CME cattle futures have collapsed today, most active February slicing through moving averages and trading just below its 100-day moving average. February has taken out the last swing low and is the lowest since November 16. Technical indicators are pointing lower and the important November low of $152.27 appears to have a target on its back. In hindsight, February has a double top around $157, made in October and November—certainly not too high when compared to last week’s average cash fed cattle price of $156.42.

But futures are not interested in anticipating the tight fed cattle supply forecasted for 2023 and 2024, instead focusing on the big seasonal drop in boxed beef values this week. The holiday rib has topped, right on schedule, and other items such as the chuck and round continue to make new lows for 2022. Yesterday afternoon, choice boxed beef values printed at $243.31, taking out the October low and making a new low for 2022. Typically beef prices bottom around Christmas before staging a modest January rally.

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'The Beef' is published by Consolidated Beef Producers