LIVESTOCK & POULTRY: The forecast for 2022 red meat and poultry production is fractionally higher than last month, as higher beef, pork, and broiler forecasts are partly offset by a lower turkey forecast. Beef production is raised for the second half of the year with higher expected slaughter for the period offset slightly by lower expected third quarter carcass weights. Pork production for the third quarter is raised on a higher-than expected slaughter pace albeit at slightly lower carcass weights. Broiler production is raised slightly on current slaughter data and higher eggs set and chicks placed. Turkey production is forecast lower based on slaughter to date and hatchery data. Egg production is raised slightly from last month. For 2023, the red meat and poultry production forecast is raised on higher beef and broiler production. The beef forecast was raised, reflecting higher expected placements in late 2022 which will be marketed in the first half of 2023.
The beef import forecast for 2022 is lowered on July trade data and expectations of slower imports, largely from Oceania during the remainder of the year; the export forecast is unchanged. Beef import and export forecasts for 2023 are unchanged. Pork imports and exports are both lowered for 2022 on recent data. For 2023, pork imports are lowered but the export forecast is unchanged. The broiler export forecast for 2022 is lowered on recent data and expectations of slowing demand in price sensitive markets; the forecast for 2023 is unchanged. Turkey exports are unchanged for 2022 and 2023.
Cattle price forecasts for 2022 are raised on current strength in demand, but forecasts for 2023 are unchanged. The 2022 hog price forecast is lowered on observed prices but is unchanged for 2023. The broiler price forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are lowered on higher forecast production. Turkey price forecasts for 2022 are unchanged, while 2023 prices are raised as a result of the lowered early-year production forecasts. The 2022 egg price forecast is raised as second half prices are expected to be supported by firm demand; as demand strength is expected to continue in early 2023, the first quarter price forecast is also raised.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, smaller feed and residual use, reduced exports and corn used for ethanol, and tighter ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2022/23 are 5 million bushels lower based on essentially offsetting export and corn used for ethanol changes for 2021/22. Corn production for 2022/23 is forecast at 13.9 billion bushels, down 415 million from last month on reductions to harvested area and yield. The national average yield is forecast at 172.5 bushels per acre, down 2.9 bushels. Harvested area for grain is forecast at 80.8 million acres, down 1.0 million. Total U.S. corn use is cut 250 million bushels to 14.3 billion. Feed and residual use is lowered 100 million bushels based on a smaller crop and higher expected prices. Exports are cut 100 million bushels to 2.3 billion while corn used for ethanol is lowered 50 million to 5.3 billion. With supply falling more than use, ending stocks are down 169 million bushels to 1.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 10 cents to $6.75 per bushel.
This month’s 2022/23 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, higher trade, and increased stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, Ukraine, Canada, and Mozambique more than offsetting reductions for the EU and Serbia. China corn production is raised as abundant rainfall in key Northeast provinces and the North China Plain boost yield prospects. Ukraine corn production is raised with an increase in yield expectations while Canada is higher based on greater indicated area. EU corn production is lowered based on reductions for France, Romania, and Germany. Foreign barley production is higher with larger production in Russia and Australia more than offsetting a decline for Syria.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2022/23 include larger corn exports for Ukraine but a reduction for the United States. Corn imports are lowered for Canada and Vietnam. Foreign corn ending stocks are raised 2.2 million tons to 273.6 million, mostly reflecting increases for China and India that are partially offset by declines for Ukraine, the EU, and Thailand. World corn ending stocks at 304.5 million tons, are down 2.2 million.
WHEAT: The 2022/23 U.S. wheat outlook for supply and use is unchanged this month. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price (SAFP) is lowered $0.25 per bushel to $9.00 on reported NASS prices to date and expectations for cash and futures prices the remainder of 2022/23. Despite the decline, $9.00 per bushel would remain a record SAFP.
The 2022/23 global wheat outlook raises supplies, consumption, exports, and ending stocks this month. Supplies increase by 3.6 million tons to 1,059.6 million, as production increases for Russia and Ukraine more than offset a decline in beginning stocks. Production in Russia is forecast 3.0 million tons higher, to 91.0 million, on harvest results for winter wheat to date published by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture. If realized, area harvested, yield, and production for Russia will all reach record highs. The Ukraine production forecast is increased 1.0 million tons to 20.5 million as the harvest is nearly complete and government statistics reported higher yields in the Forest and Forest-Steppe zones.
Larger supplies boost global consumption by 2.4 million tons to 791.0 million, almost entirely on increased feed and residual use as food, seed, and industrial use is nearly unchanged. Feed and residual use in Russia is forecast 1.0 million tons higher to 21.0 million on additional supplies. EU feed and residual use is increased 1.0 million tons to 44.0 million as wheat prices are now more competitive with feed grains, spurring demand. Global trade is nearly unchanged, rising 0.2 million tons to 208.9 million as there were no changes for any of the major exporters. World ending stocks increase 1.2 million tons to 268.6 million as stock increases in Russian and Ukraine more than offset a decline in the EU.