The U.S. leading economic index fell 0.8% in October, the Conference Board said Friday.
Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected a 0.4% fall.
This is the eighth straight decline in the leading index.
The long period of declines suggests “the economy is possibly in a recession,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at the Conference Board. He said the data show a recession is likely to start around the end of the year and last through mid-2023.
The coincident index, which measures current conditions, rose 0.2% in October after a 0.1% gain in the prior month. The lagging index increased by 0.1%, matching the September gain.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a weighted gauge of 10 indicators designed to signal business-cycle peaks and valleys.