February ‘World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’
LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
Red meat, poultry, and egg supply and use estimates for 2022 are adjusted to reflect reported December production, ending stock, and trade data. For 2023, the beef production forecast is raised from last month. Slaughter is raised for the first quarter but is partly offset by lower carcass weights as cow slaughter is larger than previously forecast. For the second quarter, steer and heifer slaughter is lowered as fourth quarter 2022 placements were lower than expected, implying fewer animals available for marketing in the second quarter. Lower fed cattle slaughter, coupled with lower average carcass weights, more than offsets higher expected cow slaughter.
Pork production is lowered on slightly lighter first-half carcass weights. Broiler production is reduced for the first three quarters based on recent hatchery data and the current pace of slaughter. Turkey production is unchanged.
Beef imports for 2023 are raised for the year with a higher first-quarter forecast partially offset by lower second-quarter imports. The beef export forecast and the pork trade projections are unchanged. Broiler imports and turkey exports are both lowered.
For 2023, cattle prices are raised on expected strength in first-half demand for fed cattle in the face of tightening feedlot numbers. Hog prices are lowered for first-half 2023 reflecting current price movements. First-half broiler prices are projected lower on weaker-than expected prices thus far in 2023.
COARSE GRAINS:
This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower corn used for ethanol and larger ending stocks. Corn used for ethanol is reduced 25 million bushels, based on data through December from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of January. With no other use changes, U.S. corn ending stocks are up 25 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $6.70 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2022/23 is forecast 3.6 million tons lower to 1,442.8 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, consumption, and ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is down, with a decline for Argentina partially offset by increases for the Philippines and Vietnam. For Argentina, production is cut based on reductions to both area and yield. Foreign barley production is raised reflecting increases for Russia, Australia, and Uruguay.
Major global trade changes for 2022/23 include higher projected corn exports for Brazil, Ukraine, Paraguay, Turkey, and Indonesia, with a reduction for Argentina. For 2021/22, Argentina’s exports for the marketing year beginning in March 2022 are lowered based on observed shipments to date, while Brazil is raised. Corn imports for 2022/23 are increased for the EU, with partly offsetting reductions for Indonesia and Malaysia. Sorghum imports are lowered for China, reflecting export cuts for Argentina and the United States. Foreign corn ending stocks are down relative to last month, with declines for Ukraine and Indonesia that are partly offset by increases for Brazil and Canada. Global corn ending stocks, at 295.3 million tons, are down 1.1 million.
WHEAT:
The supply and demand outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat is largely unchanged this month with minor revisions to domestic use and ending stocks. Food use is lowered 2 million bushels to 975 million, which still is a record. The decrease is based on the NASS Flour Millings Products report, indicating a 2 percent reduction in wheat ground for flour for the October-December quarter compared to a year earlier. Seed use is raised 1 million bushels to 70 million, based primarily on NASS seed use data for the September-November quarter.
Wheat exports are unchanged at 775 million tons with offsetting by-class changes. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are raised 1 million bushels to 568 million. The 2022/23 seasonaverage farm price is forecast $0.10 per bushel lower at $9.00, based on prices received to date and expectations for cash prices for the remainder of 2022/23.
The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 is for increased supplies, consumption, trade, and stocks. Supplies are raised 2.4 million tons to 1,060.5 million, primarily on higher production for Australia and Russia. Australia production is raised 1.4 million tons to 38.0 million, which would be a third consecutive record. The majority of the increase is for Western Australia based on harvest receivals to date. Russia production is raised 1.0 million tons to 92.0 million on larger spring wheat harvested area.
Global consumption is increased 1.4 million tons to 791.2 million, mainly on higher feed and residual use by Canada, EU, and Russia more than offsetting lower food, seed, and industrial use by Bangladesh. World trade is raised 1.3 million tons to 212.9 million on higher exports by Australia, Ukraine, EU, and Russia more than offsetting reduced exports by Canada.
Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are raised 0.9 million tons to 269.3 million on increases for Australia and China more than offsetting a reduction for Ukraine. However, ending stocks still remain the lowest since 2016/17.
