The Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) forecasts beef, pork, and poultry production through 2023. This DLR will discuss general trends in meat per capita consumption and provide some outlook discussion for 2022 and 2023. Per capita meat consumption is a measure of meat disappearance which is calculated as by dividing the total meat supply (supply minus net exports and ending stocks) by population.

Beef per capita consumption is expected to trend lower over the next few years. In 2021, beef per capita consumption is expected to be about 57.9 pounds (retail weight), just below the recent high of 58.4 pounds in 2020. Monday’s DLR discussed the recent USDA NASS Cattle on Feed report which noted that 11.6 million head of cattle were on feed as of October 1 which will support beef production and consumption through this year.

Moving into 2022 feedlot numbers are expected to trend generally lower leading towards tighter beef supplies which will support beef prices. Beef per capita consumption is forecast to slip to 56 pounds in 2022, and it is expected to moderate one more pound lower to 55 pounds in 2023.

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