LIVESTOCK & POULTRY: The total U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast for 2022 is raised from last month as higher beef and pork production more than offset lower poultry production. Beef production is raised with higher expected steer and heifer and cow slaughter more than offsetting lower expected carcass weights. Pork production is raised for the second quarter on the current pace of slaughter, although carcass weights are reduced slightly; no changes are made to the outlying quarters.
The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, to be released on June 29, will provide indications of supplies of hogs for slaughter in the outlying quarters as well as into early 2023. Broiler production is reduced on the pace of slaughter and recent hatchery data. Turkey production is reduced on the current pace of slaughter. The production forecasts for 2023 for beef, pork, broiler meat, and turkey meat are unchanged from last month. For 2022, beef exports are raised reflecting stronger sales to several markets in Asia and the strength of demand is expected to carry into early 2023. Stronger demand in several key markets support higher pork, broiler meat, and turkey meat exports forecasts for 2022; the 2023 forecasts are unchanged. For 2022, the import projection for beef is lowered, while pork imports are raised reflecting recent trade data.
The 2022 cattle price forecast is unchanged from last month. Hog, broiler, and egg prices for the second quarter are lowered from last month on observed prices; no change is made to price forecasts for the outlying quarters. Second-quarter turkey prices are raised on prices to date, but no change is made to the price forecasts for the outlying quarters. No changes are made to the price forecasts for 2023.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for larger beginning stocks, slightly higher use, and increased ending stocks. Corn area and yield forecasts are unchanged. USDA will release its Acreage report on June 30, which will provide survey based indications of planted and harvested area. Beginning stocks are up 45 million bushels mostly reflecting a forecast decline in exports for 2021/22. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels, based on reported U.S. Census Bureau shipments through the month of April and export inspection data for the month of May. Food, seed, and industrial use (FSI) is raised 5 million bushels as projected increases in the amount of corn used for glucose and dextrose and starch is partially offset by a decline in high fructose corn syrup. These FSI use changes are carried through for 2022/23. With no other 2022/23 use changes, ending stocks are raised 40 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $6.75 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2022/23 is forecast 3.3 million tons higher to 1,479.2 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, lower trade, and higher ending stocks relative to last month. Corn production is raised for Ukraine, reflecting higher area based on data reported by the government. Barley production is lowered for the EU, mostly on forecast declines for Spain and France that are partially offset by an increase for Germany. Barley production for Australia and Ukraine is reduced based on declines in area.
Major global trade changes for 2022/23 include larger corn imports for the EU, but reductions for Morocco, Jordan, and Peru. Barley exports are lowered for Australia, the EU, and Ukraine. Foreign corn ending stocks are raised relative to last month, mostly on increases for Ukraine and Russia. Global corn ending stocks, at 310.5 million tons, are up 5.3 million from last month.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for increased supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are raised on higher production with all wheat production projected at 1,737 million bushels, up 8 million from last month. NASS raised winter wheat production to 1,182 million bushels as increases for Soft Red Winter and White Winter more than offset a reduction for Hard Red Winter. The all wheat yield is 46.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from last month. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are raised 8 million bushels to 627 million, still down 4 percent from 2021/22.
The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price is unchanged at $10.75 per bushel, compared to $7.70 for 2021/22. The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 is for lower supplies, reduced consumption, fractionally lower trade, and slightly lower ending stocks. Supplies are decreased by 1.7 million tons to 1,052.8 million as lower India production more than offsets an increase for Russia. India’s production is lowered 2.5 million tons to 106.0 million as extreme temperatures in March and April reduced yields during grain fill. Russia’s production is raised 1.0 million tons to 81.0 million with all of the increase in winter wheat on generally favorable weather conditions to date. Projected 2022/23 world consumption is reduced 1.5 million tons to 786.0 million mainly on lower feed and residual use for India and less food, seed, and industrial use for Sri Lanka and Argentina.
Projected 2022/23 global trade is decreased 0.3 million tons to 204.6 million as lower exports from India are not completely offset by higher exports from Russia and Uzbekistan. India’s exports are reduced 2.0 million tons to 6.5 million as the government intends to restrict exports to some destinations to ensure sufficient domestic supplies. Russia’s exports are raised 1.0 million tons to 40.0 million, which would be the second largest on record. Russia’s supplies are projected higher for 2022/23 and its export prices are more competitive than most other exporters. Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are lowered 0.2 million tons to 266.9 million, a six-year low.