April ‘World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’
LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
For 2023, the beef production forecast is raised from last month. Higher expected placements of cattle during the first half are reflected in higher forecast beef production during the second half. Pork production is raised in the first half on recent slaughter data and revisions to 2022 pig crop data but is lowered in the second half, as the December-February pig crop and producer farrowing intentions for March-May, published in the latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, were lower than previously expected. Broiler production is raised for the first half on recent slaughter and hatchery data. Turkey production is unchanged.
Export projections for beef are raised on recent trade data and expectations of sustained demand in a number of Asian markets. Imports are also raised on recent data and projections of increased supplies from Oceania. Pork exports and imports are both raised on recent data. Broiler and turkey exports are raised on recent data, and imports are reduced on recent discoveries of highly pathogenic avian flu outbreaks in Chile.
Cattle prices for the first quarter are lowered slightly on reported data but raised for all other quarters on continued strength in demand. Hog prices are lowered for all four quarters reflecting current price movements and continued modest demand. Broiler prices are projected higher on the strength of demand. Turkey prices are raised on current price movements.
This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for reductions to imports and food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use, with unchanged ending stocks. Corn imports are lowered 10 million bushels based on observed trade to date. Feed and residual use is unchanged at 5.275 billion based on indicated disappearance during the DecemberFebruary quarter. FSI is lowered 10 million bushels reflecting cuts to corn used for glucose and dextrose and starch. With supply and use falling by the same amount, ending stocks are unchanged at 1.342 billion bushels. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $6.60 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2022/23 is forecast 3.3 million tons lower to 1,436.3 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for declines in production, trade, and ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast down as cuts for Argentina, the EU, Serbia, and Uruguay are partially offset by an increase for Russia. For Argentina, production is lowered as continued heat during March diminishes yield prospects for late-planted corn, despite locally beneficial precipitation during the month. EU corn production is reduced, mostly reflecting declines for Hungary, Italy, and Bulgaria that are partly offset by increases for Germany and Poland. Russia corn production is higher reflecting increases to both area and yield. Foreign barley production is higher on an increase for the EU.
The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly higher supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and increased ending stocks. Supplies are raised 5 million bushels on higher imports, based on the pace of Census imports reported to date. Domestic use is lowered 25 million bushels on reduced feed and residual use, which is decreased to 55 million. The downward revision is based on the implied disappearance for the second and third quarters indicated in the NASS Grain Stocks report. Wheat exports remain at 775 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes for White and Hard Red Spring exports.
Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are raised 30 million bushels to 598 million but are still 14 percent below last year. The 2022/23 season-average farm price is forecast $0.10 per bushel lower at $8.90, based on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for cash prices for the remainder of 2022/23.