USDA Economic Research Service

Total U.S. feed grain production in 2022 is forecast up 660,000 metric tons in the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, as a marginally higher corn yield revision more than offsets reductions to sorghum. U.S. corn production is raised 35 million bushels this month, on a 0.4 bushel per acre yield increase to 172.3 bushels, while harvested area remains unchanged. Corn production is forecast to total 13,930 million bushels in 2022/23. U.S. sorghum production is revised down 9 million bushels in November, on a 1.6 bushel per acre yield reduction. U.S. producers are forecast to harvest 236 million bushels of sorghum in 2022, the lowest level since 2011/12.

In November, new crop corn usage increased by 25 million bushels, as higher supplies boosted feed and residual use. New crop sorghum use fell 10 million bushels this month, as reduced production further pressured exportable supplies. Corn ending stocks are up 10 million bushels from October at 1,182 million bushels and sorghum ending stocks increased 1 million bushels from last month to 24 million bushels.

Global 2022/23 coarse grain production is projected at 1,459.5 million tons, down 0.3 million tons from last month and 43.8 million tons from last year. The major decline is led by reduced coarse grain prospects of 1.1 million tons in the European Union, followed by South Africa and Argentina, each with reductions of 0.6 million tons. U.S. sorghum exports for 2022/23 are projected lower this month.

U.S. Corn Production Is Up Slightly on Yield Adjustment

The USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) projects U.S. corn production in 2022/23 to be 13,930 million bushels, up 35 million bushels from the previous forecast, though 1,144 million bushels lower than last year and 3 percent less than the 5-year average.  Harvested area in 2022 is forecast at 80.8 million acres, down 5 percent from the year prior and 2 percent under the 5-year average.

The U.S. corn yield for 2022/23 is projected at 172.3 bushels per acre, based on NASS’s November forecast. This month’s projection is up 0.4 bushels from October but still represents a 4.4 bushel decline from 2021/22. While widespread summer drought pressured yield potential in many States across the western corn belt, upward yield revisions in November in key Midwestern States helped moved the needle on the national average.

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