19.91% of the Lower 48 States are in Drought

Heat continued to be the dominating feature in the Southwest and Plains. Temperatures were 2 to 6 degrees above normal, with isolated areas seeing temperatures of 6 to 8 degrees above normal. The Southwest reached near record temperatures once again, with the highest 1-day maximum temperature for the week reaching 120 degrees in Death Valley and 110 degrees in surrounding areas. The West and Plains missed out on much of the precipitation that fell this week. These hot and dry conditions have leant themselves to increased fire potential and wildfires. The southern Plains, missing out on the precipitation and experienced above-normal temperature, leading to more drying and degradation. Similar degradations occurred along the western boarder of the High Plains due to the lack of precipitation, poor soil moisture, and declining streamflows. The Southeast on the other hand received substantial precipitation, vastly improving lingering dryness in the area. The northern Appalachian region saw 1-category degradations where streamflows in north-central West Virginia are critically low.

Looking Ahead...

Over the next five days (August 1-6), the Midwest, Northeast, and eastern Southeast are expected to see 1 to 2 inches of rain with heavier amounts predicted in the eastern Midwest and southern Florida. The rest of the Southeast will see more modest amounts of precipitation, deviating from their previous weeks of heavy precipitation. There is currently an Atlantic Disturbance that the National Hurricane Center show a greater than 60 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next two days (August 1-2) which could bring heavy rainfall along the Atlantic Coast in the coming week. Isolated areas from Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa to Kansas and higher elevations of Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona are expected to receive around 1 inch of precipitation. Otherwise, precipitation will be light and spotty leading to much of the West, Texas, southern Oklahoma and Arkansas missing out on the precipitation.

The 6-10 day outlook heavily favors above-normal temperatures from the Pacific Northwest across to the Southeast with conditions becoming near normal across the central U.S. and leaning to below normal temperatures further north toward Canada. Much of Alaska is expected to be above normal with below-normal temperatures possible to the southwest. Similarly, Hawaii is leaning towards above-normal temperatures. Many of the lower 48 states are leaning towards above-normal precipitation, centering around Wyoming and Colorado, along with the Atlantic Coast, which could see remnants of the Tropical Disturbance currently in the Caribbean. Alaska’s border with Canada is seeing up to a 70 percent chance of below normal precipitation, with the probability increasing in the west and southwest. Hawaii probability of seeing below-normal precipitation is 33 to 40 percent.