LIVESTOCK, POULTRY: The 2021 total red meat and poultry production estimate is raised from last month. The beef production estimate is raised on higher non-fed cattle slaughter and heavier average carcass weights. Pork production is reduced on the slower pace of slaughter in late 2021. Broiler production is raised on recent slaughter data while turkey production is unchanged from the previous month.
For 2022, the total red meat and poultry forecast is raised from the previous month as higher expected beef and broiler production more than offsets lower pork production. Higher expected placements in late 2021 and first-half 2022 will support greater fed cattle supplies during much of 2022. Slightly heavier carcass weights and greater non-fed cattle slaughter in the first half of the year also supports increased beef production. USDA will release its semi-annual Cattle report on January 31, providing estimates of heifers held for breeding and an insight into the number of feeder cattle available for placement during 2022. The pork production forecast for 2022 is reduced from the previous month as slower expected hog slaughter in the second half of the year more than offsets higher slaughter expectations in the first and second quarters. In the December Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, producers indicated intentions to farrow fractionally fewer sows in the first half of 2022 than in 2021; hogs from this pig crop will likely be slaughtered during the second half of 2022. First quarter broiler production is raised on hatchery data; no change is made to the outlying quarters. No change is made to turkey and egg production forecasts.
For 2021, the beef import estimate is raised on recent trade data while beef exports remain unchanged. The pork export estimate is lowered on recent trade data. Poultry export estimates are lowered from last month, reflecting U.S. Census Bureau revisions to second quarter data; no change is made to export estimates for the outlying quarters. For 2022, beef import and export forecasts are unchanged. The pork export forecast is lowered on continued weak import demand from China and expectations of increased competition from competing exporters in a number of other markets. Broiler export forecasts are reduced on slower expected global demand.
Livestock and poultry price estimates for 2021 are adjusted to reflect December price data. For 2022, cattle, broiler, turkey, and egg price forecasts are raised on current prices and expectations of continued firm demand. The 2022 annual hog price forecast is unchanged with offsetting changes in first and second-quarter prices.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for higher production, greater food, seed, and industrial use (FSI), lower exports, and larger ending stocks. Corn production is estimated at 15.115 billion bushels, up 53 million on a 0.3-million acre increase in harvested area. Total corn use is virtually unchanged at 14.835 billion. Exports are lowered 75 million bushels to 2.425 billion, reflecting expectations of increased competition from other exporters. FSI use is raised 80 million bushels. Corn used for ethanol is raised 75 million bushels to 5.325 billion, based on data through November from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of December. The projected amount of corn used for glucose and dextrose is raised 5 million bushels. Feed and residual use is unchanged at 5.650 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September/November quarter as reflected by the Grain Stocks report. With use essentially unchanged and supply rising, corn stocks are raised 47 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5.45 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2021/22 is forecast 1.6 million tons lower to 1,500.1 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, consumption, and stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast lower with declines for Brazil, Argentina, Kenya, Mexico, the EU, and Paraguay that are partially offset by an increase for Ukraine. For Argentina, dryness during December reduces yield prospects for early-planted corn in key central growing areas, although with an increase in late-planted corn area for much of the crop the critical phase of the growing season lies in the months ahead. Brazil is lowered reflecting reduced yield expectations for first-crop corn in southern Brazil. Other major coarse grain production changes include updated barley, sorghum, and millet production for China based on the latest information from the Rural Statistical Yearbook.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2021/22 include greater corn exports for Ukraine, Pakistan, and Tanzania with a reduction for Paraguay. For 2020/21, Argentina and Brazil’s exports for the marketing year beginning in March 2021 are raised based on observed shipments to date. For 2021/22, corn imports are raised for Kenya, Brazil, Canada, and Mexico, but lowered for Bangladesh. Barley imports are raised for Iran but lowered for Saudi Arabia. Foreign corn ending stocks are lower, mostly reflecting reductions for Brazil, Argentina, and Pakistan. Global corn stocks, at 303.1 million tons, are down 2.5 million.
