CZ Cattle Market Analytics: Ed Czerwien
The Five-area formula sales volume totaled 245,741 head compared to about 242,000 the previous week. The Five-area total cash steer and heifer volume was 65,313 head compared to about 61,000 head the previous week.
Nationally reported forward contracted cattle harvested was about 49,000 head again this week and packers had 193,000 head for July along with 150,000 head for August. The nationally reported 15-30 day delivery purchases this week were 20,764 head along with about 28,000 head for the previous week.
Now looking at the prices. The weekly weighted average cash steer price for the five-area region was $120.77, which was $2.05 lower compared to the previous week and last year the same week it was $97.24 which was about $0.90 higher that week last year. The same week in 2015 it was $145.48 even though the daily Choice cutout now was still 36 dollars higher. This week the current five area weighted average live steer formula price was $123.13 and the live formula heifer price was $123.65.
The weighted average Five-area cash dressed steer price was $196.78 which was $1.02 lower. The five-area weighted average formula price which is steers and heifers was $197.42 which was $0.43 lower.
The estimated weekly total FIS cattle harvest for week ending July 24 was reported at 648,000 head and compared to 640,000 head the same week last year. The year to date total is now over 800,000 head higher than last year.
The latest average National steer carcass weight for WE July 10 was 885 lbs which was 1 lbs higher than the previous week and compared to 902 lbs the same week last year which 6 lbs higher than the previous week last year.
Choice-Select spread on Friday was at 16.69 compared to 16.15 the previous week and that compared to 11.14 spread last year.
Boxed beef recap:
The daily spot Choice box beef cutout ended the week on Friday July 23 at $266.63 which was $1.31 lower compared to previous Friday which is now about $71 lower during the last six weeks. However, it is still much higher than all previous years yet. Last year it was $201.77 on the same Friday, which was about $1 higher. During 2015 it was $230.70 on the same Friday so still about 36 dollars higher yet.
The end of this week the daily Choice Chuck and Round primal were $4 to $6 lower and they both have been creeping lower but still much higher than all previous years now. The daily Choice Rib was $22 higher and Loin primal was $2 lower but the Rib had already dropped about $170 lower. The weekly total for the daily cutout was 687 loads and about 8 % of the weekly total loads sold.
The weekly average Choice cutout which includes all types of sales including the daily Choice cutout was 265.46 which was $3.67 lower.
The total sales were 8011 total loads sold for the week which was 1020 loads higher than the previous week and the biggest number in many weeks helped by the exports.
The out-front sales which get delivered after 21 days were 2281 loads which was 670 loads higher than last week and no doubt included some exports. The largest out-front sales this week included about 2.5 million lbs of Choice Round products that were steady to only 1 lower priced than the same current formula prices, so good volume and good prices.
The exports as reported on the Box Beef report were 1831 loads which was 1103 loads higher compared to the previous week and the biggest number in quite a while. This week 89 loads were sold to our NAFTA neighbors and 1742 loads were going overseas.
Formula sales were at 3453 loads which was 148 loads higher than last week and about 43 percent of the total loads sold this week.
Taking a look at the major primal cuts which impact the cutout value and the weekly average numbers include all of the different types of sales. The weekly average Choice Chuck and Round primal were 5 to 6 lower but still higher than all previous years now which had stopped the cutout from dropping lower at a faster rate.
The weekly average Choice Rib primal was 10 higher and the Loin primal was 11 lower so they both continue to follow the movement in the daily prices.
The daily cow cutout ended the week on Friday July 23 was $ 1.66 lower at $230.78 and the 90% trimmings were at $279.58 which was $ 3.96 lower compared to the previous Friday.
The latest report of Imported meat passed for entry into the U.S. for week ending July 17 showed 23,796 metric tons of fresh beef which was about 1400 higher than the previous week and about 3400 lower than last year. The year to date total for these imports is 8 % lower than last year so it continues to be much lower. The top 4 countries are Canada which is number one and is 9 % higher than last year, Mexico is the second highest but 10 % lower than last year, New Zealand is 2 % lower, and Australia which is 42 % lower.