March ‘World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’
LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
For 2024, total red meat and poultry production forecasts are raised from last month with higher beef, pork, and broiler production more than offsetting lower turkey production. The beef production forecast is raised as lower expected slaughter in the first quarter is more than offset by higher slaughter for outlying quarters. The pork production forecast is raised based on a more rapid pace of slaughter in the first quarter, partially offset by lower weights. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 28, providing a further indication of hog supplies for slaughter in the second half of the year.
Broiler production is raised on placement and slaughter data for the first quarter and expectations that lower feed costs will support higher production later in the year. Turkey production is lowered for the first half of the year on the most recent production and hatchery data.
The beef import forecast for 2024 is raised based on recent trade data but exports are unchanged. Pork exports are raised based on the latest trade data and continued strength in shipments to several key markets. The broiler export forecast is lowered based on recent data and expectations of weakness in demand in Asia. Turkey exports are raised based on the latest trade data.
For 2024, cattle prices are raised for all quarters based on recent prices and firm demand for fed cattle. Hog prices are raised for the second and third quarters, based on current demand strength. Broiler prices are unchanged from the previous month. Turkey prices are raised for the first quarter based on recent data and lower expected production.
COARSE GRAINS:
This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered to $4.75 per bushel based on observed prices to date.
Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast 2.7 million tons lower to 1,507.4 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, larger trade, and smaller ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast lower with declines for South Africa, Ukraine, Mexico, Venezuela, and Russia that are partly offset by increases for Argentina and Syria. South Africa is down reflecting lower yield prospects. Mexico is cut based on expectations of lower winter corn area. Ukraine and Russia are reduced based on reported harvest results to date. Argentina is raised based on higher expected area. Foreign barley production is down, with reductions for Iraq and Syria that are partly offset by an increase for Australia.
Major global trade changes include higher corn exports for Ukraine and Argentina but reductions for South Africa and India. Corn imports are lowered for the EU, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and South Korea but raised for Mexico, Venezuela, and Indonesia. Barley exports are raised for Australia. Foreign corn ending stocks are lower, mostly reflecting a decline for Ukraine that is partly offset by an increase for Brazil. Global corn ending stocks, at 319.6 million tons, are down 2.4 million.
WHEAT:
The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat this month is for unchanged supplies and domestic use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Exports are reduced 15 million bushels to 710 million with reductions for Soft Red Winter and Hard Red Winter. Ending stocks are raised by an equivalent amount to 673 million bushels and are 18 percent higher than last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $7.15.
The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for larger supplies, consumption, and trade with reduced stocks. Supplies are projected to increase 0.8 million tons to 1,057.8 million, primarily on higher government production estimates for Australia, Russia, and Argentina partially offset by reductions for the EU and Serbia. Global consumption is raised 1.5 million tons to 799.0 million, mainly on higher feed and residual use for the EU, Kazakhstan, and Indonesia. World trade is raised 1.4 million tons to 212.1 million on higher exports by Ukraine, Australia, and Turkey. Projected 2023/24 global ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons to 258.8 million, the lowest since 2015/16.
