on recent production data. For 2026, turkey production is lowered on recent hatchery data indicating a relatively slower rate of growth for next year.
The beef import forecast is raised for 2025 on continued strong demand for lean processing beef, but the forecast for 2026 is unchanged. Beef exports are reduced for 2025 and 2026 due to expectations of fewer supplies and increased price competition. Pork exports are unchanged for 2025 and 2026. Broiler exports are raised for 2025 based on recent trade data, but 2026 is unchanged. Turkey exports are raised for the third quarter of 2025 on recent data, but no changes are made to outlying quarters.
Cattle prices are forecast higher in the third and fourth quarters of 2025, with higher prices carrying into 2026. Hog prices are raised for the fourth quarter of 2025, based on recent price strength, reduced pork supplies, and support from higher cattle prices. Higher hog prices are expected for the first and second quarters of 2026, as well. Broiler prices in 2025 are forecast lower on recent price weakness and the higher production outlook, which is carried into 2026. Turkey price forecasts are raised for the third and fourth quarters of 2025 on recent prices and relatively tight supplies, but price forecasts are unchanged for 2026.
COARSE GRAINS:
This month’s 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is for greater supplies, larger exports, and a slight reduction in ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2025/26 are 20 million bushels higher based on a lower use forecast for 2024/25, with reductions in imports and corn used for ethanol partially offset by an increase in exports. Corn production for 2025/26 is forecast at 16.8 billion bushels, up 72 million from last month as a 2.1-bushel reduction in yield to 186.7 bushels per acre is more than offset by a 1.3 million acre increase in harvested area to 90.0 million acres. If realized, harvested area would be the highest since 1933 and planted area of 98.7 million acres the highest since 1936.
Total U.S. corn use for 2025/26 is forecast up 100 million bushels to 16.1 billion. Exports are raised 100 million bushels to a record 3.0 billion reflecting U.S. export competitiveness and robust early-season demand. With rising supply more than offset by greater use, ending stocks are down 7 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $3.90 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 0.9 million tons higher to 1.573 billion.
This month’s 2025/26 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, slightly smaller trade, and larger stocks relative to last month.
WHEAT:
The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat this month is for unchanged supplies and domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Exports are raised by 25 million bushels to 900 million on a continued strong pace of sales and shipments of Hard Red Winter wheat. Projected 2025/26 ending stocks are lowered 25 million bushels to 844 million and are now slightly less than last year.
The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price is reduced by $0.20 per bushel to $5.10 on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.
This month’s 2025/26 global wheat outlook is for higher supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks.
