LIVESTOCK & POULTRY: The forecast for 2022 red meat and poultry production is fractionally higher than last month as higher beef and broiler forecasts are partly offset by lower pork and turkey. Beef production is raised for the second half with higher expected slaughter.
Pork production is lowered on lower third quarter slaughter. Broiler production is raised on recent production data and higher expected production in the fourth quarter. Turkey production is forecast lower based on slaughter to date and hatchery data.
For 2023, the red meat and poultry production forecast is raised on higher beef production. The beef forecast was raised, reflecting higher expected placements in late 2022 and the 2022 calf crop reported in the latest Cattle report. Turkey production is lowered slightly, while the pork and broiler production forecasts are unchanged from last month.
The beef import forecast for 2022 is lowered on second quarter data and expectations of slower imports, largely from Oceania. Imports for 2023 are unchanged from last month. Exports are raised for both years on larger beef supplies and continued firm demand from Asian markets. Pork imports and exports are adjusted for 2022 on recent data; the forecasts for the remainder of 2022 and 2023 are unchanged. Broiler exports for 2022 and 2023 are lowered on recent data and expectations of slower demand in price sensitive markets. Turkey exports are raised on the latest trade data, but no change is made to the forecast for the outlying quarters of 2022. The forecast for 2023 is raised on expectations of improving demand.
Cattle price forecasts for 2022 are raised on current price strength. This is expected to carry into early 2023 and prices were raised for the first quarter. The 2022 hog price forecast is raised on expectations of higher second-half prices, but no changes are made to 2023. The broiler price forecast for 2022 is lowered as prices decline from their highs earlier in the year. This decline is carried into the first half of 2023. Turkey price forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are raised on current prices and expectations of firming demand. The third-quarter 2022 egg price forecast is raised as egg prices peaked at record levels in July before beginning to decline. Forecasts for the fourth quarter and 2023 are unchanged.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, reduced feed and residual use, slightly higher food, seed, and industrial use, smaller exports, and lower ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2022/23 are 20 million bushels higher based on a lower use forecast for 2021/22, where a reduction in corn used for ethanol is partially offset by greater use for glucose and dextrose. Corn production for 2022/23 is forecast at 14.4 billion bushels, down 146 million from the July projection. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 175.4 bushels per acre, is 1.6 bushels below last month’s projection. Among the major producing states, today’s Crop Production report indicates that yields are forecast above a year ago in Illinois, Minnesota, and South Dakota. Yields in Indiana, Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio are forecast below a year ago. Iowa is unchanged.
Total U.S. corn use for 2022/23 is reduced 45 million bushels to 14.5 billion. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels based on a smaller crop. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is projected higher based on observed use during 2021/22. Exports for 2022/23 are cut 25 million bushels to 2.4 billion. With supply falling more than use, ending stocks are lowered 82 million bushels to 1.4 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $6.65 per bushel.
This month’s 2022/23 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, larger trade, and smaller ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is down, with reductions for the EU and Serbia partially offset by increases for Ukraine, Malawi, Russia, and Turkey. EU corn production is sharply lower as extreme heat and dryness cut crop prospects for Romania, Hungary, France, Italy, Spain, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Germany. Serbia is also reduced based on lower yield prospects. Corn production for Ukraine is higher as moderate to heavy late-July rainfall boost yield expectations. Foreign barley production for 2022/23 is higher with increases for Ukraine, Australia, Russia, Turkey, and Canada that are partly offset by a reduction for the EU.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2022/23 include forecast corn export increases for Ukraine, Serbia, Zambia, and Russia. Exports are lowered for the EU and the United States. Corn imports are raised for the EU but reduced for Vietnam. Sorghum exports are reduced for the United States, while imports are lowered for China. Barley exports are raised for Australia but lowered for the EU. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2022/23 are down 4.2 million tons to 271.4 million.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for increased supplies, higher domestic use and exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are raised on higher production with all wheat production forecast at 1,783 million bushels, up 2 million from last month. Reductions in winter wheat and Durum are more than offset by an increase in Other Spring Wheat. The all wheat yield is 47.5 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushels from last month. Food use is raised 6 million bushels to 970 million, based primarily on the NASS Flour Milling Products report, issued August 1. The report indicated record wheat flour millings in the April-June quarter, which resulted in raising 2021/22 food use to a record 972 million bushels. Wheat exports for 2022/23 are increased 25 million bushels to 825 million with most of the upward adjustment for Soft Red Winter and White, based on competitive export prices. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered 29 million bushels to 610 million. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price (SAFP) is reduced $1.25 per bushel to $9.25. This is based on prices received for marketings to date, which are lower than previously expected. However, the SAFP is still projected at a record, surpassing $7.77 per bushel in 2012/13.
The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 is for higher supplies, greater consumption, increased trade, and fractionally lower stocks. Supplies are raised by 4.2 million tons to 1,055.9 million as higher production more than offsets reduced beginning stocks. Production is increased to a record 779.6 million tons, primarily on higher production for Russia, Australia, and China. Russia’s production is raised 6.5 million tons to a record 88.0 million on both higher harvested area and yield. Harvested area increased for both winter and spring wheat on updated area data from Rosstat, Russia’s statistical agency. Winter wheat yields are raised on harvest results while spring wheat yields increased on generally favorable conditions to date. Australia’s production is raised 3.0 million tons to 33.0 million as increasingly favorable weather conditions indicate higher yield prospects. China’s production is increased 3.0 million tons to 138.0 million tons on the National Bureau of Statistics summer grain report, primarily on higher harvested area. Partially offsetting these increases are reductions for India and the EU. India’s production is lowered 3.0 million tons to 103.0 million, primarily on reduced harvested area. EU production is reduced 2.0 million tons to 132.1 million, mostly on reductions for Hungary, Spain, and Romania. Projected 2022/23 world consumption is raised 4.4 million tons to 788.6 million, led by higher feed and residual use for Russia and Australia.
Projected 2022/23 global trade is raised 3.2 million tons to 208.6 million on higher exports by Russia, Australia, Ukraine, Canada, and the United States more than offsetting lower exports from the EU and Argentina. Russia’s exports are raised to a record 42.0 million tons on greater exportable supplies and expectations that export prices will remain competitive. Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are reduced fractionally to 267.3 million tons and remain at the lowest level in six years.
