December ‘World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’
LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
The forecast for 2022 red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher beef, broiler, and turkey forecasts for the fourth quarter are partly offset by lower pork. Beef production is raised with higher expected cattle slaughter as well as heavier carcass weights. Pork production is lowered on lighter carcass weights. Broiler and turkey production are raised on current slaughter and hatchery data.
For 2023, the beef forecast is unchanged, with offsetting first and second quarter changes. Broiler production is raised on more rapid expected growth in bird numbers later in the year. Turkey production is lowered for the first half of the year on recent discoveries of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza.
Beef imports for 2022 are unchanged, but exports are raised on recent data. Exports are raised for 2023 on expectations of continued momentum to East Asian markets. Pork imports and exports for 2022 are both lowered on recent data. Pork imports for 2023 are lowered slightly, while exports are unchanged. The broiler export forecast for 2022 is raised on recent trade data, while 2023 exports are lowered. Turkey exports are unchanged, but imports are raised for both years on current data and tightness in domestic supplies.
Price forecasts for cattle, hogs, and broilers are unchanged for 2022 and 2023. The turkey price forecast for 2022 is lowered on current price data, but the forecast for 2023 is unchanged. Egg price forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are raised on recent prices and expectations of continued firm demand and tight supplies.
COARSE GRAINS:
This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower exports and greater ending stocks. Exports are lowered 75 million bushels as competition from other exporters and relatively high U.S. prices have resulted in slow sales and shipments through early December. With no other use changes, corn ending stocks are raised 75 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $6.70 per bushel based on observed prices to date.
For 2022/23 sorghum, a substantial decline in demand from China supports greater domestic use expectations. Exports are lowered 20 million bushels, with offsetting increases to food, seed, and industrial and feed and residual use.
Global coarse grain production for 2022/23 is forecast down 5.9 million tons to 1,453.6 million. The 2022/23 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, greater trade, and smaller stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is reduced with forecast declines for Ukraine, Russia, the EU, and Vietnam. Ukraine corn production is sharply lower with reductions to both area and yield as the ongoing conflict and record-setting autumn rainfall have delayed the harvest in key producing oblasts of Poltava, Sumy, and Cherkasy. Russia corn production is lowered as harvest delays in the country reduce area expectations.
Corn exports are raised for Ukraine but lowered for the United States, Russia, and the EU. Barley exports are raised for Australia but lowered for Argentina. For 2021/22, sorghum exports for Argentina are lowered for the local marketing year beginning March 2022, based on shipments through the month of November. For 2022/23, corn imports are raised for the EU, but lowered for Canada, Iran, South Korea, Mexico, Vietnam, Philippines, and Turkey. Sorghum imports are reduced for China. Foreign corn ending stocks are down, reflecting reductions for Ukraine, Paraguay, Vietnam, and Mexico. Global corn stocks, at 298.4 million tons, are down 2.4 million.
WHEAT:
This month’s 2022/23 U.S. wheat supply and use outlook is unchanged from last month. There are offsetting changes for exports by-class with Hard Red Spring and White higher and Soft Red Winter lower. The 2022/23 season-average farm price is forecast $0.10 per bushel lower at $9.10, based on prices received to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of 2022/23.
The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 wheat is for reduced supplies, lower consumption, increased trade, and reduced stocks. Supplies are lowered 2.1 million tons to 1,056.9 million on reduced production for Argentina and Canada that is only partly offset by higher Australia production. Argentina is lowered 3.0 million tons to 12.5 million with reductions in both area harvested and yield on continued widespread dry conditions. This would be the lowest production since 2015/16. Canada’s production is reduced 1.2 million tons to 33.8 million, based on the latest Statistics Canada estimate and is the third largest crop on record.
