June ‘World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’
LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
The total U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast for 2023 is reduced from last month as higher beef production is more than offset by lower pork and poultry production. Beef production is raised with higher expected steer and heifer, cow, and bull slaughter. Pork production is lowered slightly for the second quarter on a more rapid pace of slaughter but lower carcass weights. No changes were made to the outlying quarters; the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, to be released on June 29, will provide indications of supplies of hogs for slaughter in the outlying quarters as well as into early 2024. Broiler production is reduced on the pace of slaughter and recent hatchery data. Turkey production is reduced on recent hatchery data. The beef production forecast for 2024 is raised slightly on higher expected placements in 2023; forecasts for all other species are unchanged.
No changes are made to beef trade for 2023 or 2024. Pork exports are raised for both 2023 and 2024 on demand strength. No change is made to the broiler export forecast but turkey exports are raised slightly for 2023.
The 2023 cattle price forecast is raised from last month on firm demand. The hog price for the second quarter is raised from last month on observed prices; no changes are made to price forecasts for the outlying quarters. Broiler, turkey, and egg prices are reduced on current price data. For 2024, strength in cattle prices is carried forward from 2023; no changes are made to prices for hogs, broilers, turkeys, or eggs.
COARSE GRAINS:
The 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is little changed from last month with increases to both beginning and ending stocks. Corn area and yield forecasts are unchanged. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 30, which will provide survey based indications of planted and harvested area. Beginning stocks are up 35 million bushels reflecting a forecast decline in exports for 2022/23 that is partly offset by lower imports.
Exports are lowered 50 million bushels, based on reported U.S. Census Bureau shipments through the month of April, export inspection data for the month of May, and expectations of competition from Brazil in the coming months. With no supply or use changes for 2023/24, ending stocks are raised 35 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel.
WHEAT:
The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are raised as all wheat production is projected at 1,665 million bushels, up 6 million from last month on higher Hard Red Winter production more than offsetting reductions in Soft Red Winter and White Winter. The all wheat yield is 44.9 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushels from last month but remaining below last year. Total use is unchanged with all of the production increase added to ending stocks, now projected at 562 million bushels. The 2023/24 season-average farm price is lowered $0.30 per bushel to $7.70 on larger U.S. and foreign wheat supplies.
