November fed cattle slaughter pace is setting up for a big decline compared to recent months. The average since November 1st through November 12th has been 84,715 head per day. Last year in early November the daily average was 88,245 and by the end of the month was 84,078 head per day due to the drop during the holiday week.
The average for steers is calculating to 48,909 head per day, off more than 3,000 head per day from last year’s November 1-12 total and represents a 7% decline. Heifers are similar to last year: 35,806 in 2022 vs. 35,675 in 2021. This is less than half a percent increase from a year ago. Total combined steer and heifer slaughter is down 4% in the first half of November.
Estimated slaughter tallies for show combined steer and heifer kill to be just over 1 million head for the period of November 13-28, about 7% higher than last year on the same number of slaughter day. The large increase is expected to skew towards more heifers in the system, as daily fed slaughter has been averaging 41% heifers relative to steers.
Cow kill appears to be slowing as well. Daily estimates for total cows shows the average daily slaughter to be down 1% from last year’s November 1-12, while bull slaughter is up 5.7%. Estimated slaughter for the next two weeks, implies cow slaughter will pick up, and is expected to be about 6% above a year ago. Bull slaughter is expected to be much higher and may even see double digit increases if the ratio of 92% to 8% cows to bulls holds for the next few weeks.
Ultimately, based on estimated daily totals so far this month and actual data, November may post declines compared to a year ago for steers, heifers, and cows. There are still two more tallies for estimated slaughter to come this week, and they are full nonholiday work days which may do some catch up.
Daily Livestock Report - Steiner Consulting Group