August ‘World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’
LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
The forecast for 2024 red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month. Beef production is raised on higher steer and heifer and cow slaughter, which more than offsets lighter dressed weights. Pork production is reduced reflecting lower slaughter and reduced dressed weights in the third quarter. Broiler production is raised for the third and fourth quarters reflecting recent production and hatchery data. For 2025, beef production was lowered, reflecting reduced steer and heifer slaughter in the first quarter.
Beef imports for 2024 are adjusted to reflect reported trade data through the first half of the year, as well as higher expected imports for the third and fourth quarters. The beef export forecast is also raised for 2024, reflecting continued strength in global beef demand. Beef import and export forecasts are unchanged for 2025. Pork exports for 2024 are reduced based on official data through June, as well as expected reduced competitiveness in several key export markets in the second half of the year. The pork export forecast for 2025 is also reduced. Broiler exports for 2024 are raised based on stronger-than-expected exports during the second quarter, which is expected to carry into the third quarter.
Cattle price forecasts for 2024 are raised for both the third and fourth quarters based on recent stronger-than-expected demand for fed cattle. The higher price forecasts are carried into the first quarter of 2025. The 2024 hog price forecast is raised based on higher hog prices in the fourth quarter, but the price forecast is reduced for 2025. Broiler price forecasts for 2024 are raised for the second half of the year based on stronger-than-previously-expected prices through July.
COARSE GRAINS:
This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, lower domestic use, greater exports, and smaller ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2024/25 are 10 million bushels lower based on a slightly higher use forecast for 2023/24. For 2023/24, higher corn exports are partly offset by reductions in corn used for glucose and dextrose and starch. Corn production for 2024/25 is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, up 47 million from last month as a 0.7-million-acre decline in harvested area is more than offset by an increase in yield.
The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 183.1 bushels per acre, is 2.1 bushels higher than last month’s projection. Among the major producing states, today’s Crop Production report indicates that yields are forecast above a year ago in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, and South Dakota. Yields in Ohio are forecast below a year ago.
Total U.S. corn use for 2024/25 is forecast 60 million bushels higher to 15.0 billion. Corn used for glucose and dextrose and starch is projected lower based on observed use during 2023/24. Exports for 2024/25 are raised 75 million bushels to 2.3 billion reflecting U.S. export competitiveness and relatively low world market prices. With supply rising less than use, ending stocks are down 24 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $4.20 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 8.1 million tons lower to 1.504 billion. This month’s 2024/25 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, trade, and ending stocks relative to last month.
WHEAT:
The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for lower supplies, slightly higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and smaller ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on lower production, down 26 million bushels to 1,982 million, as reduced harvested area was only partly offset by a higher average yield. Harvested area is lowered 0.9 million acres to 37.9 million and the all wheat yield is raised 0.4 bushels per acre to 52.2.
Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are reduced 28 million bushels to 828 million. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.70 per bushel.
Projected 2024/25 global ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 256.6 million, the lowest since 2015/16.
