Expectations for larger crops places the forecast for 2023/24 U.S. feed grain production at 402 million metric tons, up from 358 million in 2022/23. Total supply of feed grains is projected at 443 million metric tons in 2023/24, which outpaces expected demand at 383 million metric tons. Forecast ending stocks for feed grains is projected at 59 million metric tons, up 21 million metric tons from the previous marketing year. Growth in the supply of feed grains is driven largely by corn. Corn supply in 2023/24 is forecast at 16,707 million bushels, up from 15,147 estimated in 2022/23. A larger corn crop and higher beginning stocks combine to bolster the corn supply.
Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is projected at a new record of 1,509.5 million tons on rebounding production in the United States combined with larger projected crops in Argentina, the European Union, and China. Due to record-high corn production prospects, U.S. corn exports in 2023/24 (October-September international trade year) are projected to represent 28 percent of the global trade share, up from 26 percent in 2022/23. Overall global coarse grain trade is forecast to be higher in the new marketing year—driven by increased export projections for the United States, Argentina, and Brazil. However, part of this projection is forecast to be offset by lowered projected exports from Ukraine and Australia. For 2022/23, Brazil corn production is increased 5 million tons.