September ‘World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’
LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
The forecast for 2023 red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month, on lower beef, pork, and broiler forecasts. Beef production is reduced on a slower pace of marketings in the third quarter. This decline is only partly offset by higher expected carcass weights in that quarter and higher expected cow slaughter in the third and fourth quarters. Pork production is lowered for the second half with a slower expected pace of slaughter and lighter carcass weights. Broiler production is lowered on current slaughter data and expectations of a lower number of chicks placed and lighter bird weights. Turkey production is unchanged from last month. Egg production is reduced on hatchery data. For 2024, the red meat and poultry production forecast is reduced on lower broiler production as weaker prices are expected to constrain production growth. No changes are made to beef, pork, or turkey forecasts. The slower pace of egg production growth for 2023 is expected to carry into the first part of 2024, reducing the production forecast.
Beef import forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are raised on continued strength in demand and availability of supplies in Oceania. Beef exports are lowered for 2023 and 2024 on tight domestic supplies and strong competition in Asian markets. Pork imports are increased for 2023 on the current pace of trade but are unchanged for 2024. Pork exports are lowered for both 2023 and 2024 on weaker demand. Broiler exports for 2023 and 2024 are reduced on the current pace of trade and a lower production forecast. Turkey exports are raised for 2023 and 2024 as prices are expected to be attractive for buyers.
Cattle price forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are unchanged from last month. The hog price forecast for 2023 is lowered on a sharper decline in recent prices than previously expected; however, the price forecast for 2024 is unchanged. The broiler price forecast for third quarter 2023 is raised on current prices but the forecasts for the outlying quarters, including 2024, are unchanged from last month. Turkey price forecasts for 2023 and 2024 are reduced on continued weakness in demand.
This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for slightly larger supplies and ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2023/24 are 5 million bushels lower based on mostly offsetting trade and corn used for ethanol changes for 2022/23. Corn production for 2023/24 is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, up 23 million from last month as greater harvested area more than offsets a reduction in yield. The national average yield is forecast at 173.8 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels. Harvested area for grain is forecast at 87.1 million acres, up 0.8 million. Total U.S. corn use is unchanged at 14.4 billion. With supply rising slightly and use unchanged, ending stocks are up 19 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.90 per bushel.
The 2023/24 U.S. all wheat outlook for supply and use is unchanged this month with offsetting by-class changes on exports. The projected 2023/24 season-average farm price is also unchanged at $7.50 per bushel.