Weekly Market Summary... December 1, 2023

A look at the week’s prices, trends, and news for the cattle/beef complex.

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For the week, fed cattle trade in the Southern and Northern regions was 2.00 lower. Feeder cattle and stocker calves were about 3.50 lower. Live cattle futures and feeder cattle futures had another down week. The dressed beef cutouts and corn were also lower.
There is a lot of speculation as to why cattle futures, and to a lesser degree, cash cattle, are showing weakness when the cattle herd is significantly smaller.  It might be as simple as the ‘market’ is sensing that even the smaller cattle herd may produce more beef than there is demand.  Beef exports are weak and the American consumer is fighting inflation, high interest rates, and is saddled with record-high credit card debt, not to mention that there is still a real possibility that the U.S. economy could slide into a recession in 2024.
   

Cattle/Beef Market Velocity Trendlines +/-

Indexes track the daily market values for the past 10 & 60 days. Each daily value is the weighted total of the Gain/(Loss) for 15 market factors compared to the previous trading day.

10-Day Index Trendline

Change from Previous Day: -2.72%

Change from 10 Days Ago:  -9.62%

   

 60-Day Index Trendline

Change from 60 Days Ago: -33.75%​

Change from 60 Day High: -33.75%​

 

Fed Cattle: Light trade in the South and North was 2.00 lower at 175.00. In the 3 front months, Live Cattle futures closed the week from 0.98 to 1.85 lower. USDA’s carcass weight data showed weights averaged 936 lbs. this week, compared to 931 lbs. last week and 930 lbs. last year.
  • S: This Week: 175.00 / Month Ago: 185.00 / Year Ago: 155.00 / 5 Year Avg: 131.52
  • N: This Week: 175.00 / Month Ago: 185.00 / Year Ago: 158.00 / 5 Year Avg: 135.46
Feeder Cattle: The national average price for feeder steers was 228.69, 3.34 lower than 2 weeks ago with trade mostly 1.00 higher to 6.00 lower. In the 3 front months, Feeder Cattle futures closed the week from 4.90 to 5.50 lower.
  • This Week: 228.69 / Month Ago: 241.21 / Year Ago: 174.18 / 5 Year Avg: 161.48
Stocker Calves: The national average price for stocker steers was 270.19, 3.51 lower than 2 weeks ago with trade mostly in a range of 3.00 higher 5.00 lower.
  • This Week: 270.19 / Month Ago: 277.54 / Year Ago: 197.24 / 5 Year Avg: 185.97
CME Feeder Cattle Index: 225.89, 0.65 higher than last Friday.
  • This Week: 225.89 / Month Ago: 237.62 / Year Ago: 179.03 / 5 Year Avg: 160.15
Boxed Beef Cutouts: The Choice cutout was 0.57 lower at 297.46 and the Select cutout 3.27 lower at 265.49. The Choice/Select spread at 31.97, 2.70 wider.
  • This Week: 297.46 / Month Ago: 302.34 / Year Ago: 249.93 / 5 Year Avg: 259.10
Cutter Cow Cutout: 5.64 lower at 214.92.
Slaughter Cows: Trade mostly 2.00 higher to 3.00 lower.
Total red meat production under Federal inspection for the week ending Saturday, December 2nd, was estimated at 1110.8 million lbs. according to the USDA’s Agricultures Marketing Service. This was 20.2 percent higher than a week ago and 0.4 percent lower than a year ago.  Cumulative meat production for the year to date was 2.5 percent lower compared to the previous year.
Corn: Omaha Corn was 4.00 lower at 4.66 with March futures at 4.8575, 0.0225 higher.

 

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