World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

WASDE: For 2025 & 2026, Cattle Prices are Forecasted to be Higher

Thu June 12, 2025

LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:

The total U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast for 2025 is lowered from last month. Beef production is lowered on reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the second quarter and reduced cow slaughter for the remainder of the year. Pork production is unchanged from the previous month. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, to be released on June 26, will provide indications of supplies of hogs for slaughter in the outlying quarters as well as into early 2026. Broiler production is raised on recent production and hatchery data. Turkey production is lowered on recent hatchery data.

For 2026, red meat and poultry production is raised on higher beef and turkey production. Beef production is raised primarily on higher feedlot placements in the second half of 2025 and early 2026, which are expected to result in higher steer and heifer slaughter for 2026. Turkey production is raised on improved returns. The pork and broiler production forecasts are unchanged.

The beef export forecast for 2025 is raised on recent trade data and continued strong demand from key export markets. The beef import forecast is also raised on strong imports from Oceania and South America, as well as robust domestic demand for lean processing beef. The pork export forecast is reduced for 2025 on recent trade data and increased export competition. For 2026, pork exports are also reduced on continued export competition. The 2025 broiler export forecast is raised based on recent trade data indicating higher shipments in the second quarter. The broiler export forecast for 2026 is unchanged. The turkey export forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are lowered as higher U.S. prices are expected to make exports less competitive in destination markets.

Cattle price forecasts for 2025 are raised on recent price strength and continued demand for cattle. The increased price forecasts are carried over into 2026 as well. Hog price forecasts are raised for 2025, based on recent prices, as well as relatively tight pork inventories and increased cattle prices supporting hog demand. Raised hog price forecasts carry over into early 2026. Broiler price forecasts are raised for the second half of 2025 and into 2026, supported by higher prices of competing animal proteins. Turkey price forecasts are also raised for 2025 and 2026 based on recent price strength. The egg price forecast for 2025 is lowered slightly for the third quarter based on recent prices, but the price forecast for 2026 is unchanged.

COARSE GRAINS:

The 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is little changed from last month, with lower beginning and ending stocks. Corn area and yield forecasts are unchanged. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 30, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area. Beginning stocks are down 50 million bushels reflecting a forecast increase in exports for 2024/25. Exports are raised 50 million bushels, based on reported U.S. Census Bureau shipments through the month of April, inspection data during the month of May, and current outstanding sales. With no use changes for 2025/26, ending stocks are lowered 50 million bushels to 1.8 billion. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.20 per bushel.

WHEAT:

The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are raised on minimally higher output as all wheat production is projected at 1,921 million bushels, up 115,000 bushels from last month as higher Soft Red Winter and White Winter production offset lower Hard Red Winter (HRW) production. The all wheat yield is virtually unchanged at 51.6 bushels per acre. Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 825 million on strong early 2025/26 sales, especially for HRW. Projected 2025/26 ending stocks are lowered 25 million bushels to 898 million but are still 7 percent above last year. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price is $0.10 per bushel higher at $5.40 on the reduced stocks.