LIVESTOCK & POULTRY: Total red meat and poultry production for 2021 is reduced from last month as lower broiler and turkey production more than offsets higher beef and pork production. The beef production forecast is raised on higher fed cattle slaughter and heavier carcass weights. Pork production is increased on the current pace of hog slaughter. Broiler production is reduced on recent hatchery and slaughter data while the turkey production forecast is lowered on recent slaughter data. Egg production is forecast lower on recent production data.
For 2022, total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month. Beef production is unchanged from the previous month while pork production is raised on heavier carcass weights. Broiler production is raised as higher prices are expected to support expanding production. Turkey production is lowered from last month.
Beef import forecasts are raised for 2021 and 2022 but no change is made to the export forecasts. The 2021 pork export forecast is reduced from last month largely on weaker import demand from China. Broiler exports are unchanged for 2021, but forecasts are raised for 2022 on stronger expected demand. Turkey exports for both 2021 and 2022 are lowered modestly on recent trade data.
The cattle price forecasts for 2021 and 2022 are raised on current price strength and expectations of continued demand strength into next year. The fourth-quarter hog price is reduced on recent prices, but no change is made to 2022 hog prices. The 2021 and 2022 broiler price forecasts are raised from last month on current prices and expectations that demand will remain firm. The 2021 turkey price is reduced on recent prices, but 2022 prices are raised on tighter expected supplies.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn supply and use outlook is unchanged from last month. The projected season-average farm price remains at $5.45 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2021/22 is forecast 2.7 million tons higher to 1,501.7 million. The foreign coarse grain outlook is for greater production, increased trade, and larger ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher as increases for the EU and Ukraine more than offset a reduction for China. EU corn production is raised reflecting increases for France, Romania, and Poland. Ukraine corn production is higher based on harvest results to date. China corn production is reduced reflecting the latest information published by the National Bureau of Statistics which indicated higher area that was more than offset by a reduction in yield. Barley production is raised for Australia but lowered for the EU and Iran. Sorghum production is increased for Australia.
Corn exports are raised for Ukraine and the EU. Imports are raised for Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom, but lowered for Israel. For 2020/21, corn exports for Brazil are raised for the local marketing year beginning March 2021, based on higher-than expected shipments through the month of November. Sorghum exports for 2021/22 are raised for Australia, with higher imports projected for China. Foreign corn ending stocks are raised, mostly reflecting increases for Ukraine, the EU, Mexico, and Iran that are partly offset by a reduction for China.