LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
The 2022 forecast for total red meat and poultry production is lowered slightly from last month, as higher forecast beef and turkey production is more than offset by lower projections for pork and broilers. The beef production forecast is raised from the previous month on higher fed and non-fed cattle slaughter. Pork production is lowered on a slower pace of slaughter and slightly lighter carcass weights. Broiler production is lowered on lower slaughter to date and a slower-than-previously-expected recovery in hatchability. Turkey production forecasts are raised on early-year hatchery data. The egg production forecast is reduced on slower expected growth in first-half production.
Supply and use estimates for 2021 are adjusted for revisions in production and stock data. Beef import and export forecasts are raised from last month based on recent trade data. Pork imports are raised on strong domestic prices, while exports are reduced on increased competition in a number of Asian markets. The broiler export forecast is reduced as higher prices reduce export opportunities. The turkey export forecast is reduced from last month primarily as recent discoveries of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza have resulted in import restrictions by Mexico.
Fed-cattle prices are raised on firm packer demand and declining inventories of fed cattle. Hog prices are raised on observed prices to date and expected strength in demand. Broiler, turkey, and egg price forecasts are raised on current prices and relatively slow production growth.
This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn supply and use outlook is for increased food, seed, and industrial use, larger exports, and smaller stocks relative to last month. Corn used for ethanol is raised 25 million bushels to 5.350 billion, based on data through January WASDE-622-2 from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of February. Exports are raised 75 million bushels to 2.500 billion, reflecting expectations of sharply lower exports from Ukraine.
The projected season-average farm price is raised 20 cents to $5.65 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2021/22 is forecast 1.5 million tons higher to 1,498.9 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, lower trade, and greater ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast modestly higher with increases for India and Russia that are partly offset by declines for Argentina and South Africa. India corn production is higher with increases to both area and yield. Argentina corn production is lowered as higher indicated area is more than offset by a reduction in yield. South Africa corn production is down reflecting lower yield prospects. Corn exports are raised for the United States and India but reduced for Ukraine. Imports are lowered for Egypt, Algeria, Turkey, Israel, India, and Bangladesh. Barley exports are raised for Australia and Canada but reduced for Ukraine. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting increases for Ukraine, India, and Russia that are partly offset by reductions for Argentina, South Africa, and Bangladesh. Global corn ending stocks, at 301.0 million tons, are down 1.3 million from last month.
The 2021/22 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook is for lower supplies, unchanged domestic use, reduced exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are lower because imports are reduced 5 million bushels, all for Hard Red Spring wheat, on a slower-than-expected pace.
Exports are reduced 10 million bushels, down to 800 million, on weaker than expected sales and shipments for Hard Red Winter and Soft Red Winter. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are raised 5 million bushels to 653 million but are still 23 percent lower than last year. The season-average farm price (SAFP) is raised $0.20 per bushel to $7.50 on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for cash and futures prices the remainder of the marketing year (MY). Despite the recent sharp increases in futures and cash prices, a significant majority of U.S. wheat has already been marketed this MY, limiting the SAFP increase.
The 2021/22 global outlook this month is for higher production, decreased trade and consumption, and larger ending stocks. Global output is raised mainly on an increase for Australia, where an updated ABARES estimate raised production 2.3 million tons to a record 36.3 million. World exports are lowered by 3.6 million tons to 203.1 million, as decreases for Ukraine and Russia are only partly offset by increases for Australia and India. Exports are lowered for Ukraine by 4.0 million tons to 20.0 million, as the conflict in that country is expected to disrupt exports from the Black Sea region. Russia exports are reduced 3.0 million tons to 32.0 million as vessel transportation is expected to be constrained by the conflict and the imposition of economic sanctions.
Partly offsetting these reductions are increases for 2021/22 Australian and Indian exports, up 2.0 and 1.5 million tons respectively to 27.5 and 8.5 million. Increased production and competitive prices are expected to boost exports in Australia to a record level. India’s robust export pace is expected to continue because of its ample stocks and rising global prices. Imports are lowered for many countries including Turkey, Egypt, the EU, Afghanistan, Algeria, Kenya, Pakistan, Tanzania, and Yemen based on reduced Black Sea wheat export availability and higher world prices. The 2021/22 global use forecast is lowered 0.8 million tons to 787.3 million, on slight decreases in many countries, including India, that more than offset increased feed and residual forecasts for Australia and Ukraine. Global ending stocks are raised 3.3 million tons to 281.5 million, as increased stocks in Russia and Ukraine are only partly offset by declines in Turkey, India, and the EU.