July ‘World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’
CATTLE:
The total U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast for 2024 is lowered slightly from last month with lower forecast broiler and turkey production more than offsetting higher beef and pork. Pork production is raised this month based on increased weights for the second half of the year. Beef production is raised with higher expected steer and heifer slaughter more than offsetting reduced cow slaughter.
For 2025, beef production is raised on higher expected steer and heifer slaughter, partially offset by lower cow slaughter. Beef exports are raised on stronger-than-expected demand in a number of key markets. There are no changes to beef trade forecasts for 2025.
For 2024, cattle prices are raised on recent price data and expectations that demand for fed cattle will remain firm. This price strength is expected to carry into 2025, with raised price forecasts.
CORN:
This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and slightly lower ending stocks. Corn beginning stocks are lowered 145 million bushels, mostly reflecting a greater use forecast for 2023/24. Exports are raised 75 million bushels based on current outstanding sales and shipments to date. Feed and residual use is up 75 million bushels based on indicated disappearance in the June Grain Stocks report.
Corn production for 2024/25 is forecast up 240 million bushels on greater planted and harvested area from the June Acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 181.0 bushels per acre. Total use is raised 100 million bushels with increases to both feed and residual use and exports based on larger supplies and lower expected prices. With use rising slightly more than supply, ending stocks are down 5 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $4.30 per bushel.
WHEAT:
The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, domestic use, exports, and ending stocks. Supplies are raised on increased wheat production and beginning stocks. All wheat production is raised 134 million bushels to 2,008 million, on an increase in harvested area and higher yields.
Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are raised 98 million bushels to 856 million, up 22 percent from last year and the highest in five years. The projected 2024/25 season-average farm price is reduced $0.80 per bushel to $5.70 on higher stocks, recent declines in futures and cash prices, and lower projected U.S. corn prices.
