U.S. corn production is raised 175 million bushels for 2021/22, based on increased harvested area forecast from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Corn yields remain unchanged as national precipitation levels have been below-average, but do not represent an extreme deviation from the 1988 to 2020 average. Barley and oat production for 2021/22 is lowered, however, based on the first survey-based yield forecast published by NASS. Corn usage is expected to be higher for both the 2020/21 and 2021/22 marketing years. The result is lower corn ending stocks estimated for 2020/21 and higher ending stocks projected for 2021/22. Price forecasts are raised $0.05 per bushel for the 2020/21 estimate and reduced $0.10 per bushel for the 2021/22 projection.
Higher corn supplies and reduced competition from Brazil boost U.S. corn export prospects for 2021/22. The U.S. export projection for 2020/21 is unchanged at an all-time high, resulting in an almost 40 percent share in global corn trade, the highest since 2017/18, a year when all three other major corn exporters—Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine—had weather-related crop problems. With lower projected sorghum and barley supplies, U.S. exports for both crops are expected to decline. With lower availability of U.S sorghum, China is projected to source part of its sorghum imports from Argentina. Canadian barley imports are expected to decline and be fractional.