The Cattle Range Market Trendlines:
The markets are showing the effects of the larger cow herd. Direct country sales and auction receipts of stocker calves and feeder cattle have increased, as have feedyard placements. Ample and increasing supplies of beef are a given, leaving demand as the unknown in the price equation.
10 Day Market Trendlinelower.
Change from Previous Day: -1.76%
Change from 10 Days Ago: -7.55%
Change from 60 Days Ago: +9.07%
60 Day Market Trendline
The Trendlines are indicators of overall cattle/beef market strength and are based on daily market factors. Each daily factor is the aggregate weighted total of the Gain/(Loss) for 12 market indicators compared to the previous trading day.
Weekly Market Overview:
National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Weekly Summary:
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week 320,200 26,600 2,200 349,000
This Week 358,200 43,600 2,000 403,800
Last Year 297,600 62,700 1,800 362,100
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold mostly steady to 5.00 lower; giving back all of last week's advances. Fed cattle traded earlier than normal this week, mostly Wednesday at 119.00 in the Southern Plains and mostly 190.00 dressed in the Northern Plains; 5.00 lower and 2.00 to 4.00 lower respectively.
Tuesday and Friday of this week saw feeder cattle futures remarkably lower. The market is in need of some bullish news to sustain the current trading levels. Packers have still had an appetite to keep the chain speed ramped up for market ready steers and heifers. Actual cattle slaughter for w/e November 4, 2017 was reported near 646K, around 13K more than the previous five week average. The dressed steer slaughter weight has now been reported over 900 lbs for the second week in a row, however still 11 lbs under year ago's published weight.
Retailers have been increasing beef specials even with Turkey Day upon us. This week, standing rib roasts were the most advertised items on the National Retail Beef Report with near 1/3 of all stores sampled having that item on their circular. Middle meat volumes on that report are near 75 percent higher than a week ago as beef tries to move volume this week and consists of 36 percent of the total activity index this week. The Restaurant Performance Index was pegged at 100.7 for the month of September, 0.5 percent higher than August.
After the last couple weeks of large auction volume on this report, total receipts were curtailed by more than 50K when compared to last week. NASS’s Cattle on Feed was released this afternoon, with cattle on feed November 1 totaling 106 percent and cattle placed on feed in October totaling 110 percent, both above estimates. Fed cattle marketed in October came in at 106 percent, in line with industry guesses. October is an important month when referencing placements as it is the largest month in regard to number of animals placed into feedyards. Auction volume this week included 38 percent weighing over 600 lbs and 40 percent heifers. All of us here at the Federal/State Market News Service wish all of you a happy and pleasant Thanksgiving.
Stocker & Feeder Cattle Weekly Receipts:
Weekly sales of Stocker Calves & Feeder Cattle sold via auctions, direct country sales, and video/Internet sales as reported by the UDSA Market News
Five Year Moving Average - Stocker, Feeder, & Slaughter Steers:
Cattle Futures Summary: Live cattle futures finished the week with most contracts 45 to 90 cents in the red. Feeder cattle futures were down $1 to $2.175. The CME feeder cattle index will be delayed due to reporting issues with the USDA cash data. Wholesale beef prices were mixed on Friday afternoon. Choice was down $3 at $207.24, with select boxes 2 cents higher at $187.85. USDA indicated weekly FI cattle slaughter at 639,000 head through Saturday, 16,000 larger than a week ago and 10,000 above the same week in 2016. The Cattle on Feed report showed Nov 1 on feed numbers at 11.332 million head 6.25% larger than last year. Placements of cattle in October were 10.23% larger than a year ago at 2.393 million head, with marketings of 1.801 million head, 5.63% above last year.
Mexican Feeder Cattle Weekly Import Summary
Receipts EST: 25,000 Week ago Act: 20,522 Year ago Act: 18,643
Compared to last week steer calves and yearlings 5.00-8.00 lower. Heifers 5.00 to 8.00 lower. Trade active, demand good. Supply consisted of steers and spayed heifers weighing 300-700 lbs.
Feeder steers: Medium and large 1&2, 300-400 lbs 181.00-197.00; 400-500 lbs 163.00-178.00; 500-600 lbs 145.00-160.00; 600-700 lbs 135.00-150.00; Medium and large 2&3, 300-400 lbs 170.00-182.00; 400-500 lbs 152.00-163.00; 500-600 lbs 138.00-148.00.
Feeder heifers: Medium and large 1&2, 300-400 lbs 155.00-165.00; 400-500 lbs 145.00-155.00; 500-600 lbs 135.00-145.00.
Selected Auction Reports:
"Click" on individual auction links for complete report
Green Forest Livestock Auction - Green Forest AR
Receipts: 792 Last Week: 798 Year Ago: 1030
Compared to one week earlier, slaughter cows mostly steady to 2.00 higher, slaughter bulls steady, feeder bulls steady, feeder heifers steady, feeder steers 3.00 higher, bull calves unevenly steady to 6.00 higher,
El Reno Cattle Narrative - El Reno OK
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
14,548 11,387 11,073
14,548(100%) 11,387(100%) 11,073(100%)
** Final Report *** Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers traded 3.00-6.00 lower with instances to as much as 9.00 lower on heavier weight yearlings. Steer and heifer calves that were weaned and under 500 lbs sold 2.00-4.00 higher.
Tulia Livestock Auction - Tulia TX
Receipts: 3237 Last Week: 2734 Year Ago: 2578
Compared to last week: Yearling steers and heifers sold 3.00 to 7.00 lower. Stocker steers and heifers sold with a higher undertone. Trade was active on moderate to good demand.
Pratt Livestock Feeder Cattle Auction - Pratt, KS
Receipts: 3406 Last Week: 3096 Year Ago: 3702
Compared with last week: Feeder steers in a limited supply 4.00-8.00 lower; heifers not enough Medium and Large 1 for an accurate market test, however a steady to firm undertone noted.
Clovis Livestock Auction - Clovis NM
Receipts: 5161 Week Ago: 4791 Year Ago: 4479
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers mostly 1.00-2.00 higher; instances 4.00-5.00 higher over 600 lbs. Slaughter cows steady to 3.00 lower. Bulls steady to 1.00 higher though quality more attractive.
Farmers & Ranchers Livestock Commission Co. - Salina KS
Receipts: 4711 Last Week: 3993 Year Ago: 3866
Compared to last week: Steers 650-1050 lbs 1.00-4.00 lower; 650 lbs and under lower undertone noted. Heifers 700-1050 lbs 1.00-3.00 higher; 700 lbs and under lower undertone noted. Trade and Demand moderate.
Mitchell Livestock Wtd Avg Report - Mitchell SD
Receipts: 3740 Last Week: 4343 Year Ago: 3672
Compared to last week: Steer calves under 700 lbs 2.00 to 5.00 lower, over 700 lbs steady to 2.00 higher. Heifer calves under 550 lbs 6.00 to 10.00 lower, over 550 lbs 4.00 to 8.00 lower.
Cattleman's Livestock Auction - Dalhart, TX
Cattle and Calves: 2991 Week ago: 3088 Year Ago: 2949
Compared to last week: Steer and heifer calves 300-600 lbs sold firm to 4.00 higher. Weaned calves over 600 lbs steady to weak; unweaned, fleshy kinds 3.00-5.00 lower. Feeder steers and and heifers over 600 lbs steady to 2.00 lower.
Oklahoma National Stockyards - Oklahoma City, OK
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
10,818 10,644 8,713
*** Add Close Updating with actual receipts *** Compared to last week: Feeder steers sold 2.00-6.00 lower, with instances of 10.00-13.00 lower. Feeder heifers 1.00-11.00 lower, with instances of 17.00 lower.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg - Carthage MO
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
6,175 8,877 4,843
***CLOSE** Compared to last week, steer calves steady except under 450 lbs and 600 weights steady to 3.00 higher, yearlings steers steady to 2.00 lower, heifer calves and yearling heifers 3.00 to 6.00 lower.
Blue Grass South Livestock Market - Stanford KY
Receipts: 695 Last Week: 938 Year Ago: 811
Compared to last Monday:Feeder steers and heifers Steady with good demand for feeder classes.Slaughter cows and bulls steady,Moderate demand for slaughter classes.
Sioux Falls Regional Livestock wtd Avg Report - Worthing SD
Receipts: 2857 Last Week: 3285 Year Ago: 2827
Compared to last week: Steer calves 2.00 to 5.00 lower, best comparison of heifers were 500-550 lbs 5.00 to 8.00 lower. Yearling steers and heifers steady in a narrow comparison. Moderate to good demand for calves, good demand for yearlings.
Tri-State Livestock Auction Market - McCook NE
Receipts: 1670 Last Week: 3168 Year Ago: 2400
No good price comparison from last week with quality less attractive. Supply comprised of 56 percent steers 57 percent of the run weighing over 600 lbs.
Winter Livestock - La Junta CO...
Receipts: 1569 Last Week: 1391 Year Ago: 1642
Total Receipts for Mon and Tues sale: 9930 Compared with last Tuesday: Steer and heifer calves in a light test mostly steady. Yearling feeder steers and heifers lightly tested. Slaughter cows 2.00 higher. Slaughter bulls steady.
Huss Platte Valley Auction - Kearney NE
Receipts: 4616 Last Week: 3084 Year Ago: 3505
Compared to last week steers sold mostly steady and heifers unevenly steady. Buyers bid readily from start to finish for longtime weaned and bawling calves and most offerings had preconditioned shots.
Valentine Livestock Auction Market - Valentine NE
Receipts: 3730 Last week: 3870 Last year: 0
Compared with last week 500 to 650 lbs steers traded unevenly steady and 450 to 550 lbs heifers traded steady to 8.00 higher. Demand was good with several buyers. Feeders made up 100 percent of the offering.
Cullman Stockyard - Cullman AL
Receipts: 1460 Last Week: 1157 Year Ago: 1515
Compared to last week: Slaughter cows and bulls sold steady to 2.00 higher. Feeder bulls and steers sold 3.00 to 4.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold 2.00 to 3.00 higher. Replacement cows and pairs sold steady.
Toppenish, WA Livestock Auction - Toppenish WA
Receipts: 2400 Last Week: 2500 Year Ago: 1940
Compared to last Thursday at the same sale, stocker and feeder cattle 2.00-6.00 higher as local feed yards pursue numbers. Trade active with good demand. Slaughter cows and bulls 4.00-8.00 lower as supply exceeds demand.
Russell Wtd Avg Feeder Cattle Auction - Russell IA
Receipts: 2505 2 weeks ago: 3781 Year Ago: 1831
Compared to the sale 2 weeks ago: Feeder strs under 650 lbs. mostly 1.00-3.00 lower, feeder strs over 650 lbs. mostly 6.00-10.00 lower and feeder hfrs mostly 3.00-5.00 lower. Trade Active and Demand Good today.
Denison Wtd Avg Feeder Cattle Auction - Denison IA
Offerings of cattle over 600 pounds was 56.1 percent with 57.4 percent steers and 42.6 percent heifers.
Direct Sales of Feeder & Stocker Cattle:
WY, Western NE & Western Dakotas Direct Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg (Fri)
Receipts: 395 Week Ago: 700 Year Ago: 720
No comparable sales this week for a market comparison. True yearling feeder cattle are harder to find every week. However, just around the corner there will be a lot of warmed up calves that should hit the market after the Thanksgiving Holiday.
AZ-CA-NV Weekly Feeder Cattle Review (Fri)
Compared to last week, not enough head trade for a test. Trade slow, demand light. Bulk of Supply consisted of 275-325 lb Holstein steers. Cattle weighing over 600 lbs totaled 0 percent. Heifers totaled 0 percent.
IA-South MN Direct Feeder Cattle Weekly (Mon)
Receipts: 0 Last Week: 329 Last Year: 87
Compared to the last week: Feeder steers and heifers not tested this week. Harvest fpr the most part should be over after this weekend. Prices based on net weights FOB after a 3 percent shrink or equivalent and 5-10 cent slide on calves and 4-6 cent slide on yearlings from base weights.
Eastern Cornbelt Direct Feeder Cattle Summary (Fri)
This week: 245 Last Week: 1,790 Last Year: 427
Compared to last week: No current FOB delivered cattle for an accurate market test again this week. Supply included 100 percent over 600 lbs; 0 percent heifers.
Colorado Direct Feeder Cattle Report (Fri)
Receipts: 1,052 Last Week 4,558 Last Year 1,224
Compared to last week: No current FOB trades this week for an accurate market ted. Demand moderate to good. Supply consisted of 100 percent over 600 lbs; 34 percent heifers.
Kansas Direct Feeder Cattle Summary (Fri)
Receipts: 4786 Last Week: 6694 Year Ago: 6504
Compared with last week: steers comparable FOB sales 3.00-5.00 lower; heifers not enough comparable sales for a true market test, however a lower undertone noted. Sales confirmed on 3171 steers,
Montana Direct Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg (Fri)
Receipts: 0 Last Week 820 Last Year 0
Compared to last week: No comparable receipts for feeder Steers and heifers. Supply includes 0 percent over 600 lbs and 0 percent heifers. Unless otherwise stated prices are FOB weigh point with a 2-3 percent shrink or equivalent and with a 8-12 cent slide on calves and 4-8 cent slide on yearlings from base weights.
New Mexico Feeder Cattle Report (Mon)
Receipts: 1400 Last Week: 2700 Year Ago: 6900
Compared to last week: Not enough comparable sales of feeder steers or heifers for an adequate market trend. Trade activity was moderate on light to moderate demand. Supply consisted of 50 percent steers and 50 percent heifers.
Northwest Wtd Avg Direct Feeder Cattle Report (Fri)
Receipts: 352 Last Week: 630 Year Ago: 1100
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers not well tested.Cattle futures turned south this week and limited demand somewhat. The feeder supply included 100 percent over 600 lbs and 43 percent heifers.
Oklahoma Direct Feeder Cattle (Fri)
Receipts: 2,272 Last Week 979 Last Year 2,471
Compared to last week: No comparison was available this week for an accurate market trend for feeder steers and heifers. Receipts this week consisted of 86 percent over 600 lbs and 20 percent heifers.
Texas Direct Feeder Cattle (Fri)
Receipts: 13,600 Last Week: 20,800 Year Ago: 41,900
Compared to last week: Current FOB sales of steers and heifers sold steady to 4.00 lower. Trade activity was moderate on moderate to good demand. Negotiated cash fat cattle declined this week and sold at 119.00 which affected the feeder cattle yearlings market.
Extensive U.S. & Canadian Auction Results are available on The Cattle Range
Representative Sales of Cows & Pairs:
Reported by USDA Market News for the week ending November 17th
El Reno, OK:
Replacement Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 1-6 yr old 750-1350 lb cow 2-7 months bred 800.00-1250.00; 3-6 yr old 1225-1425 lb cow 4-8 months bred, some black, 1310.00-1425.00; 7-10 yr old 1150-1450 lb cow 4-7 months bred 710.00-1075.00 per head.
Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2 5-7 yr old 1250-1425 lb cow, some black, w/100-150 lb calf 1150.00-1650.00 per pair.
Replacement Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 1-8 yr old 975-1325 lbs cow 4-8 months bred 860.00-1085.00; 1-6 yr old 975-1250 lbs cow 4-8 months bred 900.00-1185.00; 9-10 yr old 1075-1375 lb cows 4-8 months bred 800.00-960.00 per head.
Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2 1-6 yr old 925-1325 lb cow w/125-300 lb calf 1010.00-1235.00; 7-8 yr old 725 lb cow w/325 lb calf 770.00 per head.
Oklahoma City, OK:
Replacement Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 2-4 yr old 950-1300 lb 2-6 month bred black cows 835.00-1135.00; 4-6 yr old 1025-1475 5-7 month bred black cows 1100.00-1350.00; 5-10+ yr old 1000-1450 lb 2-7 month bred black cows 650.00-960.00 per head.
Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2 8-10 yr old 1000-1100 lb cow w/100-300 lb calf 1025.00-1100.00 per pair.
Replacement Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 Bred Heifers 900-1250 lbs 4-7 months bred cows, some black, 1285.00-1575.00; 8-10 yr old 1175-1350 lb 4-6 months bred cows, some black, 950.00-1110.00; 10+ yr old 1100-1400 lbs 4-7 months bred cows, some black, 710.00-900.00 per head.
Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2 2-6 yr old 900-1200 lb cow, some black, w/100-275 lb calf 1510.00-1775.00 per pair.
Replacement Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 Young to long solid mouth 805-1590 lb cows 3-8 months bred 800.00-1250.00, per head; middle aged short solid mouth cows 845-1500 lbs 3-8 months bred 700.00-1025.00, per head; aged 1050-1450 lb cows 3-8 months bred 500.00-825.00, per head. First Calf Heifers: 840-1120 lb cows 1-8 months bred 600.00-875.00, per head.
Cow/Calf Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2 Young indiv 950 lb cow w/250 lb calf 1000.00, per pair.
Replacement Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 Young 875-1190 lb cows 3-8 months bred 800.00-1125.00, per head; 810-1190 lb cows 1-3 months bred 500.00-850.00, per head; middle aged short solid mouth cows 850-1220 lb 3-8 months bred 600.00-900.00, per head; 785-1230 lbs 1-3 months bred 430.00-700.00, per head; aged 855-1440 lb cows 3-8 months bred 600.00-850.00, per head.
Cow/Calf Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2: Middle aged 1175-1200 lb cows w/250-400 lb calves 1300.00, per pair; middle aged indiv 1200 lb cow w/250 lb calf 1025.00, per pair; indiv 1025 lb cow w/200 lb calf 925.00, per pair.
Dodge City, KS- Bred Cows: Medium and Large 1, second calf, bred 2nd stage 33 head 993-1015 lbs 1750.00. Medium and Large 1-2 First Calf Bred 2nd stage 8 head 826 lbs 1025.00; Mostly broken mouth Medium and Large 2-3 Bred 2nd stage 28 head 1216-1319 lbs 710.00-860.00 (774.91); Bred 1st stage 34 head 1072-1198 lbs 625.00-635.00 (633.20); 34 head 1216-1256 lbs 625.00-650.00 (647.73); Large 2-3 bred 1st stage 44 head 1299-1314 lbs 670.00-675.00 (672.51).
Cow/calf pairs: Medium and Large 2 Broken mouth 8 head 1294 lbs with 200-275 lbs calves 1475.00
Bred Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 2-6 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 1000-1360 lbs 1000.00-1475.00, 1st stage couple 985-1200 lbs 1000.00-1025.00; short and solid mouth to aged most 2nd few 3rd stage 1125-1365 lbs 640.00-935.00. Large 1-2 5 yrs to short and solid mouth 2nd and 3rd stage 1400-1620 lbs 875.00-1100.00; short and solid mouth to aged 2nd stage 1400-1500 lbs 720.00-935.00. Medium and Large 2 2-7 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 990-1200 lbs 775.00-1150.00. Medium 1-2 2-7 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 685-1055 lbs 800.00-1050.00, 1st stage 1020 lb indiv. 875.00; short and solid mouth to aged 2nd and 3rd stage 955-1050 lbs 545.00-775.00 per head.
Cow/Calf Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2 4-7 yrs 1100-1285 lb cows w/babies to 370 lb calves and some rebred 1250.00-1425.00; short and solid mouth 1110-1300 lb cows w/babies to 300 lb calves 900.00-1100.00. Medium and Large 2 short and solid mouth 1100 lb cow w/baby calf 900.00. Medium 1-2 2-4 yrs 725-1025 lb cows w/145-210 lb calves and a few rebred 1000.00-1075.00 per pair.
Bred Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 2-7 yrs most 2nd few 3rd stage 1050-1305 lbs 1075.00-1325.00, 1st stage couple 920-1175 lbs 950.00-1025.00; short and solid mouth to aged most 2nd few 3rd stage 1190-1360 lbs 725.00-925.00. Large 1-2 2-4 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 1225-1368 lbs 1150.00-1250.00; short and solid mouth to aged 2nd stage 1415-1450 lbs 755.00-830.00. Medium 1-2 2-6 yrs 2nd stage 725-945 lbs 750.00-960.00; broken mouth 2nd stage pkg. 1050 lbs 645.00 per head.
Cow/Calf Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2 2-5 yrs 1000-1335 lb cows w/babies to 390 lb calves 1150.00-1325.00; short and solid mouth to aged 1100-1365 lb cows w/babies to 220 lb calves 950.00-1100.00. Medium 1-2 2-5 yrs 800-960 lb cows w/165-375 lb calves 1050.00-1300.00 per pair.
West Plains, MO:
Bred Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 2-6 yr old 832-1515 lb cows in the 2nd-3rd stage 1100.00-1475.00 per head, 1st stage 1000.00-1150.00 per head; 7 yrs to broken mouth 1010-1540 lb cows in the 2nd-3rd stage 900.00-1075.00 per head. Medium and Large 2 2-7 yr old 665-1415 lb cows in the 2nd-3rd stage 825.00-1025.00 per head; Short-solid to broken mouth 895-1410 lb cows in the 2nd-3rd stage 675.00-850.00 per head.
Cow-Calf Pairs: Few Medium and Large 1-2 3-6 yr old 1130-1200 lb cows with 100-250 lb calves 1175.00-1475.00 per pair; 7 yr to short-solid mouth 1137-1140 lb cows with 150-200 lb calves 1000.00-1100.00 per pair.
La Junta, CO:
Replacement Stock: Medium and Large 1 Young 1165-1350 lbs 1700.00-1900.00, mostly 1800.00-1875.00, heavy load fancy 1130 lbs 2100.00, May calvers 1260-1370 lbs 1425.00-1550.00, summer calvers 1210-1250 lbs 710.00-800.00; middle age 1260-1375 lbs 1250.00-1350.00; aged short solid mouth 1270-1330 lbs 975.00-1010.00, broken mouth 1070-1370 lbs 750.00-850.00.
Cow-Calf pairs: Medium and Large 1 Young 1000-1200 lbs with 100-225 lb calves 1300.00-1400.00, 1250-1300 lbs with 250-325 lb calves 1475.00-1550.00; middle age 1175-1250 lbs with 100-250 lb calves 1150.00-1275.00.
Replacement Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 2-7 year old 850-1250 lbs second & third stage 84.00-94.00/900.00-1000.00, first stage/open 70.00-80.00, 7-10 year old second & third stage 52.00-62.00/675.00-775.00 per head.
Cow-Calf Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2 3-7 yr old 800-1200 lb cow w/100-200 lb calf 1025.00-1125.00, few to 1400.00; w/200-300 lb calf 1050.00-1150.00; 7-10 yr old w/100-200 lb calf 875.00-975.00 per pair.
Alberta Beef Producers: Alberta direct cattle sales so far this week have seen light trade develop with dressed sales ranging from $245.00-250.00 delivered. Buyers were indicating that cattle bought this week would be lifted in 1-3 weeks. Stronger basis levels did encourage producers to market cattle.
Canadian Cattle Prices:
Prices have been converted to U.S. $/CWT. Grades changed to approximate U.S. equivalents
Exchange Rate: Canadian dollar equivalent to $0.7869 U.S. dollars
Prices for the week ending November 10th:
The "Nord Fork"
Replaces Flankers at Branding
November USDA Cattle on Feed Report
United States Cattle on Feed Up 6 Percent
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.3 million head on November 1, 2017. The inventory was 6 percent above November 1, 2016.
Placements in feedlots during October totaled 2.39 million head, 10 percent above 2016. Net placements were 2.32 million head. During October, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 675,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 590,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 510,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 368,000 head,900-999 pounds were 160,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 90,000 head.
Marketings of fed cattle during October totaled 1.80 million head, 6 percent above 2016.
Other disappearance totaled 73,000 head during October, 28 percent above 2016.
Cattle on Feed Inventory in 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots as of November 1st
Millions of Head
Number of Cattle Placed on Feed in 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots in October
Millions of Head
Number of Cattle Marketed from 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots in October
Millions of Head
Cattle on Feed by State as of November 1st
2017 Brings Better Then Anticipated Cow-Calf Returns
Livestock Marketing Information Center
Cattle prices during the fourth quarter of 2017 were significantly stronger than expected. Higher prices caused 2017's calculated cow-calf return over cash costs plus pasture rent to be revised up. In fact, earlier in 2017, the forecast was for returns to be negative, but they actually will be positive.
Since the mid-1970's, the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) has estimated annual cow-calf returns based on a typical commercial full-time spring calving and fall weaning operation. Those estimates are not survey-based and are developed for market analysis purposes. They do not represent an individual ranch/farm resource base. LMIC calculations only include cash costs of production and pasture rent. That is, return to owner management, labor, etc., are not included. The returns are useful only in a general context. For example, the LMIC uses those estimates because producer return is a key factor influencing national herd growth or contraction.
In the Southern Plains, using auction prices reported by USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service (Market News Division), in mid-November the LMIC projected that steer calves weighing 500-to 600-pounds in 2017's fourth quarter would be in the upper $160's per cwt., a year-over-year increase of $28.00 to $29.00 per cwt. (up about 21%). Still, compared to the last quarter of 2015, Southern Plains steer calf prices this fall are projected to be lower by $36.00 to $37.00 per cwt. (a drop of about 18%).
As 2017 progressed, several positive demand factors came together supporting cattle prices in the face of a larger national calf crop (2017's was estimated at mid-year by USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service as the largest since 2007's) and more U.S. beef production than in any year since 2010. Foreign demand was better than expected. The tonnage of U.S. beef sold to other countries was record-large. Demand by packers for slaughter-ready animals was robust and helped pull animals through feedlots, keeping slaughter weights below 2016's. U.S. retailers battled for customers, and one tool they used was featuring beef and offering special prices. A robust U.S. economy bolstered consumer incomes and reduced unemployment levels, factors that supported spending on beef meals at home and in restaurants.
For the year, 2017's cash production costs per cow were slightly higher compared to a year earlier. Of course, many areas of the U.S. this year suffered from natural disasters (drought, wildfires, or flooding), which caused their production costs to spike-up. LMIC estimated that cow-calf returns peaked in 2014, surging to about $535.00 per cow. However, by 2016 the return had crumbled into the red (-$21.00 per cow). For 2017, the LMIC calculation is for a positive $69.00 per cow, which is about the same as posted in 2011. That return may not cover all economic production costs, especially for relatively high-cost operations.
A cautionary note is in order. Returns may erode for the next two years. Cyclically, U.S. calf crops are forecast to continue increasing throughout 2019. U.S. beef tonnage produced in 2018 is expected to be record-large and should rise in 2019, again. Unless demand (domestic and foreign) for beef comes in much better than anticipated, calf prices are forecast to slip for the next two years. Still, calf prices in the fourth quarters of both 2018 and 2019 could remain above 2016's depressed level. However, any faltering in demand relative to 2017's could quickly send cattle prices back down to 2016 levels.
USDA Eliminates GIPSA as An Agency
Less than a month after USDA said it was postponing controversial organizational shifts for its Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration (GIPSA) and its Codex food safety office, Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue has moved ahead on both.
In a memo to stakeholders dated Nov. 14, Perdue outlined realignment of a number of USDA offices, including eliminated GIPSA as a standalone agency. Instead, USDA will establish within the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) a deputy administrator for fair trade practices.
The Fair Trade Practices Program area will be comprised of the following AMS programs: Perishable Agricultural Commodities Act Program, the Country of Origin Labeling Program, and the Bioengineered Labeling Program.
The Packers and Stockyards Program formerly part of GIPSA and the Warehouse Act functions formerly part of the Farm Service Agency (FSA) will be transferred to AMS and included in the Fair Trade Practices Program area.
The Organization for Competitive Markets (OCM) issued a statement condemning the move, saying, “We are stunned that Secretary Perdue continues to erode farmers’ and ranchers’ anti-monopoly protections, as this action further weakens the marketplace safeguards we need to compete in an ever consolidating industry. America’s farmers and ranchers can’t take much more abuse by large multinational and foreign corporations, nor the facilitation of that abuse by the department that Abraham Lincoln once called “the people’s department.”
OCM is a non-profit public policy research and advocacy organization with a mission to represent the interests of family farmers.
USDA National Retail Beef Report:
Advertised Prices for Beef at Major Retail Supermarket Outlets
This week in Beef Retail, the Feature Rate increased by 6.5 percent, the Special Rate increased by 2.0 percent, the Activity Index charted a 14.0 percent increase all in response to a shortened reporting period last week. A significant increase in Ribeye Roast and Tenderloin Roasts was noticed as retailers are gearing up for the holidays in hopes beef will take center stage on holiday tables around the country. Cuts from the Rib and Round saw more ad space while cuts from the Chuck, Loin, Brisket, and Ground Beef saw less ad space. The cattle slaughter under federal inspection posted a 2.5 percent increase.
On $1.20 Cattle and $25 Tenderloins
Laura Conaway -- Certified Angus Beef LLC
It’s an honest mindset: cattle prices go up, beef prices go up; cattle prices go down, beef prices… stay where they are?
“What gives?” a producer may ask.
“Don’t always assume that retail price is driven off of the price of goods,” Mark McCully said. The vice president of production for the Certified Angus Beef (CAB) brand commented on the disconnect between ranch and retail, breaking it down at Angus University during the Angus Convention, Nov. 4-6 in Fort Worth, Texas.
Encompassing the entire supply chain, the world’s largest beef brand draws insight from all angles. McCully said one common question from the ranch is why retail beef prices differ so much from what producers get for their cattle. The answer is essential for cattlemen making decisions about genetics and what traits to emphasize.
“Producers will walk into a grocery store and see a price per pound that’s significantly higher than the price they sold those fed cattle for to the packer,” he said, “so it begs the question, ‘why?’”
To answer, he began with a finished steer sold at $1.21 per pound (/lb.), before breaking down costs along the way that go into retail pricing.
A 1,400-lb. steer at that price costs the packer nearly $1,700. From there, the 866-lb chilled carcass is applied to the comprehensive cutout of $2.08/ lb. Applying a drop credit for hide and offal of $0.12/ lb. or $161 provides a gross profit of $265/head.
“Year-to-date, it’s good to be a packer,” McCully said, but there’re costs associated with marketing and sales, processing and packaging. There’s an average of $20/head just in bag and box cost, he said. Assuming about $200/head in total processing costs, that moves gross profit to a net of only $65/head.
So what about that tenderloin sold in the grocery store for nearly $25/lb.? McCully broke it down further.
On a 900-lb. carcass, only 14 lb. make up two prized tenderloins. That’s 1.6% of the carcass weight that commands 7.2% of its entire value, McCully said, making it the most expensive cut on the carcass.
Selling wholesale at $9.70/ lb. and applying a 30% margin adds up to that subprimal cost of approximately $175.28.
“Cattlemen have a bit of a struggle accepting margin,” McCully said, “because that isn’t how we get to work. “We don’t get to determine our cost, throw a 30% gross margin on and say ‘this is what we’re selling our calves for,’ but when you get to the other side of this, that’s how their business attempts to work.”
They have a store to run, meat cutters to pay, he said. Not to mention, there’s a chunk of business between the packer and retail store that producers aren’t always aware of.
“We want to make sure we don’t just skip over that because there’s cost involved, complexities that are really important in terms of the logistics, the flow to get our high-quality product from the packer, ultimately to the consumer.”
Holding that $175.28 cost associated with the tenderloins, McCully subtracted $44 in credit from trim and lesser value items to end up with $130.59. Dividing that number by the 5.3 average pounds of center cut filets brings a price per pound of $24.64.
“Those are just some of the pricing mechanics that ultimately come into play in these costs producers see,” McCully said.
From there, he said, it’s important to determine the quality of the product in question. “Is it Select, is it Prime, because there’s added value when you get up to the higher quality grades,” he said.
With an average Choice/CAB spread of $9.23 per hundredweight, there’s roughly $83 of value attributed to a 900-lb. carcass that qualifies for CAB over Choice.
“As a farm kid, this has been a straight up and down learning curve,” McCully said of nearly 17 years with the brand. “Understanding how retailers think, how they price products, all the math and things they go through to price their meat case.”
Once you’ve determined the value of the product, then it helps to know that every retailer has a specific approach to pricing. Perhaps it’s an every-day-low-price model, a high-low model or a premium experience.
Everything in the store is not priced with equal margins, McCully said. In fact, the meat case is often where those margins are the lowest, designed to differentiate the store from others, drive traffic and hope to make up for it when the customer purchases other goods.
“They all may be paying the same for their meat, but they’re going to price it differently based on the cost to run their business,” he said. Retailers have goals, both of sales and gross profits, that must be met.
It’s a part of the industry working together in tandem.
Photo of the Week:
Bad News-Good News of Cattle Markets
Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University
Current cattle markets can be thought of as a series of bad news-good news stories. The bad news is that cash fed cattle prices pulled back last week from the highs at the end of the week before. The good news is that the jump up to $124/cwt. live fed cattle prices was not expected and the current level in the $120-121/cwt. range is at or above most expectations for fed prices at this point.
After an unexpected run higher, live cattle futures prices also pulled back last week from highs the week before. Nevertheless, Live futures are still offering attractive levels to lock in fed cattle for the spring. It’s not clear if cattle futures are simply making a technical correction and some profit taking but the long speculative position in the markets makes it vulnerable to move lower. The opportunities currently offered may be fleeting.
A similar story exists for Feeder futures with recent moves lower from unexpectedly high peaks in early November. The good news is that moves lower have thus far been quite orderly and spring contracts remain at levels that offer unusual opportunities for feeder cattle producers to lock in attractive margins. As with Live Cattle futures, current Feeder futures are built on long speculative positions that could turn and allow an abrupt and sharp drop. The opportunity is there but may be passing.
Cash feeder cattle markets have remained unseasonably strong this fall… bad news for stocker buyers but good news for cow-calf producers. However, as noted above, even at current calf and stocker prices, good margin opportunity exists currently for stocker producers. There is certainly downside risk so risk management is advised.
There is bad news in that cattle slaughter is higher than last year reflecting the growth in cattle numbers the past three years. The good news is that steer and heifer carcass weights are sharply lower than last year and are offsetting a significant amount of increased cattle slaughter in 2017. The upcoming cattle on feed report is expected to show another month of large placements in October. This is certainly consistent with the strong feeder prices and larger feeder market volumes this fall. The good news is that feedlot marketings remain strong as well and are limiting growth in feedlot inventories.
In the bigger picture, the bad news is that feeder cattle supplies will continue to grow into 2018 and beef production is expected to increase another four percent year over year, on top of a roughly four percent increase this year from 2016 levels. Combined with increased pork and broiler production, total meat supplies will be larger in 2018. The good news is that strong beef demand, both domestically and internationally, has supported cattle and beef prices in 2017. At the current time, retail beef prices are holding close to year ago levels with boxed beef and cattle prices at all levels higher than this time last year.
In general, it seems clear that the good news outweighs the bad news in current cattle markets. However, there will continue to be uncertainty and challenges in the continuing cattle market demand and supply dynamics.
U.S. Dollar - 6 Month Chart:
Over the last 5 years, an average of around 10% of U.S. beef production has been exported, making exports an extremely important factor affecting beef and cattle prices. A strong dollar depresses export demand.
Choice Boxed Beef Cutout, Slaughter, & Feeder Steers:
Boxed beef cutout values sharply lower on Choice and steady on Select on light to moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings. Choice rib and loin cuts weak to lower while Select firm to higher. Select and Choice chuck cuts lower while round cuts steady to weak. Beef trimmings unevenly steady on light demand and offerings.
USDA indicated week to date FI cattle slaughter is 473,000 head, 9,000 larger than a week ago and 12,000 above the same week in 2016.
The USDA reported 2017 beef export sales at just 9,291 MT for the week ending 11/9, 44.6% below the previous week and 9.8% lower than this time last year.
The average value of hide and offal for the five days ending Fri, Nov 17, 2017 was estimated at 10.42 per cwt., up 0.29 from last week and down 1.52 from last year.
Tonnage of U.S. Red Meat Exports & Imports
Livestock Marketing Information Center
September’s U.S. beef and pork exports (data compiled by USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service and Economics Research Service) continued the trends of recent months. For the month, beef tonnage exported was 14% above a year ago and pork was up 2%. For 2017’s third quarter, beef volume jumped-up 13% year-over-year, while pork exports were unchanged.
U.S. imports also followed recent trends. In September, beef and pork volume increased year-over-year by 5% and 9%, respectively. Lamb imports continued to surge compared to 2016’s, rising 47% for the month and were up 34% during the third quarter.
On a net basis, in September, the U.S. exported more tons of beef than was imported for the first time since February of this year. U.S. pork exports to China and Japan have been limited by increasing Chinese production and aggressive competition in those markets by European countries.
37,000 Sign Petition To Reinstate COOL
On Nov. 14, Public Justice, The Ranchers-Cattlemen Action Fund (R-CALF), Food & Water Watch, and Farm Aid delivered the signatures of 37,299 Americans demanding that the Commerce Department, and the Trump Administration more generally, follow through on the campaign promise to create a level playing field for independent domestic meat producers through increasing transparency for consumers. These signatories have asked that Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross make country-of-origin labeling (COOL) a part of the administration’s trade policies.
Since the USDA ceased requiring COOL on pork and beef products in 2016, those products have been classified as domestic even when they are slaughtered in other countries and imported into the United States, a practice which confuses consumers and harms American farmers. More than 450 million pounds of the beef is raised and butchered annually in other countries and then imported to the United States in nearly exactly the form it will be sold to consumers. Yet, under current government policies, domestic processors can rip off the country-of-origin labels that are on the meat when it crosses the border and apply a “Product of U.S.A.” sticker before it is sold to consumers.
This mislabeling causes domestic ranchers and farmers to receive lower prices for their meat because multinational companies can import cheaper products and present it as homegrown. It also dupes consumers, approximately 70 percent of whom will pay more when they think meat was truly produced in the United States.
Restoring COOL was originally part of the Trump Administration’s 100 day plan. Now, almost a year into the Trump presidency, the corporate interests advising on its agriculture and trade policies are fulfilling their commitment to make COOL dead as a doornail.
Accordingly, the independent rancher group R-CALF, represented by Public Justice, is currently suing to restore COOL. This petition drive is designed to supplement that suit by pressuring the administration to keep its promise to pursue trade deals that help American producers, not multinational agribusiness. The next round of NAFTA renegotiation is set to begin later this week. NAFTA currently restricts the labeling on imported live cattle and hogs from Canada and Mexico, even though more than 89 percent of consumers say they want to know whether the meat they eat was born, raised, or slaughtered abroad. Yet, so far, the United States has not made COOL one of its proposed NAFTA reforms.
“The amazing response to this petition drive is yet more evidence that in addition to being illegal, the USDA’s current labeling regime is anti-farmer and anti-consumer. It is in the interest of both the American producer and American eater to know where our food comes from. Luckily for the administration, they have an opportunity to finally keep their campaign promise by making COOL a part of the NAFTA revisions,” said Public Justice Food Project Attorney David Muraskin.
“Reinstating COOL for beef will stop the multinational meatpackers’ practice of substituting beef produced from cattle raised by America’s family ranchers with cheaper, undifferentiated beef imports from around the world,” said R-CALF president Bill Bullard. “American cattle ranchers produce the best beef in the world under the best of conditions and they want American consumer to be able to choose their exclusively American beef in the grocery store.”
“Consumers deserve to know where their food comes but big meat companies have used international trade tribunals to attack country of origin labeling and limit consumers’ right to know,” said Wenonah Hauter, executive director of Food & Water Watch. “Meatpacking giants shouldn’t get to decide what we know about the food we buy. We need our elected officials to stand up for mandatory COOL.”
“Country-of-Origin Labeling (COOL) is a win-win for farmers and eaters. Without it, U.S. farmers have a harder time getting a fair price because corporate meat processors can import cheaper meat and pass it off as a domestic product,” said Alicia Harvie, Farm Aid’s advocacy and issues director. “Eaters want to support America’s family farmers. With COOL they can be sure they’re doing that.”
Feeder Steers/Corn Correlation:
Historically, the value of 25 bushels of corn is approximately equal to the price per cwt. for feeder steers.
Slaughter Cows & Bulls:
Slaughter cows and bulls sold steady to 3.00 higher. Demand moderate to good in the South Central region as hunting season has begun and this takes precedence over sending cows to market.
Cutter Cow Carcass Cut-Out Value Thursday was 168.17 -- Down 1.97 from last Friday.
Weight Colorado Oklahoma Alabama
Breakers 1100-1600 60.00-64.00 54.00-57.00 49.00-53.50
Boners 1000-1450 59.50-64.00 55.00-58.00 50.00-55.00
Lean 1000-1300 55.00-58.00 53.00-56.00 44.00-49.00
Bulls 1300-2500 80.00-83.50 74.00-77.00 74.00-77.00
# Head Week Ago Year Ago YTD Year Ago
National 8,433 8,273 8,443 44,135 45,912
S Central 2,689 2,593 2,484 13,588 13,196
N Central 743 739 737 2,723 3,921
East 2,133 2,565 1,999 11,430 11,429
West 1,209 1,062 1,592 7,260 8,621
Midwest 1,659 1,314 1,631 9,134 8,745
Est. Weekly Meat Production Under Federal Inspection:
Total red meat production under Federal inspection for the week ending Saturday, November 18, 2017 was estimated at 1055.3 million lbs. according to the U.S.Department of Agriculture's Marketing Service.
This was 1.0 percent higher than a week ago and 1.2 percent lower than a year ago. Cumulative meat production for the year to date was 3 percent higher compared to the previous year.
Weekly Hay Reports: "Click" on links for detailed report
Washington - Oregon (Columbia Basin)
Weekly Feedstuffs Market Review:
The USDA reports feed ingredient prices for the week ending November 14, 2017 were mixed.
Soybean Meal was mostly 3.20 to 5.20 lower. Cottonseed Meal was mostly steady. Canola Meal was steady to 38.30 lower. Linseed Meal was steady. Sunflower Meal was steady to 20.00 higher.
Whole Cottonseed was steady to 10.00 lower.
Crude Soybean Oil was 76 to 101 points lower, mostly 101 points lower. Crude Corn Oil was 35 points higher.
Ruminant Meat and Bone Meal was steady to 20.00 lower, mostly steady. Ruminant Blood Meal was mixed, 50.00 lower to 25.00 higher. Feather Meal was steady. Menhaden Fishmeal was steady.
Corn Hominy was steady to 10.00 higher, mostly steady. Corn Gluten Feed was steady. Corn Gluten Meal was mostly steady.
Distillers Dried Grain was mostly steady to 15.00 higher.
Wheat Middlings were steady to 30.00 higher. Wheat millrun was steady to 2.00 higher.
5 Year Bullish/Bearish Consensus Charts:
The theory behind the "Bullish/Bearish Consensus" indicator is when the public reaches a consensus, they are usually wrong:
They get too bullish after prices have risen and too bearish after they have already fallen.
Because of this tendency, there are often extremes in opinion right before major changes in trend:
When the public reaches a bullish extreme, i.e., a great majority thinks prices will keep rising, then prices often decline instead.
And when they become too bearish, then prices tend to rise.
So when Public Opinion moves above the red dotted linein the chart, it means that compared to other readings over the past year, you're seeing excessive optimism. You also want to look at the absolute level of Opinion, too - if it's at 90%, then there's no question we're seeing an historic level of bullish opinion. Watch for readings above 80% (or especially 90%) to spot those dangerous times when the public is overly enthusiastic about a commodity.
Conversely, when Public Opinion moves below the green dotted line, then the public is excessively pessimistic about the commodity's prospects for further gains compared to their opinion over the past year. Looking for absolute readings under 20% (or especially 10%) often indicates an upturn in the market.
Bullish/Bearish Consensus: Cattle
Bullish/Bearish Consensus: Corn.
Stock Markets & Economic News:
The large-cap indexes were flat to modestly lower for the week, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index and the smaller-cap benchmarks managed gains. Trading volumes began to dwindle later in the week in anticipation of the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday season. The week was notable, however, for the S&P 500 breaking a 50-day streak of avoiding a daily decline of greater than 0.50% -- the index fell 0.55% on Wednesday. As The Wall Street Journal and others reported, this was the longest such stretch since 1965. Energy stocks were notable outliers on the downside, as oil prices reversed some of the rally that began in early October.
The week started out on a cautious note as some soft data on Chinese industrial production caused a modest rotation toward safety -- and in the direction of the defensive utilities and consumer staples sectors, in particular. Heavily weighted General Electric (GE) fell nearly 7.2% on Monday after the company announced at an investor conference that it was halving its dividend. GE fell another 5.7% on Tuesday, while energy and materials stocks led the broader declines on the China data. Worries over China and a disappointing forecast for holiday earnings from retailer Target further weighed on sentiment on Wednesday.
Thursday brought a solid rebound in the market, but traders attributed it less to any specific development than a need for traders to cover short positions as well as a general move to “buy the dip.” Small-caps outperformed as investors seemed to seek out areas of the market that had lagged in recent weeks. The House passed a tax plan on Thursday that cut the top corporate rate all the way to 20%, as originally promised, but investors appeared to keep an eye on the significant hurdles to tax reform that lay ahead in the Senate. The Senate Finance Committee did approve a tax bill, but it varies from the House legislation and will need to be debated and voted upon by the full Senate in the weeks ahead.
Scientists Verify Benefits of Omega-3 Feeding Regimen
Study indicates no effect on flavor, tenderness or shelf life in beef and pork.
Dennis Nuttelman was pretty sure that the omega-3-enriched beef and pork he was selling from a family farm in Nebraska was not only healthy but that consumers would also think it tasted pretty good. Research from Kansas State University now is telling him he is right.
Meat scientists at the university are reporting results of a study that indicates that omega-3-enriched meat maintains its flavor, tenderness and shelf life just as well as meat that is not enriched with the beneficial fatty acid.
The human body needs omega-3 fatty acids to function, but they also have been shown to provide substantial health benefits. The U.S. National Institutes of Health reports that some of the benefits of a diet rich in omega-3 fatty acids include lower risks of heart disease, some cancers, age-related macular degeneration, rheumatoid arthritis and possibly even Alzheimer’s disease, Kansas State said in its announcement.
Omega-3 fatty acids have also been shown to improve a baby’s health and development when the mother’s diet includes them during pregnancy and breastfeeding.
John Gonzalez, a meat scientist at Kansas State University, said a past problem with simply adding omega-3 fatty acids to animals’ diet is that it would cause an off-flavor or accelerate discoloration in meat from that animal.
“The figure that has been thrown out in the history of meat science for the past 20 years is that $1 billion per year is lost just on meat being thrown away from being discolored,” Gonzalez said. “If you actually increase omega-3s and it has a negative effect, that’s a bad thing, because you may be able to sell for a greater price, but you have to throw away more of your products.”
Those concerns related to feeding omega-3-enriched diets to pigs and beef cattle may soon go away after Kansas State’s recent findings.
The university tested meat from animals fed omega-3s in a patented process called LIPEX, developed by XFE Products of Des Moines, Iowa. The diet was fed to animals at Omega 3 Family Farms of Columbus, Neb., where Nuttelman is the farm director.
Gonzalez and the Kansas State meat scientists found that the omega-3 content in the consumer meat product increased by 178%. Subsequent taste tests with trained panelists showed that there was no reported difference in the taste, color, tenderness or shelf life of the meat.
“So, what we know is that the level of omega 3s are increased, and those consumers who care about the level of omega-3s in the meat will pay the premium,” Gonzalez said. “The retailer doesn’t have to worry about throwing away the product, because this product will have a (reliable) shelf life.”
Nuttelman said his business had tested meat products for more than 15 years with Midwest Labs of Omaha, Neb., but had not previously worked with a public university to verify the benefits of the omega-3 products.
He added that the patented feeding process his company uses has increased marbling in the meat, which adds flavor.
"Click Here" to view a Slide Show of Drought Monitor maps for the last 12 weeks
Looking Ahead: During the next 5 days (November 16-20), Moderate precipitation at best is expected for most of the country. Amounts of 0.5 to locally approaching 2.0 inches are expected in the Northeast, the northern and central Appalachians, the eastern Great Lakes, and the central and northern sections of Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois. Farther west, more than 0.5 inch is forecast from the Sierra Nevada and the Cascades westward to the Pacific Ocean, with heavy amounts anticipated in the typical orographically-favored areas, specifically along the coast and on the windward (western) slopes of the mountains. Between 5.0 and 8.5 inches could fall on the Washington Cascades, northwestern Washington, the northwestern and west-central California Coast, and the Sierra Nevada. In addition, 0.5 inch or more is expected in some of the higher elevations of western Colorado, western Wyoming, central and north-central Utah, northeastern Nevada, and parts of Idaho. Isolated amounts of 2.0 to 4.5 inches could be dropped on the highest elevations and windward slopes.
During the 6-10 day period (November 21-25), odds favor above-median precipitation only across the Florida Panhandle, the northern Intermountain West, and the northern half of the West Coast States. Below-median precipitation is anticipated elsewhere except in the southern half of the High Plains, the northern Plains, most of the Great Basin, and the Southwest, where neither abnormal wetness nor dryness is favored. Warmer than normal weather is expected from the Pacific Coast eastward into the upper Mississippi Valley, the central Great Plains, and central Texas, with subnormal temperatures favored in most areas from the eastern Great Lakes and southern half of the Mississippi Valley eastward to the Atlantic Coast.
Fed Cattle Market... Getting It Done
Cassie Fish -- cassandrafish.com
With the release on Thursday morning of USDA’s actual slaughter and weight data for the week ended November 4, the governing positive fundamentals of 2017 were confirmed and remain in play. The fed kill for that week was 513k head, 30k above 2016 and the 7th largest fed kill of 2017. Steer carcass weights were up 1 pound at 902 pounds, down 12 pounds from last year. These two simple facts spell out currentness in no uncertain terms and confirm that, if anything, the packing industry continues to pull cattle hard on the front-end to satisfy demand and to celebrate their own profitability.
This fact will be price supportive as the market heads into larger numbers of yearling cattle that are on feed and will be available in January and February. Keep in mind though, fed cattle supplies for that timeframe will decline seasonally from the ample numbers of the last several months, and the fed kills will drop under 490k per week.
Front-end currentness ought to provide some price cushion as the market moves from its Q4 high to softer prices through year’s end.
Cash Trade Mostly Complete
There is a little trade occurring this morning at generally steady money on better cattle but for the most part, it’s a wrap, with $119 to $120.50 the range live and $189 to190 dressed. Some plants are well into week after next and quite a few green cattle traded with time for December pick up. Next week cash could trade steady to even a touch higher in the north where numbers are shortest- unless futures surprise with a breakout to the downside on Monday.
Choice/Select Spread Widens
Post the quality grading camera adjustments that occurred in late October, what many predicted would happen is occurring. The number of select cattle has increased about 5% nationally and the choice/select spread has widened over $20 and may well make a record for this time of year. At the same time, carcass weights peak in November, along with the number of yield grade 4s and 5s, so fat isn’t desirable either. Because of these factors, packers have been pickier about cattle purchased in some areas than usual.
CME cattle futures have traded mostly lower. The pace of the break has slowed along with the volume as the market approaches an oversold status. Yet, with tomorrow’s USDA Cattle-on-Feed report looming and a holiday-shortened trading week next week, there’s a growing interest in wait-and-see.
Feedyard Closeouts: Profit/(Loss)
Closeout projections are for cattle placed on feed by a cattle owner at a commercial feedyard and not for cattle owned by a feedyard and fed at cost or a farmer/feeder utilizing his own feed.
Typical closeout for un-hedged steers sold this week:
Placed On Feed 165 days ago = June 5th
P/(L) based on the futures when placed on feed: ($63.30)
Cost of 750 lb. steer delivered @ $149.85 per cwt: $1,123.88
Feed Cost for 600 lbs. @ $77.23 per cwt: $463.38
Interest @ Prime + 2% on cattle cost for 165 days: $29.21
Interest @ Prime + 2% of the feed cost for 165 days: $6.02
Total Cost & Expense: $1,622.49
Sale proceeds: 1,350 lb. steer @ $120.00 per cwt: $1,620.00
This week's Profit/(Loss) per head: ($2.49)
Profit/(Loss) per head for previous week: $91.21
Change from previous week: -$93.70
Sale price necessary to breakeven: $120.18
Projected closeout for steers placed on feed this week:
Projected Sale Date @ 165 days on feed = May 1st
Cost of 750 lb. steer delivered @ $155.53 per cwt: $1,166.48
Feed Cost for 600 lbs. @ $74.79 per cwt: $448.74
Interest @ Prime + 2% on cattle cost for 165 days: $31.64
Interest @ Prime + 2% of the feed cost for 165 days: $6.09
Total Cost & Expense: $1,652.94
Sale proceeds: June Futures @ $124.87 per cwt: $1,685.75
This week's Profit/(Loss) per head: $32.81
Profit/(Loss) per head for previous week: $55.68
Change from previous week: -$22.87
Sale price necessary to breakeven: $122.44
Slaughter Cattle: Friday negotiated cash trade was limited on light demand in the Southern Plains with a few live purchases steady compared to Wednesday at 119.00. Trade was very limited on light demand in the Northern Plains and Western Cornbelt. Not enough purchases in those regions for an adequate market test. On Wednesday in Nebraska, live purchases traded from 119.00-120.00 with a few up to 120.50. Dressed purchases traded from 188.00-190.00, bulk at 190.00. In the Western Cornbelt on Wednesday live purchases traded from 119.00-120.00, with a few up to 120.50. Dressed purchases traded from 188.00-190.00. In Colorado for the week a few purchases have been reported from 119.00-120.50 and 190.00, respectively. However, not enough sales for an adequate market test with live purchases last week at 124.00.
Negotiated Sales: Confirmed: 7,670 Week Ago: 10,307 Year Ago: 2,324
Formula Purchases: Net - Dressed
Head count priced today: 12,700
Weighted avg weight: 873.00
Weighted avg net price: 194.79
The FCE On-Line Auction offered 969 head on Wednesday with 617 head sold @ weighted average price $ 119.21.
Livestock Slaughter under Federal Inspection:
CATTLE CALVES HOGS SHEEP
Friday (est) 118,000 2,000 461,000 8,000
Week ago (est) 112,000 2,000 458,000 7,000
Year ago (act) 115,000 3,000 436,000 5,000
Week to date (est) 591,000 10,000 2,319,000 39,000
Last Week (est) 576,000 10,000 2,304,000 38,000
Last Year (act) 576,000 11,000 2,199,000 41,000
Saturday (est) 48,000 0 154,000 1,000
Week ago (est) 47,000 0 191,000 1,000
Year ago (act) 53,000 0 329,000 0
Week to date (est) 639,000 10,000 2,473,000 40,000
Last Week (est) 623,000 10,000 2,495,000 39,000
Last Year* (act) 629,000 11,000 2,527,000 41,000
2017 YTD 28,103,000 442,000 106,111,000 1,698,000
2016 *YTD 26,645,000 415,000 103,488,000 1,771,000
Percent change 5.5% 6.5% 2.5% -4.1%
US Farmland Price Decline 'Past the Worst'
Central bankers unve iled hopes that at least the worst was over for the US farmland market, despite continuing worries over farm incomes – and a cut in funds for ag lending in the Corn Belt for the first time since 2006.
The US Federal Reserve’s Chicago bank, which covers an area encompassing top Corn Belt growing states Illinois, Indiana and Iowa, said that regional land prices were unchanged for the July-to-September period, extending a period of flat performance.
“The district did not experience a year-over-year decrease or increase in its agricultural land values greater than 1% in the past four quarters,” Chicago Fed senior business economist David Oppedahl said, adding that “such relative stability in farmland values had not occurred… since 1970”.
Further south, the St Louis Fed, which covers states such as Arkansas and Mississippi, up to southern Corn Belt areas, said that values of “quality” farmland rose 1.1% - on a year-on-year basis – in the July-to-September period, while those of ranchland and pastureland gained 4%.
‘Longest since 1980s’
And while prices fell in the central Plains - particularly important as wheat growing and cattle ranching area - by 3% for non-irrigated cropland and 6% for irrigated plots, this represented a slowdown in the pace of decline, which was termed “modest” by the Fed’s Kansas City bank.
Indeed, the bank highlighted that the “duration of the recent downturn in cropland values has approached that of the 1980s”, the last time US farm prices suffered a notable recession, although “the magnitudes of recent [price] declines have yet to approach the magnitudes of the 1980s”.
Then the pace of year-on-year price decline topped 20% at its peak, in 1985.
The relative slowdown in the deterioration reading, drawn from surveys of lenders, came despite a continued deterioration in farm incomes, a trend which the St Louis Fed said had now continued unbroken since early 2014, and which the Kansas City Fed had begun in its district in 2013.
“A majority of bankers reported that farm income was lower than a year ago, but that the pace of the decline was less significant than recent quarters,” the Kansas City Fed said.
The sector’s woes have been reflected in lower rates of loans allocated by banks to agriculture, with all three banks reporting a net decrease.
In Chicago, Mr Oppedahl said that “for the first time since the third quarter of 2006, the availability of funds for lending by agricultural banks was lower relative to a year earlier”.
‘Notably weaker demand’
Indeed, Mr Oppedahl added that Corn Belt lenders are forecasting “notably weaker demand by farmers to acquire farmland this fall and winter compared with a year ago”.
However, most bankers forecast stable prices, he said, adding that “a fairly tight supply of available properties for sale may contribute to the continued stability of farmland values”.
The St Louis Fed reported some expectation of a decline in “quality” farmland prices short-term, but a flat market for ranchland and pastureland.
Values in the Plains, meanwhile, “were expected to decline further in the coming months”, teh Kansas City Fed said, but added that “a larger share of bankers reported some improvement in the region’s agricultural economy.
“Going forward, agricultural economic conditions are still expected to remain subdued and financial stress in the farm sector may intensify further, but the sharp transition of recent years appears to be lessening.”
Weekly Corn Crop Condition Report:
National Grain Summary:
Last week's export sales totaled 37.6 million bushels of corn with shipments totaling 16.4 million bushels, soybeans sales totaled 40.6 million bushels and shipments totaled 82.9 million bushels. Wheat export sales totaled 19.1 million bushels with shipments totaling 10.9 million bushels. These figures may be viewed as bearish for all three commodities. Shipments for corn are down 41% from last year and soybean shipments are down 11% from last year.
On Friday, corn and soybean markets took back some of this week’s loses with support from commercial buying interest. With corn posting a 6 1/2 cent gain on the December contract and soybeans rallying an 18 1/2 cent gain on the January contract. Wheat was mixed from 4 cents lower to 10 cents higher. Corn was
mostly 10 to 18 cents higher. Sorghum was 11 cents higher. Soybean were mostly 18 cents higher.
Corn futures closed Friday with most contracts 4 – 6 1/2 cents higher, as Dec came back to only lose a half cent on the week. Pre-weekend profit taking gets some of the credit. The CFTC report on Friday showed the spec funds holding a new record net short position of -230,556 contracts as of November 14. The national US average cash price on Thursday was $2.98 1/4, 4 1/4 cents lower than this time last year. The average basis was -38 1/4 cents, which is 8 cents stronger than the harvest low. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated that the Argentine corn crop was 35.4% planted, vs. 40% this time last year. AgRural estimates that the first corn crop in Brazil is 63% planted, compared to 79% last year and the average of 65%.
Wheat futures were 3 to 5 1/2 cents higher in most contracts on Friday. The Friday Commitment of Traders report showed the big spec funds easing out of some of their short Chicago SRW positions, trimming them 16,509 contracts in the week ending November 14. They were still net short 108,576 contracts at that time. The French winter wheat crop is 95% planted according to the country’s AgriMer, with the crop rated at 97% gd/ex. Forecasts for Australia are showing mainly dry weather over the next week, helping harvest there to move along.
Five Year Moving Average - Corn & Wheat:
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