LIVESTOCK, POULTRY: The forecast for 2021 total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month. Beef production is reduced from the previous month as lower expected steer and heifer slaughter and lighter carcass weights more than offset higher cow slaughter. The pork production forecast is reduced on lower expected second-half hog slaughter. The broiler production forecast is raised on recent hatchery and slaughter data while the turkey production forecast is reduced. The egg production forecast is raised slightly. For 2022, the total red meat and poultry forecast is reduced from the previous month. The beef production forecast is reduced from last month on lower expected fed cattle slaughter and lighter carcass weights. Pork production is unchanged. Broiler and turkey production forecasts are raised on higher expected prices and lower expected feed costs. The 2022 egg production forecast is reduced.
For 2021, the beef import forecast is raised reflecting recent trade data; the export forecast is also raised on strong global demand from key trading partners; no changes are made to the 2022 forecasts. The pork export forecast for 2021 is reduced on recent trade data and expected slower demand growth from Asia; no change is made to the 2022 forecast. Broiler export forecasts are reduced slightly for both 2021 and 2022. The 2021 turkey export forecast is reduced slightly from last month.
Fed cattle prices are raised for 2021 on current price strength and firm demand. The 2022 price forecast is also raised. The 2021 hog price forecast is raised on lower expected production. Broiler and turkey price forecasts are raised for 2021 and 2022 on demand strength.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, increased feed and residual use, greater exports, and higher ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2021/22 are 70 million bushels higher based on a lower use forecast for 2020/21, with reductions in corn used for ethanol and exports. Corn production for 2021/22 is forecast at 15.0 billion bushels, up 246 million from last month on increases to harvested area and yield. The national average yield is forecast at 176.3 bushels per acre, up 1.7 bushels, while harvested area for grain is forecast at 85.1 million acres, up 0.6 million. Total U.S. corn use for 2021/22 is up 150 million bushels to 14.8 billion. Feed and residual use is raised 75 million bushels based mostly on a larger crop and lower expected prices. Exports for 2021/22 are up 75 million bushels to 2.5 billion. With supply rising more than use, ending stocks are increased 166 million bushels to 1.4 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 30 cents to $5.45 per bushel.
This month’s 2021/22 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, greater trade, and increased stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher relative to last month with increases for China and Argentina more than offsetting reductions for Russia and Serbia. China corn production is raised with a boost in yield prospects, based mostly on near to above normal rainfall in the key Northeast provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, and Liaoning. Argentina corn production is raised based on expectations of higher area. Foreign barley production is virtually unchanged, as increases for Australia, Ukraine, and the EU are essentially offset by declines for Canada and Russia.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for reduced supplies, slightly higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and decreased ending stocks. Supplies are reduced as imports are lowered 10 million bushels to 135 million on the import pace. Food use is raised 2 million bushels to 964 million, reflecting an upward revision of 2020/21 food use. Exports are unchanged at 875 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are reduced 12 million bushels to 615 million and are 27 percent below last year and the lowest in eight years. The projected 2021/22 season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $6.60 on reported NASS prices to date and price expectations for the remainder of 2021/22.
The global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for increased supplies, higher consumption, more trade, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are projected rising by 7.1 million tons to 1,072.8 million, on the combination of larger beginning stocks for Canada, EU, and India and higher production for Australia, India, and China. Australia’s production is raised 1.5 million tons to 31.5 million on continued widespread favorable conditions to date. This would be Australia’s third largest wheat crop on record. India’s production is increased 1.5 million tons to 109.5 million on the government’s 4th Advance Estimate and this would be India’s fifth consecutive record crop.
