Restaurant Performance Index declined 1.0% in March

The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) fell 1.0% in March, due largely to a deterioration in restaurant operators’ outlook for business conditions in the months ahead. The RPI – a monthly composite index that tracks the health of the U.S. restaurant industry – stood at 101.7 in March, down 1.0% from a level of 102.7 in February. 

A majority of restaurant operators reported positive same-store sales in March, but customer traffic readings were a mixed bag. The six-month outlook remains uncertain, as restaurant operators’ expectations for both sales and the economy softened during the April survey fielding period. 

The Current Situation Index, which measures current trends in four industry indicators, stood at 102.3 in March – down 0.7% from February. Although three in four operators reported positive same-store sales in March, softer readings for the customer traffic and labor indicators put downward pressure on the Current Situation Index. 

The Expectations Index, which measures restaurant operators’ six-month outlook for four industry indicators, stood at 101.0 – down 1.4% from the previous month and the lowest level in six months. The decline was largely the result of dampened expectations for both sales growth and the overall economy.                                

RPI Methodology

The National Restaurant Association's Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) is a monthly composite index that tracks the health of the U.S. restaurant industry. Launched in 2002, the RPI is released on the last business day of each month.

The RPI is measured in relation to a neutral level of 100. Index values above 100 indicate that key industry indicators are in a period of expansion, while index values below 100 represent a period of contraction for key industry indicators. The Index consists of two components — the Current Situation Index, which measures current trends in four industry indicators (same-store sales, traffic, labor and capital expenditures), and the Expectations Index, which measures restaurant operators’ six-month outlook for four industry indicators (same-store sales, employees, capital expenditures and business conditions).

The RPI is based on the responses to the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Industry Tracking Survey, which is fielded monthly among restaurant operators nationwide on a variety of indicators including sales, traffic, labor and capital expenditures.

Updated 4/28/2023