In some locations, cattle feeders are outbidding ranchers for heifers in order to keep feedyard pens full as possible.
Garth Ruff -- Ohio State University
As I visit with cattle producers this summer, the conversation that continues to be in the back of everyone’s mind is the topic of herd expansion. Should we plan on keeping additional heifers this fall? There will be some jockeying for position as to who decides to add cow numbers. As it relates to heifer marketing this fall, Kenny Rogers’ song the gambler comes to mind, “You got to know when to hold them, know when to fold them.”
This isn’t a yes or no answer as there are several factors in play, economics, feed availability and quality, and individual herd dynamics.
Economics: Thus far looking at USDA reports there is no sign of herd expansion at this point. High fed cattle prices have incentivized the selling of heifers as feeder cattle prices remain historically strong. When expansion does happen the supply for feeders will become tighter, driving demand for a limited cattle supply. High feeder prices make it tempting not to retain any more heifers than the minimum needed based on culling rate.
One strategy that may be worth considering, if feed is available, is to develop more replacement females than needed, especially if they are from a herd with proven genetics. Keep the females needed and then market the rest as replacements to other herds.
Here in Ohio in 2024, we sold 56 bred heifers for $2,961 per head and young bred cows for over $2,800 per head at the OCA Replacement Female Sale. As the cow-calf sector has seen record profit margins there has been interest in genetic improvement from the female side.
Given some reports from the west combined with feeder cattle prices, I have to think last year’s bred heifers were a bargain compared to what they should be worth now. Recent market commentary from Billings, Montana indicated that feeders are outbidding ranchers for heifers at auction in order to keep feedyard pens full as possible.
Feed Availability and Quality: After the drought last year feed quantity was a great concern for many of the heavy cow areas of the state. In 2025 the greater concern is feed quality. With the wet spring and early summer, it has been a challenge to make hay and a timely fashion. It’s August 1 and there are still a few first cutting hay fields in SE Ohio being baled as we speak. Get your hay tested. A forage analysis will determine the level of supplementation needed to carry additional females through the winter.
If feed is limiting but there is still desire to expand the cow herd, it could be more cost effective to sell high value feeder heifers and purchase those bred females. By purchasing breds rather than developing heifers managing herd nutrition is much simpler. Growing heifers need higher quality feed an mature cows and should be managed separately to ensure a higher plane of nutrition.
Herd Dynamics: What is the average cow age of your herd? How many old cows do you have? Two questions that every cow-calf operator should know the answer to. Older cows are often some of the most productive cows in the herd, but there comes a time when her production plateaus and her body begins to wear down. Given the cull market, those older cows that have begun to lose a step are high value capital as things stand.
A third question to consider is what is your average cull rate? A 20 cow herd that culls 3 cows a year has a 15% cull rate. On average 15-20% will catch many of the cow herds in the U.S. Locally, with smaller herd sizes 10% maybe more accurate. Either way, the only way to grow a cow herd is to replace more females than you cull in a production year.
At some point this cow herd will expand as it has over the various cattle cycles over the past century. Whether it happens sooner or later, that remains to be seen.
Will we get to pre-COVID cow numbers? I don’t think so. Carcass weights have increased and unless packing economics dictate it, we aren’t going to make these fed cattle any smaller. Regardless, it is an exciting time to be in the cattle business and the fall marketing window looks to be one unlike any other we have ever seen.
Source: Ohio State University
