June ‘World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’
LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
The total U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast for 2024 is raised from last month. Beef production is virtually unchanged for the year with largely offsetting changes in the quarters as lower expected slaughter is largely offset by higher dressed weights. Pork production is raised for the second quarter on a more rapid pace of slaughter and slightly higher dressed weights. No changes were made to the outlying quarters; the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, to be released on June 27, will provide indications of supplies of hogs for slaughter in the outlying quarters as well as into early 2025. Broiler production is raised on higher bird weights and recent hatchery data. Turkey production is raised on recent hatchery data.
For 2025, the red meat and poultry production forecast is raised on higher expected beef production. The beef production forecast is raised on higher expected placements in the fourth quarter of 2024 and faster expected pace of marketings during the first half. In addition, dressed weights are expected to remain relatively high into 2025.
No changes are made to beef trade for 2024 or 2025. Pork exports are raised for 2024 on recent demand strength. Broiler export forecasts are lowered for 2024 and 2025 based on recent trade data and expectations of relatively uncompetitive prices vis-à-vis other exporters. Turkey exports are raised slightly for 2024 based on recent trade data.
The 2024 cattle price forecast is raised from last month on recent prices. Hog prices for the second and third quarter are lowered from last month on observed prices. Broiler prices are raised on expected demand strength. Turkey prices are raised on slightly improved demand.
For 2025, strength in cattle prices is carried forward into the first quarter of 2025. No changes are made to 2025 price forecasts for hogs, broilers, or turkeys.
COARSE GRAINS:
The 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The season average price received by producers remains at $4.40 per bushel. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 28, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area.
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast 1.4 million tons lower to 1.511 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, slightly higher trade, and smaller ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is marginally higher, with increases for Ukraine and Zambia partially offset by a reduction for Russia. Corn area is raised for Ukraine but lowered for Russia. Zambia is higher reflecting increases to both area and yield. Foreign barley production is cut, reflecting reductions for the EU, India, Argentina, Russia, and Ukraine that are partly offset by an increase for Australia.
WHEAT:
The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, increased exports, and lower stocks. Supplies are raised as all wheat production is forecast at 1,875 million bushels, up 17 million from last month on higher Hard Red Winter production more than offsetting reductions in Soft Red Winter and White Winter. The all wheat yield is 49.4 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushels from last month. The export forecast is raised 25 million bushels to 800 million, as U.S. wheat prices are expected to be increasingly competitive with reduced exportable Black Sea supplies. Ending stocks are lowered slightly to 758 million bushels but still significantly higher than the previous year. The 2024/25 season-average farm price is raised $0.50 per bushel to $6.50 on higher expected futures and cash prices and tightening global wheat supplies.
