Number of calves it takes to pay for a bred female - Source: CattleFax, 2025.
Mark Johnson, Oklahoma State University Extension
There is some evidence of an increase in heifer retention with improved drought conditions across much of the Central Plains and summer video auctions reporting a smaller percentage of heifer calves. Retention does not appear to be aggressive.
With the calf market on pace for another year of record prices providing incentive, herd rebuilding remains sluggish compared to past cycles. Lingering drought continues to limit forage availability in key regions, while high interest rates and the substantial capital required to develop or purchase bred females further suppress expansion.
Many producers remain wary of a repeat of the post-2014 market correction, adding a layer of caution to long-term decision-making. Even with bred-female values at record highs, relative to calf prices, bred females may still be undervalued — a sign of producer hesitation rather than a lack of economic feasibility.
An excellent metric to consider when purchasing bred heifers is the number of calves it takes to pay for the purchase.
CattleFax recently reported that in 2025, that figure is projected to average just 2.75 calves, well below the long-term average of 4.5 and far beneath the 2015 peak of nine calves.
This ratio is likely to rise over time, driven by higher bred-female prices, moderating calf values, or a combination of both. If feed resources allow, this dynamic suggests adding females to the herd today may be the best time from a breakeven perspective to expand.
Replacement heifers are expensive; not only with respect to dollars invested, but also the expenditure of time and labor involved. Recent market reports reveal 550-pound (lb.) weaned heifer calves selling for well more than $2,000 per head. Those heifer calves are still two years away from weaning their first calf, if all goes according to plan.
Accordingly, operations looking to add inventory may find purchasing bred heifers a better option in the current market.
What should bred heifers be worth?
Assuming weaned calves remain at a value of $2,000-$2,500 per head the next few years, your annual cost of running a cow will largely determine what you should invest in a bred heifer. The annual cost of maintaining a beef cow is highly variable and has increased tremendously during the past five years. Variable costs such as fuel, fertilizer and herbicides have been blamed as the primary culprits. However, fixed costs such as equipment, hired labor and land have increased, as well.
Total economic costs associated with U.S. cow-calf production for 2018 were estimated to range from $910 per cow for operations with 500 or more cows to $2,099 per cow for operations with 20-49 cows. These results show significant economies of scale, with costs per cow declining with increased herd size.
The Kansas Farm Management Association estimates the annual cost of maintaining a cow to be approximately $1,551, according to data collected in 2024.
Market fundamentals are strong for a continued robust cattle market until cow inventories start to climb. Currently, there is not much indication of that happening any time soon.
That being said, what bred heifers are worth to your operation (and how many calves a female needs to raise to recapture your initial purchase price) will depend on how much profit she nets each year per calf rather than on the gross value of each calf she produces.
