LIVESTOCK & POULTRY: The forecast for 2021 total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month. Beef production is raised from the previous month on higher expected slaughter of fed cattle and heavier carcass weights. The pork production forecast is raised slightly as heavier carcass weights more than offset lower expected slaughter in the fourth quarter. The broiler production forecast is raised on recent hatchery and slaughter data. Turkey production is raised on September production data; no change is made to the fourth quarter production forecast. The egg production forecast is raised on recent production data and higher expected table egg production in the fourth quarter.
For 2022, the total red meat and poultry forecast is raised slightly from last month. Beef and turkey production forecasts are raised, while the pork and broiler production forecasts are unchanged from last month. The egg production forecast is raised from last month.
The 2021 and 2022 beef import forecasts are raised from last month on robust domestic demand for beef. The 2021 beef export forecast is raised on recent trade data and continued strong demand from top trading partners. No change is made to the 2022 beef export forecast. Pork exports are reduced on September trade data; no change is made to the forecasts for outlying periods. Broiler export forecasts for 2021 and 2022 are raised on stronger expected demand. The 2021 and 2022 turkey export forecasts are raised modestly from last month.
Cattle price forecasts for 2021 and 2022 are raised on continued firm demand. The hog price forecast is reduced for fourth-quarter 2021 on recent price weakness. This weakness is expected to carry into first-quarter 2022, and the annual price forecast is lowered. The 2021 and 2022 broiler and turkey price forecasts are raised from the previous month on current prices and expected strength in demand.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for greater production, increased corn used for ethanol, and marginally lower ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.062 billion bushels, up 43 million from last month on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to a record 177.0 bushels per acre. Corn used for ethanol is raised 50 million bushels, based on September data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of October. With use rising slightly more than supply, corn ending stocks are lowered 7 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5.45 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2021/22 is forecast 5.1 million tons higher to 1,499.0 million. This month’s 2021/22 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, increased trade, and higher stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher as increases for Argentina, the EU, and several African countries more than offset a decline for the Philippines. For Argentina, production is raised mostly reflecting increased area expectations for late-planted corn. Corn production in the EU is higher based on increases for Poland, Romania, and France. Foreign barley production is lowered based on declines for Turkey, the EU, Russia, and Ukraine.
Corn exports are raised for Argentina and the EU but lowered for Bangladesh. Corn imports are raised for Iran and Thailand but lowered for Nigeria and Turkey. For 2020/21, corn exports for Argentina are raised but reduced for Brazil for the local marketing year beginning March 2021, based on shipments observed through October. For 2021/22, barley imports are raised for China and Turkey but reduced for Saudi Arabia. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher relative to last month, reflecting increases for China, Brazil, Burkina Faso, and Angola. Global corn ending stocks, at 304.4 million tons, are up 2.7 million.
