January ‘World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’
LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
Red meat and poultry production for 2022 is lowered from last month as higher broiler and turkey production in the fourth quarter is more than offset by lower beef and pork. Changes reflect November production data and preliminary estimates of slaughter numbers and weights for December. Egg production is lowered slightly based on production and flock data.
For 2023, the beef forecast is raised with higher expected slaughter of steers and heifers, as well as cows and bulls. This increase is slightly offset by lower carcass weights. USDA’s Cattle report, which will be released January 31, will provide an indication of the number of cattle available for placement during 2023 as well as producer intentions for retaining heifers for addition to the breeding herd. Pork production is raised reflecting pig crop data for the second half of 2022 and producer intentions for sow farrowing in the first half of 2023. Broiler production is reduced for the first quarter based on recent hatchery data. Turkey production is raised for the first quarter based on hatchery data. Egg production is reduced on a slower expected pace of recovery.
Beef export estimates for 2022 are lowered and imports are unchanged on recent trade data. For 2023, beef imports are raised, largely on higher expected imports from Brazil, but the export forecast is unchanged. Pork imports for 2022 are lowered, but exports are unchanged. For 2023, pork imports are lowered, but exports are raised. Broiler exports in 2022 are raised on recent trade data, while 2023 exports are lowered. Turkey exports are lowered for both 2022 and 2023.
Price estimates for 2022 are adjusted to reflect December data. For 2023, cattle prices are raised on expected strength in demand for fed cattle. Hog prices are raised in the middle quarters of 2023 reflecting demand strength. Broiler prices are projected lower as weaker prices in late 2022 are expected to carry over into 2023. Turkey and egg prices for 2023 are raised on recent prices and expectations of continued firm demand and tight supplies.
COARSE GRAINS:
This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced production, food, seed, and industrial use (FSI), feed and residual use, exports, and ending stocks. Corn production is estimated at 13.730 billion bushels, down 200 million as an increase in yield is more than offset by a 1.6 million acre cut to harvested area. Total corn use is reduced 185 million bushels to 13.915 billion. Exports are reduced 150 million bushels to 1.925 billion, reflecting the slow pace of shipments through December, and the lowest level of outstanding sales as of early January since the 2019/20 marketing year. FSI use is lowered 10 million bushels, with reductions in corn used for starch and glucose and dextrose. Feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels to 5.275 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September-November quarter as reflected by the Grain Stocks report. With supply falling more than use, 2022/23 corn stocks are lowered 15 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $6.70 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2022/23 is forecast down 7.3 million tons to 1,446.4 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, greater trade, and reduced stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast down with declines for Argentina and Brazil partly offset by an increase for China. Production is reduced for Argentina reflecting declines to both area and yield, as heat and dryness during December and into early January reduce yield prospects for early-planted corn in key central growing areas. Brazil corn production for 2022/23 is cut reflecting dry conditions for first-crop corn in parts of southern Brazil. China corn production is higher based on the latest area and yield data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Barley production is raised for the United Kingdom but lowered for Ukraine.
WHEAT:
The 2022/23 U.S. outlook this month is for increased supplies, larger domestic use, unchanged exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are raised on higher beginning stocks as reported in today’s NASS Grain Stocks report. Feed and residual use is raised 30 million bushels to 80 million based on higher second-quarter implied disappearance based on the Grain Stocks report. Seed use is raised 3 million bushels to 69 million, reflecting larger than expected winter wheat plantings reported in today’s NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered slightly as larger domestic use more than offsets higher beginning stocks. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $9.10 per bushel.
The 2022/23 global outlook is for increased supplies, exports, consumption, and stocks. World supplies are raised 1.3 million tons to 1,058.1 million on production increases in Ukraine and the EU. World consumption for 2022/23 is raised by 0.2 million tons to 789.7 million as higher feed and residual use for the United States more than offsets a decline for Ukraine. Projected 2022/23 global trade is increased 0.8 million tons to 211.6 million as increases for the EU and Ukraine more than offset a decline for India. EU and Ukraine exports are raised 0.5 million tons each to 36.5 and 13.0 million respectively on higher exportable supplies. Projected 2022/23 global ending stocks are raised 1.1 million tons to 268.4 million, with increases for the EU, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and India more than offsetting declines in Saudi Arabia and Iran.
