April ‘World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’
LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
For 2024, red meat and poultry production is raised from last month. Beef production is raised due to heavier weights and higher slaughter. Pork production is raised on higher hog slaughter more than offsetting a slight decline in weights. The current outlook for hog slaughter in 2024 reflects the information provided in the March 28 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report that showed higher pig crops than previously reported for 2023 and continued strong growth in pigs per litter in early 2024. Broiler production is raised based on recent production and hatchery data, as well as a continuing trend of heavier bird weights. Turkey production is raised for the first quarter on recent production and hatchery data.
Beef exports are raised for 2024 based on recent trade data. Pork exports are also raised based on strong exports reported through the first two months of the year. Larger U.S. pork supplies will support exports. Broiler exports are lowered based on recent trade data and expectations that higher prices may affect trade to a number of price sensitive markets. Turkey exports are unchanged.
Cattle prices are raised for the year based on recent data and expected strength in demand. Hog prices are also raised based on reported data and stronger-than-expected demand. Broiler prices are raised based on recent price strength carrying into the rest of the year. Turkey prices are lowered based on latest reported data and continued signs of relatively weak demand.
COARSE GRAINS:
This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for greater corn used for ethanol and feed and residual use and smaller ending stocks. Corn used for ethanol is raised 25 million bushels to 5.4 billion based on data through February from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of March. Feed and residual use is increased 25 million to 5.7 billion based on indicated disappearance during the December-February quarter. With no supply changes and use rising, ending stocks are lowered 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels. The season-average farm price is lowered 5 cents to $4.70 per bushel.
WHEAT:
This month’s supply and demand outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are tightened with a reduction in projected imports by 5 million bushels to 140 million on a slower-than-expected import pace, primarily for Hard Red Winter. Domestic consumption is forecast down on lower-than-expected implied feed and residual use in the second and third quarters based on the latest NASS Grain Stocks report. As a result, annual feed and residual use is lowered 30 million bushels to 90 million. Projected 2023/24 ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 698 million, 22 percent above last year. The season average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.10.
