The Cattle Range Market Trendlines:
For the week, dressed beef was higher, cattle futures lower, and cash cattle slightly higher to slightly lower. Despite increased supplies of cattle in 2017, the market was driven higher by excellent domestic and foreign demand for U.S. beef. Beef production will likely increase modestly in 2018, as will pork and chicken production. Per capita beef consumption in the U.S. increased this year as disposable income increased and unemployment dropped but is likely to level out in 2018, leaving additional price gains for cattle contingent upon increased export demand for beef. In 2018, the best market indicators may well be international business and geopolitical news.
10 Day Market Trendlinelower
Change from Previous Day: -1.20%
Change from 10 Days Ago: +2.04%
Change from 60 Days Ago: +14.78%
60 Day Market Trendline
The Trendlines are indicators of overall cattle/beef market strength and are based on daily market factors. Each daily factor is the aggregate weighted total of the Gain/(Loss) for 12 market indicators compared to the previous trading day.
Weekly Market Overview:
National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Weekly Summary:
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week 358,200 43,600 2,000 403,800
This Week 331,900 51,200 18,200 401,300
Last Year 270,800 31,200 22,100 324,100
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold 1.00 to 5.00 higher, with some markets quoted up to 8.00 higher. One of the most talked about subjects currently in auctions is the readily available status of calves; weaned and unweaned. Demand was moderate to good this week for calves that were preconditioned and weaned for an appropriate amount of time. While demand was light for calves with no shots or only one round of shots.
Very good demand for yearlings early in the week after last week’s much higher fed cattle market; however the luster has come off that apple as analysts surmised that both the CME cattle complex appeared to be oversold and have now come off of their contract highs of Halloween week. With the current price structure of the CME Live Cattle contracts the best demand is for yearlings and for those big calves that will finish before the summer months.
Market reporters have noted less crowds in attendance at sales due to farmers and ranchers wanting to finish harvest and complete fall tillage work before taking on some more chores with winter fast approaching. In Philip SD on Tuesday, two loads of steers that averaged 733 lbs with all the bells and whistles sold at 185.00.
The YTD average steer carcass weight reported through September for 2017 is at 812 lbs; 13 lbs below a year ago and 9 lbs below the previous year average. Total cattle slaughter is around 1.4 million more than 2016 and just a mere 9K more than the previous three year average. The most dramatic jump in YTD slaughter rate for January to September is the heifer slaughter which has posted near 670K head more. Choice boxed beef closed Friday at 213.85; 5.11 higher than last week.
For the second week in a row, total receipts on this report topped 400K; the last time that occurred was w/e 1/11 and 1/18 in 2013. Auction volume this week included 39 percent weighing over 600 lbs and 39 percent heifers.
Stocker & Feeder Cattle Weekly Receipts:
Weekly sales of Stocker Calves & Feeder Cattle sold via auctions, direct country sales, and video/Internet sales as reported by the UDSA Market News
Five Year Moving Average - Stocker, Feeder, & Slaughter Steers:
Cattle Futures Summary: Livestock futures ended the week sharply lower as traders reacted to softening cash markets. Prices for physical cattle and hogs have been steady to lower this week. With supplies for both forecast to grow next year, analysts expect further pressure on cash prices ahead. Live cattle futures for December fell 1.6%, to $1.20575 a pound, at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Friday, down 6% after peaking last week. December lean hog futures fell 1.1%, to 62.475 cents a pound, down 8%.
Mexican Feeder Cattle Weekly Import Summary
Receipts EST: 21,000 Week ago Act: 19,533 Year ago Act: 12,220
Compared to last week steer calves and yearlings steady to 5.00 lower. Heifers steady to 3.00 lower. Trade active, demand good. Supply consisted of steers and spayed heifers weighing 300-700 lbs.
Feeder steers: Medium and large 1&2, 300-400 lbs 185.00-205.00; 400-500 lbs 165.00-185.00; 500-600 lbs 145.00-170.00; 600-700 lbs 140.00-155.00; Medium and large 2&3, 300-400 lbs 173.00-188.00; 400-500 lbs 153.00-170.00; 500-600 lbs 133.00-155.00.
Feeder heifers: Medium and large 1&2, 300-400 lbs 160.00-173.00; 400-500 lbs 150.00-163.00; 500-600 lbs 140.00-153.00.
Selected Auction Reports:
"Click" on individual auction links for complete report
Green Forest Livestock Auction - Green Forest AR
Receipts: 798 Last Week: 852 Year Ago: 1178
Compared to one week earlier, slaughter cows mostly steady to 3.00 lower, slaughter bulls steady, feeder bulls mostly steady, feeder heifers lightly tested, feeder steers unevenly steady, bull calves unevenly steady, heifer calves 2.00 to 6.00 lower, steer calves 8.00 lower, replacement cows unevenly steady.
El Reno Cattle Narrative - El Reno OK
Receipts: Last Week: Year Ago:
11,387 10,597 9,972
*** Final report *** Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers traded 2.00-4.00 higher with a light test on feeder heifers. Demand for feeder cattle remains good for all classes.
Tulia Livestock Auction - Tulia TX
Receipts: 2734 Last Week: 2623 Year Ago: 1879
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers sold mostly steady on limited comparable sales. Trade was fairly active on moderate to good demand especially on conditioned yearlings. Slaughter cows and bulls made up 3 percent, 1 percent replacements, and 96 percent feeders. Feeder supply consisted of 51 percent steers and bulls, 49 percent heifers. Near 74 percent of the run weighed over 600 lbs.
Pratt Livestock Feeder Cattle Auction - Pratt, KS
Receipts: 3096 Last Week: 1896 Year Ago: 3620
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 800-1000 lbs 4.00 higher. Feeder heifers not enough Medium and Large 1 for a market test. Not enough steer and heifer calves for a market test. Trade and demand moderate. Slaughter cows and bulls steady to weak.
Clovis Livestock Auction - Clovis NM
Receipts: 4791 Week Ago: 5261 Year Ago: 2102
Compared to last week: Feeder steers under 500 lbs mostly 1.00 lower; over 500 lbs mostly steady except 500-600 lbs instances 1.00 higher. Heifers under 600 lbs 1.00-3.00 higher; over 600 lbs steady to 1.00 higher. Slaughter cows mostly steady to 1.00 lower on comparable quotes. Bulls steady. Trade active, demand very good on all classes.
Farmers & Ranchers Livestock Commission Co. - Salina KS
Receipts: 3993 Last Week: 2370 Year Ago: 1802
Compared to last week: Steers 750-950 lbs steady to 2.00 higher; 750 lbs and under higher undertone noted. Heifers 700-1050 lbs 3.00-4.00 lower; 700 lbs and under steady undertone noted. Trade active and Demand good.
Mitchell Livestock Wtd Avg Report - Mitchell SD
Receipts: 4343 Last Week: 3330 Year Ago: 2805
Compared to last week: In a narrow comparison steer calves steady to 5.00 higher, heifer calves only comparison was 500-600 lbs 3.00 to 7.00 higher. Yearling feeder steers 3.00 to 6.00 higher, heifers steady to 2.00 higher. Moderate to good demand for calves, very good demand for yearlings.
Cattleman's Livestock Auction - Dalhart, TX
Cattle and Calves: 3088 Week ago: 2923 Year Ago: 1944
Compared to week ago: Receipts included mostly current year calf crop with most having pre-weaning vaccinations only, a few being weaned three to six weeks; most were still carrying a significant amount of milk fat. Steer calves sold steady to weak; heifer calves were weak to 3.00 lower, instances 5.00 lower.
Oklahoma National Stockyards - Oklahoma City
Receipts: Last Week: Year Ago:
10,644 8,743 5,947
*** Add Close Updating with actual receipts*** Compared to last week: Feeder steers traded 4.00-8.00 higher, feeder heifers 7.00-10.00 higher. Lightweight steer calves 2.00 lower and 500-700 lb steer calves brought 5.00-9.00 higher. Heifer calves traded 2.00-5.00 higher. Demand was very good for most all classes, especially feeder cattle and with exception to lightweight unweaned steer calves.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg - Carthage MO
Receipts: Last Week: Year Ago:
8,877 4,981 3,838
***CLOSE*** Compared to last week, steer calves steady to 3.00 lower, heifer calves 1.00 to 3.00 higher, yearling steers 2.00 to 4.00 higher, yearling heifers 3.00 to 8.00 higher. Demand moderate to mostly good, supply heavy.
Blue Grass South Livestock Market - Stanford KY
Receipts: 938 Last Week: 618 Year Ago: 896
Compared to last Monday:Feeder steers and heifers 2.00-5.00 higher,Very good demand for feeder classes. Slaughter cows and bulls steady, Moderate demand for slaughter classes.
Sioux Falls Regional Livestock wtd Avg Report - Worthing SD
Receipts: 3285 Last Week: 3493 Year Ago: 1069
Compared to last week: Steer and heifer calves, narrowly compared. Steer calves unevenly steady, best comparison of heifers 500-550 lbs 3.00 to 6.00 higher other weights not well compared.
Tri-State Livestock Auction Market - McCook NE
Receipts: 3168 Last Week: 2800 Year Ago: 2750
Compared to last week, steers under 500 lbs sold mostly steady, instances 10.00 higher on a tight 400 lbs offerings, 500 to 650 lbs steers sold 5.00 to 6.00 higher. Heifer calves sold unevenly steady on the day. Not enough yearling feeder cattle for an adequate market comparison.
Winter Livestock - La Junta CO...
Receipts: 1391 Last Week: 1400 Year Ago: 1307
Compared with last Tuesday: Steer and heifer calves in a light test mostly steady. Yearling feeder steers 2.00 higher. Yearling feeder heifers in a light test steady. Slaughter cows and bulls 2.00 higher. Demand moderate to good.
Huss Platte Valley Auction - Kearney NE
Receipts: 3084 Last Week: 3480 Year Ago: 3264
Compared to last week steers and heifers sold steady to 3.00 lower. Demand was good from the buyers in the crowd with internet activity noticed. Around 240 head of slaughter cows and bulls are included in the receipts. The calf and feeder supply included 63 percent steers and 37 percent heifers with near 67 percent of the run weighing over 600 lbs.
Valentine Livestock Auction Market - Valentine NE
Receipts: 3870 Last week: 4630 Last year: 3580
Compared with last week 500 to 600 lbs steers traded steady to 8.00 lower and 500 to 600 lbs heifers traded steady to 16.00 lower. Demand was good with several buyers.
Direct Sales of Feeder & Stocker Cattle:
WY, Western NE & Western Dakotas Direct Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg (Fri)
Receipts: 700 Week Ago: 489 Year Ago: 320
No comparable sales from last week for a market comparison. Demand was good for all reported cattle. True yearling feeders are getting tougher to find every week for feedlots. But, after the Thanksgiving holiday there usually are more longtime weaned calves for feedlots to choose from to fill empty pens.
AZ-CA-NV Weekly Feeder Cattle Review (Fri)
Compared to last week, 325 lb Holstein steers for current through Jan delivery traded mostly steady. Trade slow, demand light. Bulk of Supply consisted of 325 lb Holstein steers. Cattle weighing over 600 lbs totaled 0 percent. Heifers totaled 0 percent.
IA-South MN Direct Feeder Cattle Weekly (Mon)
Receipts: 329 Last Week: 0 Last Year: 0
Compared to the last week: Feeder steers and heifers not tested last week. Prices based on net weights FOB after a 3 percent shrink or equivalent and 5-10 cent slide on calves and 4-6 cent slide on yearlings from base weights. Supply included 100 percent over 600 lbs; 100 percent heifers. Delivered prices include freight, commissions and other expenses. Current sales are up to 14 days delivery.
Eastern Cornbelt Direct Feeder Cattle Summary (Fri)
This week: 1,790 Last Week: 1,664 Last Year: 117
Compared to last week: No current FOB delivered cattle for an accurate market test again this week. Supply included 98 percent over 600 lbs; 81 percent heifers. Prices based on net weights FOB after a 3 percent shrink or equivalent and 5-10 cent slide on calves and 4-6 cent slide on yearlings from base weights. Delivered prices include freight, commissions and other expenses. Current sales are up to 14 days delivery.
Colorado Direct Feeder Cattle Report (Fri)
Receipts: 4,558 Last Week 2,880 Last Year 1,220
Compared to last week: No current FOB trades this week for an accurate market ted. Demand moderate to good. Supply consisted of 100 percent over 600 lbs; 34 percent heifers. Unless otherwise stated prices are FOB with a 2-3 percent shrink or equivalent and with a 8-12 cent slide on calves and 4-8 cent slide on yearlings from base weight.
Kansas Direct Feeder Cattle Summary (Fri)
Receipts: 6694 Last Week: 5900 Year Ago: 2305
Compared with last week: Feeder steers 3.00-6.00 higher; Feeder heifers not enough sales confirmed last week for a true market comparison, however a higher undertone noted. Trade active, demand good as true yearling cattle are in a very tight supply.
Montana Direct Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg (Fri)
Receipts: 0 Last Week 820 Last Year 0
Compared to last week: No comparable receipts for feeder Steers and heifers. Supply includes 0 percent over 600 lbs and 0 percent heifers. Unless otherwise stated prices are FOB weigh point with a 2-3 percent shrink or equivalent and with a 8-12 cent slide on calves and 4-8 cent slide on yearlings from base weights. Current sales up to 14 days for delivery.
New Mexico Feeder Cattle Report (Mon)
Receipts: 2,700 Last Week: 1,300 Year Ago: 1,000
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers sold with a higher undertone on limited comparable sales. Trade was fairly active on moderate to good demand. Supply consisted of 30 percent steers and 70 percent heifers. 100 percent of the offerings weighed over 600 lbs. Note: Feeder cattle prices based on net weights FOB after 3 percent
pencil shrink or equivalent.
Northwest Wtd Avg Direct Feeder Cattle Report (Fri)
Receipts: 630 Last Week: 1595 Year Ago: 0
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers not well tested, however again a higher undertone was noted. Demand continues very good for feeder cattle following another week of increases in the fed cattle market.
Oklahoma Direct Feeder Cattle (Fri)
Receipts: 979 Last Week 7,478 Last Year 2,447
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers traded with a higher undertone on very limited offering this week. Receipts this week consisted of 92 percent over 600 lbs and 8 percent heifers. Unless otherwise stated prices are FOB weigh point with a 2-3 percent shrink or equivalent and with a 8-12 cent slide on calves and 4-8 cent slide on yearlings from base weights. Current sales up to 14 days for delivery.
Texas Direct Feeder Cattle (Fri)
Receipts: 20,800 Last Week: 26,400 Year Ago: 19,100
Compared to last week: Current FOB sales of steers and heifers sold mostly steady to instances 3.00 higher. Trade was fairly active on good demand. A few wide prices spreads due to trades made late last Friday when the CME board was significantly higher. Supply consisted of 68 percent steers and 32 percent heifers. Approximately 97 percent of the offerings weighed over 600 lbs.
Extensive U.S. & Canadian Auction Results are available on The Cattle Range
Representative Sales of Cows & Pairs:
Reported by USDA Market News for the week ending November 10th
El Reno, OK:
Replacement Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 2-4 yr old 775-1325 lb cow 3-7 months bred 800.00-1185.00; pkg 7 yr old 1625 lbs 5 months bred 1250.00; 7-10 yr old 1150-1525 lbs 4-8 months bred 750.00-1100.00 per head.
Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2 10 yr old 1350-1400 lb cow w/50-75 lb calf 900.00-1000.00 per pair.
Replacement Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 1-4 yrs old 900-1250 lb cow 4-8 months bred 910.00-1350.00; pkg 5-6 yrs old 1425 lb cow 6-8 months bred 1200.00; 7-8 yrs old 975-1425 lb cow 4-8 months bred 900.00-1010.00 per head.
Oklahoma City, OK:
Replacement Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 1-6 yrs old 975-1425 lbs 3-6 months bred 1200.00-1375.00; 1-6 yrs old 825-1450 lbs 2-7 months bred 800.00-1175.00; 7-10 yrs old 1100-1550 lbs 4-7 months bred 725-1000.00 per head.
Replacement Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 Heifers 975-1000 lbs black 4-7 months bred 1185.00-1275.00; 3-6 yrs old 1300-1425 lbs some black 4-8 months bred 1450.00-1685.00; 4-7 yrs old 1100-1400 lbs black 4-7 months bred 1000.00-1300.00; 7-10 yr old 1100-1275 lbs some black 2-7 months bred 700.00-1000.00; 10+ yrs old 1000-1425 lbs some black 4-8 months bred 725.00-925.00 per head.
Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2 3-5 yr old 1400-1425 lb black cow w/100-275 lb calf 1625.00-1700.00 per pair.
Replacement Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 Young to long solid mouth 946-1595 lb cows 3-8 months bred 925.00-1350.00, per head; middle aged short solid mouth cows 960-1690 lbs 3-8 months bred 800.00-950.00, per head; aged 990-1385 lb cows 3-8 months bred 600.00-950.00, per head. First Calf Heifers: 810-1008 lb cows 3-8 months bred 800.00-1025.00, per head.
Cow/Calf Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2 Young 1100-1400 lb cows w/150-300 lb calves 1000.00-1225.00, per pair.
Dodge City, KS:
Bred Cows: Medium and Large 2 young bred 1st trimester 6 head 868 lbs 875.00; solid mouth 18 head 1160 lbs 1175.00; 7 head 1400 lbs 1200.00; bred 2nd trimester 15 head 1223 lbs 1085.00. Broken mouth bred 1st trimester 14 head 1188 lbs 1085.00; 1275-1470 lbs 850.00-950.00 (899.71); Bred 2nd trimester 1310-1360 lbs 835.00-950.00 (857.99); Bred 3rd trimester 12 head 1346 lbs 985.00. Medium and Large 2-3 bred 1st trimester 1315-1360 lbs 750.00-875.00 (785.91).
Replacement Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 Young 842-1270 lb cows 3-8 months bred 850.00-1350.00, per head; middle aged 970-1290 lb cows 3-8 months bred 650.00-1000.00, per head; aged 780-1410 lb cows 3-8 months bred 400.00-850.00, per head.
Cow/Calf Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2 Middle aged 900-1600 lb cows w/100-300 lb calves 975.00-1150.00, per pair; aged indiv 1150 lb cows w/160 lb calf 1075.00, per pair.
Bred Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 2 yrs to short and solid mouth 2nd and 3rd stage 950-1370 lbs 1075.00-1435.00, 1st stage 1030-1290 lbs 925.00-1150.00; short and solid mouth 2nd and 3rd stage 1100-1325 lbs 775.00-1000.00; broken mouth 2nd and 3rd stage 1095-1300 lbs 590.00-780.00. Large 1-2 2 yrs to short and solid mouth 2nd and 3rd stage 1120-1585 lbs 1025.00-1250.00; short and solid mouth to aged 2nd and 3rd stage 1450-1600 lbs 825.00-1085.00. Medium and Large 2 2-6 yrs 2nd stage 850-1045 lbs 700.00-950.00. Medium 1-2 2-6 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 750-1050 lbs 735.00-985.00; short and solid mouth to aged 2nd and 3rd stage 985-1050 lbs 470.00-620.00 per head.
Cow/Calf Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2 2 yrs to short and solid mouth 895-1345 lb cows w/babies to 380 lb calves and some rebred 1300.00-1600.00; short and solid mouth to aged 1175-1265 lb cows w/babies to 210 lb calves 1000.00-1250.00. Large 1-2 5 yrs pkg. 1570 lb cows w/300-350 lb calves 1425.00. Medium 1-2 2-3 yrs 790-1050 lb cows w/babies to 275 lb calves and a few rebred 1150.00-1160.00 per pair.
Bred Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 2-6 yrs most 2nd few 3rd stage 1100-1250 lbs 1000.00-1225.00, 1st stage 835-1320 lbs 900.00-1075.00; short and solid mouth most 2nd few 3rd stage 1170-1315 lbs 710.00-960.00; broken mouth 2nd stage 1125-1355 lbs 595.00-725.00. Large 1-2 2-6 yrs 1st and 2nd stage 1280-1485 lbs 1100.00-1285.00; broken mouth 3rd stage 1470 lb indiv. 750.00. Medium and Large 2 3-4 yrs 2nd stage 1045-1170 lbs 785.00-900.00, 1st stage 740 lb indiv. 725.00. Medium 1-2 2-5 yrs most 2nd few 3rd stage 800-995 lbs 860.00-1025.00, 1st stage 770-920 lbs 835.00-920.00; short and solid mouth 2nd stage 1025-1045 lbs 785.00-875.00; broken mouth 2nd stage 815 lb indiv 550.00 per head.
Cow/Calf Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2 2-5 yrs 900-1340 lb cows w/150-425 lb calves and a few rebred 1200.00-1425.00; short and solid mouth to aged couple 1180-1275 lb cows w/babies to 250 lb calves 1000.00. Large 1-2 broken mouth pkg. 1510 lb cows w/260-310 lb calves 1235.00 per pair.
West Plains, MO:
Bred Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 2-6 yr old 953-1565 lb cows in the 2nd-3rd stage 1000.00-1375.00 per head, 1st stage 950.00-1100.00 per head; 7 yrs to short-solid mouth 1105-1595 lb cows in the 2nd-3rd stage 900.00-1100.00 per head. Medium and Large 2 2-7 yr old 745-1450 lb cows in the 1st-3rd stage 700.00-1000.00 per head; Short-solid to broken mouth 970-1420 lb cows in the 2nd-3rd stage 600.00-825.00 per head.
Cow-Calf Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2 4-6 yr old 1192-1199 lb cows with 200-250 lb calves 1150.00-1375.00 per pair; Short-solid to broken mouth 945-1385 lb cows with 100-200 lb calves 925.00-1100.00 per pair. Medium and Large 2 2-7 yr old 900-1220 lb cows with 100-200 lb calves 1025.00-1200.00 per pair.
Spring Bred Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 AI Bred Heifers 912-950 lbs 1500.00-1575.00; 962-993 lbs 1700.00-1710.00; 1002-1093 lbs 1550.00-1950.00; 1329 lbs 1700.00. Bull Bred Heifers 840-843 lbs 1375.00-1425.00; 913-990 lbs 1385.00-1575.00;1028-1094 lbs 1525.00-1700.00; 1106-1168 lbs 1550.00-1650.00; 1201 lbs 1650.00. Young 1002-1097 lbs 1700.00-1950.00; 1100-1157 lbs 1625.00-1950.00; 1233-1295 lbs 1500.00-2000.00; 1306-1357 lbs 1285.00-1500.00; 1442 lbs 1600.00. Solid Mouth 1181 lbs 1150.00; 1281 lbs 1350.00; 1333-1381 lbs 1525.00-1875.00; 1421-1499 lbs 1350.00-2075.00; 1518-1567 lbs 1350.00-1525.00. Short Solid 1308-1389 lbs 1000.00-1310.00; 1456-1491 lbs 1000.00-1550.00; 1623 lbs 1310.00. Broken Mouth 1196 lbs 1025.00; 1315-1394 lbs 985.00-1200.00; 1405-1497 lbs 1010.00-1175.00; 1530-1589 lbs 1110.00-1250.00; 1620-1657 lbs 1025.00-1335.00. Late 951 lbs 1350.00; 1063-1064 lbs 1160.00-1475.00; 1360-1468 lbs 1025.00-1100.00.
Replacement Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 2-7 year old 850-1250 lb second & third stage 90.00-100.00/950.00-1050.00, first stage open 75.00-85.00, 7-10 year old second & third stage 54.00-64.00/725.00-825.00 per head.
Cow-Calf Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2 3-7 year old 800-1200 lb cow w/100-200 lb calf 1100.00-1200.00, few to 1500.00, w/200-300 lb calf 1225.00-1325.00, 7-10 year old w/100-200 lb calf 875.00-975.00 per pair.
Alberta Beef Producers: Alberta direct cattle sales so far this week have seen light trade develop with the bulk of dressed sales marked at $250.00 delivered. Initial sales are steady to $3.00 higher than the previous week. Cattle that were bought this week were being scheduled for the second half of November delivery. Stronger basis levels did encourage producers to market cattle. Fed prices are now at their highest point since the beginning of July.
Canadian Cattle Prices:
Prices have been converted to U.S. $/CWT. Grades changed to approximate U.S. equivalents
Exchange Rate: Canadian dollar equivalent to $0.7794 U.S. dollars
Prices for the week ending November 3rd:
Herd Growth Slows
Ag Center Cattle Report
The signs were everywhere of a slowing in the growth of the national beef cattle herd. Cow slaughter is up – running 15-20% above last year. Those cows held back for one more calf, during the period of record high calf prices, are now being culled from the herd. Rational exuberance is gone and breeders are back making economic decisions regarding herd sizes based on current conditions and inputs.
The breeder is at the start of the beef production cycle and ultimately either suffers the pressures of overproduction of benefits of underproduction. The other participants in the beef chain are all middle operators, buying and selling on margins that sometimes exists and sometimes are lacking. When prices fall, everything is pushed back to the breeder.
While calf prices are well under the highs of three years ago, they are seeking a sustainable level for stable production and herd size. Confirming the slowing in herd grow is the number of heifers being placed on feed in the nation’s feedlots. Double digit increases over prior year have been posted for the past year and now heifers as a percentage of total slaughter numbers is showing large increases. This is positive for fed cattle prices and average carcass weights because heifers are marketed at lower out weights. Steers remain almost 2/3 of the daily fed slaughter.
A weighted average annual fed cattle price in the $120s would have a stabilizing influence on the size of the national cow herd. This would allow yearlings to sell in the $150s and calves in the $170s giving each sector of the beef production cycle reasonable pricing. Genetics will always push weaning weights higher helping breeders, but breeders also must fight higher inputs costs on other fronts such as medicine costs, interest rates and feed costs not including rising cost of cattle care.
Weather and feed cost always play the role of outside uncontrollable influences on both price and production levels. Corn at $3.50/bushel will eventually discourage corn production and prices will rise. Regional drought pockets like the Dakotas, Wyoming and Montana will always exist. This simply means herd numbers will forever be dynamic depending on many factors of that often are beyond our control.
USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates
LIVESTOCK & POULTRY: The forecast for 2017 total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as lower beef, pork, and turkey production more than offsets higher broiler production. Beef production is reduced from the previous month on a slower expected marketing pace for fed cattle in the fourth quarter and lighter carcass
weights. The pork production forecast is reduced as lower expected fourth-quarter commercial hog slaughter more than offsets slightly heavier carcass weights. The broiler production forecast is raised on third-quarter slaughter data, but no change is made to the fourth-quarter forecast. The turkey forecast is reduced slightly on lower than expected thirdquarter slaughter data; no change is made to the fourth quarter forecast.
For 2018, the total red meat and poultry forecast is raised from the previous month as higher expected beef and pork production more than offsets lower turkey production. Beef production is raised from last month as higher expected placements in the latter part of 2017 and first-half 2018 are expected to support higher marketings and fed cattle slaughter in 2018. However, carcass weights are expected to be slightly lower. Pork production is raised from last month on higher expected first-quarter slaughter and slightly heavier carcass weights; no changes are made to outlying quarters. The 2018 broiler production forecast is unchanged from the previous month. Turkey production forecasts are lowered on weakness in prices which will dampen expansion in 2018.
The beef import forecast for 2017 is raised from the previous month, but no changes are made to the 2018 beef import forecasts. Beef export forecasts for 2017 and 2018 are raised from the previous month on expected strong global demand for U.S. beef. For 2017, the pork import forecast was reduced fractionally on recent third-quarter trade data, but no change is made to the outlying pork import forecasts. The 2017 and 2018 pork export forecasts are lowered from the previous month on slower-than-expected export demand in the third quarter which will carry forward into 2018. Both 2017 and 2018 broiler export forecasts are reduced from the previous month on an expected slower pace in global demand. The annual turkey import forecast is reduced for 2017, while the export forecast is
raised. No changes are made to 2018 turkey trade forecasts.
Cattle prices are raised for 2017 and first-half 2018. The hog price forecast is unchanged for 2017, but the first-quarter 2018 hog price forecast is reduced on larger slaughter hog availability. However, the annual hog price forecast remains unchanged. The 2017 and 2018 broiler price forecasts remain unchanged from the previous month. Turkey price forecasts are lowered for both 2017 and 2018 reflecting current price weakness.
WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2017/18 ending stocks are lowered 25 million bushels due to increased exports. Recent sales to Iraq support a higher export projection with Hard Red Winter accounting for the entire increase. The latest NASS Flour Millings Products report, issued November 1, indicated only a modest increase for food use for 2016/17 and supported the current projection of 950 million bushels for 2017/18. Ending stocks are projected at 935 million bushels, down 246 million from the previous year but still above the 5-year-average. The season-average farm price is unchanged at a midpoint of $4.60. Global 2017/18 wheat supplies are down fractionally with decreased beginning stocks but increased production. Global production is raised 0.8 million tons led by a 1.0-million-ton increase for Russia and a 0.5-million-ton increase for the EU on updated harvest results. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton decrease for Pakistan. Exports are raised 0.6 million tons with the United States and Russia up 0.7 million, and 0.5 million, respectively. Australia exports are lowered 0.5 million. Global use is raised fractionally this month. With supplies decreasing and total use increasing, ending stocks are lowered 0.6 million tons but remain
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, increased feed and residual use and exports, and greater ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.578 billion bushels, up 298 million from last month on a record-high yield. Feed and residual use is raised 75 million bushels based on a larger crop. Exports are raised 75 million bushels, reflecting expectations of improved U.S. competitiveness, reduced exports for Ukraine, and increased demand from Mexico based on sharply lower sorghum production prospects. With supply rising faster than use, corn ending stocks are up 147 million bushels from last month. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged with a midpoint of $3.20 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2017/18 is forecast 3.2 million tons higher to 1,322.6 million. The 2017/18 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, reduced consumption, and smaller stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast lower mostly reflecting reductions for Ukraine, Russia, and Vietnam that are only partially
offset by an increase for the European Union. The projected corn yields for Russia and Ukraine are reduced based on reported harvest results to date. Sorghum production in Mexico is lowered based on area indications from the government and lower forecast yields as a result of the prevalence of the sugarcane aphid.
Corn exports are lowered for Ukraine but raised for the United States. Imports are raised for Mexico and Canada, but lowered for South Korea. China’s barley imports are raised reflecting expectations of continued demand for imported feedstuffs. Foreign corn ending stocks are down from last month, mostly reflecting declines for China, Vietnam, Canada, and Ukraine that more than offset increases for the EU and Argentina. Global corn stocks, at 203.9 million tons, are up 2.9 million from last month.
Cattle Exported to Canada Must Have RFID Tags
Teresa Clark -- The Fence Post
Breeding cattle being exported into Canada will sport a new ear tag with radio frequency capabilities starting Feb. 1, 2018. A new ruling issued by the Canadian Food Inspection Agency will require U.S. cattlemen exporting dairy or beef breeding cattle into the country to identify these animals with an NAIS-compliant 840 Radio Frequency tag, and a tattoo. These tags will be mandatory, beginning Feb. 1, 2018.
The 840 AIN ear tags with Radio Frequency Identification technology will replace the metal USDA tags previously used to identify breeding cattle from the U.S. "Previously, all breeding cattle exported to Canada were identified with both a USDA metal ear tag and a USA tattoo," according to Donna Karlsons, who is a public affairs specialist with USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.
The new program will eliminate duplicity, Karlsons said. "All cattle in Canada have been required to be identified with approved RFID tags since 2010," she said. "For U.S. exporters of breeding cattle, this will eliminate the need for re-tagging animals after their arrival in Canada."
Because it is a Canadian regulation, it will be up to their government to enforce it, Karlsons said. "If breeding cattle arrive at the border without RFID tags on or after Feb. 1, 2018, the Canadian government will deny entry in Canada."
For cattle breeders who sell breeding stock to Canadian buyers, Karlsons said they should update themselves on the new regulations. "We always recommend that breeders who have international buyers at their sales be aware of export requirements that other countries may have, including identification requirements, along with other animal health requirements such as specific tests or certification," she said.
Even breeding cattle traveling to the country for shows need to be tagged under this new system. "All breeding cattle that enter Canada, for whatever reason, must meet Canada's animal health import requirements, including identification requirements," she said.
The RFID transponder is encased in the visual tag. The tag must have a 15 digit AIN number printed on the part of the tag containing the transponder, and the number must start with 840. These tags are considered official USDA ear tags, are tamper-proof, and designed for one-time use.
According to the USDA/APHIS website, the official ear tag must also have the text "unlawful to remove" printed on the other piece of the ear tag. It is recommended the AIN RFID ear tags be placed in the left ear, so they don't interfere with the tattoo typically placed in the right ear.
The website also warns producers against selling, loaning or giving these preprinted tags they have purchased to other producers, since all AIN tags are recorded as being distributed to each producer using the location identification system used by their state.
This requirement is the next step in a process designed to better monitor brucellosis testing. On Sept. 1, 2017, Canada implemented a new regulation requiring U.S. cattlemen to test their breeding cattle for brucellosis using the FPA test, the Buffered Acidified Plate Antigen test, or the Competitive Elisa test. The Standard Tube Test and the Standard Plate Test are no longer acceptable methods of testing for brucellosis, and will no longer be accepted by the CFIA.
USDA National Retail Beef Report:
Advertised Prices for Beef at Major Retail Supermarket Outlets
This week in Beef Retail, Chuck Roast charted a significant increase in prevalence as cooler weather has settled in around most of the country and consumers are trading in their BBQ grills for Crockpots. Cuts from the Chuck, Rib and Ground beef items saw more ads space while cuts from the Round, Loin, and Brisket saw less on limited reporting week.
Beef Exports Exceed $600 Million for 4th Month
Although lower than the previous month, September beef export volume improved 2 percent from a year ago to 103,552 mt. Export value topped $600 million for the fourth consecutive month at $616.9 million, up 16 percent from a year ago. January-September volume was 926,985 mt, up 9 percent from the first three quarters of 2016, while export value was $5.27 billion – up 16 percent year-over-year and 2 percent above of the record pace established in 2014.
Beef exports accounted for 12.5 percent of total production in September, down one percentage point from a year ago, but the percentage of muscle cuts exported increased from 10.2 percent last year to 10.4 percent. For January through September, beef exports accounted 12.8 percent of total production (down from 13.2 percent) and 10.1 percent for muscle cuts (steady with last year).
September beef export value averaged $289.14 per head of fed slaughter, up 13 percent from a year ago. January-September export value averaged $277.31 per head, up 10 percent.
Photo of the Week:
"Shootin' the Bull" Weekly Analysis:
In my opinion, it has been perceived for several weeks now that the rising futures markets were influencing the cash trade. This week, the packer pulled the rug out from underneath the futures market by trading on Tuesday and at a dollar lower. This evaporated any influence the futures may have produced through the remainder of the week and the extent of being caught off guard brought December futures down $4.60 from Tuesday's close. Add the $3.00 that came off the top just prior, and the move down has been a little over $7.00. Interesting that the impact was muted on all the back months until Thursday and Friday. From the information gathered this week concerning further distribution channels formed through Chinese retail giant JD.com and the Montana Stock Growers Association, it appears the markets are drawing dividing lines. Those lines are between front end elevated inventory and now the loss of momentum, and the back end believing demand will remain, and potentially elevate at a time when inventory could be strained. The futures markets began reflecting this when the 1.2 billion dollar deal was struck this week.
The spreads have actively worked in a bear fashion as front months traded lower the most. It has worked with fats and feeder spreads as well. Those have been stronger feeder prices against weaker fat prices. This factor is anticipated to stay with us for some time. While the front end will have to deal with the holidays, beyond the first of the year, I would anticipate fat prices to sustain the current elevated price with advancements as supply & demand factors unfold. The loss of momentum helped to clarify the wave count as well. It didn't change anything on the major wave count that remains in a major wave 3. What makes it really tough though is the separation between contract months. Variances within fat cattle months makes the intermediate and minor wave counts differ. Believing demand will continue leads me to stay with the more friendly wave count in the back months and stick with the same strategy. That being, if you need to market inventory, then do so. However, do not be short the market just for the sake of being short.
Two years ago, the US came out of quantitative easing and began raising interest rates. All but a few commodities bottomed early in 2016 and made some type of move off the bottom. By early 2017, the only markets that persistently remained low have been wheat and corn. The healing of the economy increased disposable income and therefore spurred greater discretionary spending. Today, we see energy prices at new highs for the year, metals and meats at elevated prices and even soybeans elevated from previous lows. The increase in demand is perceived to have begun to slow the price decline due to gluts.
Two weeks ago, the ECB began reversing their quantitative easing actions. Potentially this signals a healing time frame in Europe. Were Europeans to begin enjoying an increase in disposable income, and therefore increase discretionary spending, commodity prices in 2018 could move another tier higher on the price scale. I am unsure why so many are anticipating an economic down turn in the US with only approximately only 18 months of improved economic environment. It could improve for years. So, don't be so quick to think that commodity prices will move lower when the European continent is just now righting its ship out of the negative interest rate spiral. Also, I would be careful attempting to equate the stock markets value to economic performance. Yes, it does provide some sense of security to see ones investment or retirement portfolio at the top, but economic vitality is not always accompanied by a roaring stock market.
Feeder cattle are anticipated to have the most to gain. While this year has been a fat cattle cash led rally, that may switch some with the current events. Fats may struggle just a little while longer to get through the current glut. However, going forward, the likelihood of having significant increases of inventory in 2018 is diminishing. As hard of a pull as demand has had, I can see where some holes may begin to appear where there just aren't quite as many at a specific weight range as once thought. Remember too that with exports, the inventory will have to be sewn up quicker as exports are different than domestic trade. A truck or train can be delayed or rerouted to meet a demand, even if a day or two late. However, when the ship leaves on a specific date at a specific time, there is no room for error.
All year long more development has taken place towards creating infrastructure to move US beef across the sea. These lines of distribution are costly and not created for a one time ordeal. So, while many are focused on the present, and some supply burden potential, I recommend focusing on sourcing your inventory for next year and conduct business as usual. Feed yards are urged to be taking advantage of this weeks price decline. It hasn't been much, but would potentially make buying calls a little easier with the tail winds. Recall the intermediate wave 3 target is at $172.00 and were major wave 3 projections to be met above $190.00, call options would help mitigate the price advance. The positive basis will help to as there remains an approximate $3.00 to $4.00 positive basis to the spring months.
Lastly, the grains got pummeled again as USDA just keeps increasing yield. The good part of this is that the extent for which they raised the last yield on corn suggests they may not be able to raise it any more. Therefore, we know what the crop size is now and the work to chew through it begins. That may not be as difficult with increases seen in energy usage and livestock feed. I'd like to thank Marlin Bohling, John Jenkins and RFD-TV for inviting me to comment on Monday morning's Ag Day show. This has been a great experience and the folks there are sincere in providing quality information.
Christopher B. Swift is a commodity broker and consultant with Swift Trading Company in Nashville, TN. Mr. Swift authors the daily commentaries "mid day cattle comment" and "Shootin' the Bull" commentary found on his website @ www.shootinthebull.com
An investment in futures contracts is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of their margin deposits. You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
USDA Disagrees With WHO Antibiotics Guidelines
USDA’s chief scientist came out with a strong statement against the World Health Organization’s (WHO) recommendations issued this week critical of current uses antibiotics in raising food animals.
“The WHO guidelines are not in alignment with U.S. policy and are not supported by sound science. The recommendations erroneously conflate disease prevention with growth promotion in animals," USDA Acting Chief Scientist Chavonda Jacobs-Young said in a statement.
On Tuesday, the WHO recommended that farmers and the food industry stop using antibiotics routinely to promote growth and prevent disease in healthy animals.
“The WHO previously requested that the standards for on-farm antibiotic use in animals be updated through a transparent, consensus, science-based process of CODEX. However, before the first meeting of the CODEX was held, the WHO released these guidelines, which according to language in the guidelines are based on ‘low-quality evidence,’ and in some cases, ‘very low-quality evidence,'" said Jacobs-Young.
“Under current Food and Drug Administration (FDA) policy, medically important antibiotics should not be used for growth promotion in animals. In the U.S., the FDA allows for the use of antimicrobial drugs in treating, controlling and preventing disease in food-producing animals under the professional oversight of licensed veterinarians. While the WHO guidelines acknowledge the role of veterinarians, they would also impose unnecessary and unrealistic constraints on their professional judgment," Jacobs-Young added.
She said USDA agrees, however, that more data is needed to assess progress on antimicrobial use and resistance, as well as continued development of alternative therapies for the treatment, control and prevention of disease in animals.
U.S. Dollar - 6 Month Chart:
Over the last 5 years, an average of around 10% of U.S. beef production has been exported, making exports an extremely important factor affecting beef and cattle prices. A strong dollar depresses export demand.
Choice Boxed Beef Cutout, Slaughter, & Feeder Steers:
Boxed beef cutout values higher on Choice and sharply lower on Select on light to moderate demand and offerings. Select chuck, round, and loin cuts steady to weak while rib cuts sharply lower. Choice rib and round cuts firm to higher while chuck and loin cuts steady to weak. Beef trimmings were not fully established.
Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter through Thursday was 464,000 head, 3,000 fewer than the previous week and 2,000 head above the same week last year. The FAS reported export sales of 16,773 MT for 2017 during the week of 11/2, down 14.1% from last year.
Trade data reported by the USDA shows September beef exports of 242.954 million pounds. That was down 7.9% from August, but 13.2% larger than last year and a record for the month of September.
The average value of hide and offal for the five days ending Thu, Nov 09, 2017 was estimated at 10.13 per cwt, up 0.08 from last week and down -1.73 from last year.
R-CALF USA Files Summary Judgment Brief in COOL Case
Spokane, Wash. – Last week, co-plaintiffs R-CALF USA and the Cattle Producers of Washington (CPoW) filed a brief for summary judgement in their country-of-origin labeling (COOL) case in the federal district court located in Spokane, Wash. The groups seek to reinstate that portion of the recently repealed COOL law that required beef and pork imported from foreign countries to retain their origin labels all the way to the consumer.
The brief alleges that the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is knowingly violating U.S. law by not requiring meatpackers to carry forward the country-of-origin labels that are on the packages and containers when meat is imported, so that origin information is passed along to consumers rather than stripped off the products.
It alleges the USDA is allowing meatpackers to remove origin labels even after the agency itself, its attorneys, and the Congressional Research Service have acknowledged that the USDA's regulations are in conflict with U.S. law.
The groups further state that rather than comply with the law, the USDA allows multinational meatpackers to reclassify foreign meat as a domestic product even if all the meatpackers do is unwrap and rewrap the imported product.
They state the USDA then allows the repackaged foreign product to be labeled as a 'Product of the U.S.A.'
"Accordingly, the packers, who control nearly the entire market, only compensate domestic producers based on what they would pay for foreign meat, produced free from the United States' food safety, production and labor laws," the groups state.
They argue the USDA is aiding multinational meatpackers while undermining the viability of domestic ranchers.
The groups explain that before Congress' repeal, this problem was resolved because the COOL law required labels on imported meat to be retained 'through retail sale.' Consequently, companies could no longer pass off imported meat as domestic and they had to compensate domestic producers at a premium rate for their premium domestic product.
The brief asserts that R-CALF USA and CPoW's members receive increased compensation for their cattle when they can market it as fully produced in the United States because of the high consumer demand for domestically produced beef.
And, it states, that when Congress repealed COOL, the meatpackers began paying domestic producers at the rate of the lowest common denominator of beef – what they pay for foreign meat.
The groups' members have been told by multinational meatpackers that if COOL returns, the packers would again have to pay a premium for domestic cattle.
Put simply, the groups argue the USDA is unlawfully undermining their market for domestic cattle and their lawsuit is needed because the proper enforcement of labeling requirements on imported beef is central to domestic ranchers' livelihood.
Attorneys representing the ranch groups include David S. Muraskin, a Food Safety and Health Attorney at Public Justice; Beth E. Terrell and Blythe H. Chandler of Terrell Marshall Law Group; and J. Dudley Butler of Butler Farm & Ranch Law Group, PLLC.
Oklahoma Beef Checkoff Referendum Fails
High Plains Journal
The Oklahoma Department of Agriculture announced the results of the Oklahoma Beef Checkoff Referendum Nov. 9. Oklahoma Secretary of Agriculture Jim Reese reported the checkoff failed with a vote of 1,998 in favor to 2,506 against.
The announcement came following the official auditor’s report of the vote.
The Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association released a statement following the announcement.
“This is an unfortunate loss for the beef industry here in Oklahoma,” said Michael Kelsey, Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association executive vice president. “Investing in a state-level beef checkoff would have greatly increased the opportunities to market, promote and educate consumers about beef and beef producers. We ran a good campaign that worked hard to reach out and educate beef producers, but ultimately we were defeated today by the same out-of- state activists that defeated State Question 777 last fall.”
The Organization for Competitive Markets (with ties to the Humane Society of the United States) along with R-CALF USA had led the opposition to the referendum. In a release, the organizations proclaimed victory.
"We were proud to stand with our Oklahoma members to ensure justice was carried out during this election,” said Bill Bullard, CEO for R-CALF USA. "It is good to know that in America, if you stand up for what is right you can still win."
Currently, members of R-CALF USA and OCM have applied with the Oklahoma Supreme Court to turn over the state beef checkoff. Since the referendum failed, the issue is moot and Brian Ted Jones, attorney for the plaintiffs, will be dismissing the case. In a statement he said, "Unfortunately having to dismiss the case leaves serious constitutional questions about the statute and the process left unanswered."
Feeder Steers/Corn Correlation:
Historically, the value of 25 bushels of corn is approximately equal to the price per cwt. for feeder steers.
Slaughter Cows & Bulls:
Slaughter cows and bulls sold steady to 2.00 higher. Demand good in the South Central region as hunting season has begun and this takes precedence over sending cows to market cows. Numbers are lighter at
Cutter Cow Carcass Cut-Out Value Thursday was 170.14 up .29 from last Friday.
Weight Colorado Oklahoma Alabama
Breakers 1100-1600 58.00-61.75 53.00-57.00 48.00-52.50
Boners 1000-1450 57.00-61.50 55.00-59.00 50.00-55.00
Lean 1000-1300 55.00-58.00 53.00-57.00 45.00-49.00
Bulls 1300-2500 80.00-83.50 77.00-80.00 69.00-73.00
# Head Week Ago Year Ago YTD Year Ago
National 8,136 8,472 8,970 45,152 47,019
S Central 2,581 2,662 2,635 14,748 12,563
N Central 659 792 916 2,464 3,886
East 2,565 2,259 2,811 13,225 13,465
West 1,062 1,081 824 6,218 8,892
Midwest 1,269 1,678 1,784 8,497 8,213
Est. Weekly Meat Production Under Federal Inspection:
Total red meat production under Federal inspection for the week ending Saturday, November 11, 2017 was estimated at 1044.4 million lbs. according to the U.S.Department of Agriculture's Marketing Service.
This was 0.3 percent lower than a week ago and 0.3 percent higher than a year ago. Cumulative meat production for the year to date was 3.1 percent higher compared to the previous year.
Weekly Hay Reports: "Click" on links for detailed report
Washington - Oregon (Columbia Basin)
Weekly Feedstuffs Market Review:
The USDA reports feed ingredient prices for the week ending November 7, 2017 were mixed.
Soybean Meal was mixed, 7.00 lower to 3.80 higher, mostly 3.70 higher. Cottonseed Meal was steady to 5.00 lower. Canola Meal was mixed, 1.30 lower to 13.70 higher. Linseed Meal was steady to 10.00 lower. Sunflower Meal was steady.
Whole Cottonseed was steady to 10.00 lower.
Crude Soybean Oil was 27 to 129 points higher, mostly 27 to 52 points higher. Crude Corn Oil was 5 points lower.
Ruminant Meat and Bone Meal was mixed, 30.00 lower to 20.00 higher, mostly steady. Ruminant Blood Meal was steady to 25.00 lower. Feather Meal was mixed, 5.00 lower to 15.00 higher. Menhaden Fishmeal was 5.00 to 50.00 higher.
Corn Hominy was steady to 10.00 higher, mostly steady. Corn Gluten Feed was steady to 3.00 lower. Corn Gluten Meal was steady to 28.00 higher, mostly steady.
Distillers Dried Grain was mixed, 5.00 lower to 10.00 higher.
Wheat Middlings were mixed, 15.00 lower to 10.00 higher. Wheat millrun was steady to 2.00 lower.
5 Year Bullish/Bearish Consensus Charts:
The theory behind the "Bullish/Bearish Consensus" indicator is when the public reaches a consensus, they are usually wrong:
They get too bullish after prices have risen and too bearish after they have already fallen.
Because of this tendency, there are often extremes in opinion right before major changes in trend:
When the public reaches a bullish extreme, i.e., a great majority thinks prices will keep rising, then prices often decline instead.
And when they become too bearish, then prices tend to rise.
So when Public Opinion moves above the red dotted linein the chart, it means that compared to other readings over the past year, you're seeing excessive optimism. You also want to look at the absolute level of Opinion, too - if it's at 90%, then there's no question we're seeing an historic level of bullish opinion. Watch for readings above 80% (or especially 90%) to spot those dangerous times when the public is overly enthusiastic about a commodity.
Conversely, when Public Opinion moves below the green dotted line, then the public is excessively pessimistic about the commodity's prospects for further gains compared to their opinion over the past year. Looking for absolute readings under 20% (or especially 10%) often indicates an upturn in the market.
Bullish/Bearish Consensus: Cattle
Bullish/Bearish Consensus: Corn.
Stock Markets & Economic News:
Stocks recorded modest losses, breaking a streak of eight weekly gains for the large-cap indexes. Fading hopes for tax reform took an especially large toll on small-caps, which generally stand to gain more from faster U.S. growth and lower tax rates because of their domestic focus. Financials also underperformed as tax cut hopes diminished. As investors grew more defensive, they favored consumer staples stocks, which saw good gains for the week. Energy stocks were especially strong at the start of the week, after oil prices rose in response to the arrests of numerous Saudi Arabian officials and members of the royal family over the previous weekend. Oil prices fell back a bit later in the week, however, partly due to news of a rise in U.S. oil inventories.
The economic calendar was particularly light during the week, leaving investors to focus on President Trump’s trip to Asia and efforts in Congress to pass tax reform, in particular. Investors seemed to grow more dubious about the prospects for tax reform as the week progressed, with many of the new revenue sources proposed by House leaders to offset steep cuts in the corporate tax rate proving highly controversial. Worries seemed to deepen Thursday, after Senate Republicans released a draft of their own plan, which delayed the corporate rate cut until 2019. The large-cap indexes declined by roughly 1% in morning trading Thursday before recovering much of their losses, but the negative sentiment appeared to carry over into early trading Friday.
Chinese eCommerce Giant Makes Deal for Montana Beef
A Chinese eCommerce giant, JD.com, has struck a $300 million beef deal with the Montana Stockgrowers Association, including $100 million for a new slaughterhouse.
JD.com signed the agreement with Montana's largest livestock organization in mid-October, but kept it under wraps until President Donald Trump's visit Wednesday to China.
Stockgrower's Executive Vice President Errol Rice and Miles City Rancher Fred Wacker were in Beijing for the signing ceremony.
Ranchers will supply $200 million worth of Montana-sourced beef to JD.com starting in January and continuing through 2020. Construction on a packing plant is expected to start next spring, according to the terms in the October memorandum of agreement.
The location for the slaughterhouse hasn't been announced.
The deal stems from a Sept. 9 meeting with in Maudlow arranged by U.S. Sen Steve Daines, R-Mont.
Wacker, of Miles City, would like to see Montana break away from the processing herd by butchering its own beef and selling it under the Montana brand.
Wacker was all ears as China's Ambassador to the United States, Cui Tiankai, suggested that acquiring Chinese investors would give Montana beef a leg up in China.
"We have the land, we have the cattle, we have the quality, we have the water," Wacker said. "We have the interest in putting in a major processing plant here, and we also have a very high-quality product."
Montana's agriculture community is no stranger to foreign investment. Most of the grain elevators in the state are owned by Japanese companies determined to secure supply and control quality of U.S. wheat.
The Chinese are already investing in Montana, to the tune of $17 million, said China's Ambassador to the United States, Cui Tiankai.
Beijing-based Goldwind, the world's second-largest manufacturer of wind turbines, built a 14-turbine wind farm near Shawmut in 2012. The turbines are made in China. The wind farm will supply electricity to NorthWestern Energy into the 2030s.
"When export of Montana beef to China is more or less stabilized, and channels are established, we could find your main buyers in China, Chinese companies that import a lot of Montana beef," Cui said. "And maybe with the help of some Chinese banks, like China Bank in New York, they could invest in the infrastructure here, insure a stable and long-lasting supply."
Wacker, who raises antibiotic-free, implant-free Angus cattle for Whole Foods, broached the subject of a rare, Montana-specific beef sale to China, which reopened its markets to U.S. beef after a 13-year ban stemming from a 2003 Washington state case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy, better known as mad cow disease.
Cui spoke frankly at the Maudlow meeting about what it will take to sell Montana beef in China, the world's second-largest beef consuming nation. Cui indicated that investment by a Chinese business in Montana beef development would move things along.
Ranchers have watched with their noses pressed up against the glass as Chinese restaurants and supermarkets served up increasing amounts of beef from other countries. China imported 825,000 tons of beef in 2016.
It’s been 33 years since Montana had a meatpacking plant of significant size. The last, Pierce Packing Co., of Billings tore a 500-jobs-lost hole in the Billings economy when it closed in 1984. Pierce was a regional giant, but the consolidation in the U.S. meatpacking industry pushed the 50-year-old company to extinction.
"Click Here" to view a Slide Show of Drought Monitor maps for the last 12 weeks
Looking Ahead:During the upcoming 5-day period (November 9-13), another Pacific storm takes aim on the Northwest (from northern California northward), with the greatest totals (4-8 inches) expected along the immediate coast, in the Cascades, and the northern Sierra Nevada, with lesser amounts (1-2 inches) in the northern Rockies. Light to moderate rain (1-1.5 inches) is expected in a narrow band from central Texas eastward to coastal Georgia and the Carolinas, along the far western Gulf Coast, and in the northern Great Lakes region. It should be dry in the Southwest, Great Basin, and northern and central Plains, with only light amounts (less than 0.5 inches) elsewhere. Temperatures should average above normal in the Southwest, Great Basin, and Rockies, and near to below-normal in the eastern half of the Nation.
During the 6-10 day period (November 14-18), odds favor above-median precipitation in the Northwest, northern Alaska, and the Great Lakes region while sub-median precipitation is likely in southern California, the Plains, and the Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast States. The chances for above-normal temperatures are likely in the middle third of the lower 48 States, especially in the Southwest and southern Plains, with odds tilted toward below-normal readings limited to most of Alaska and the Pacific Northwest Coast.
Surge in Cash Cattle & Cattle Futures
Cattle jumped up last week in the cash market and across all the futures market months for the balance of this year and throughout 2018. Both futures markets and current livestock price levels are dramatically different than a year ago.
Year-over-year, livestock futures market prices are dramatically higher. The December 2017 Live Cattle contract last weak was up $21.25 per cwt. compared to 2015’s. and the April contract for next year was up $22.69. Feeder Cattle futures in 2018 for the March and August contracts last week were $40.62 and $42.10 above a year ago, respectively.
Last year at this time, futures markets, especially for cattle, were signaling to meat buyers for retail stores and restaurants that prices would remain rather low and there appeared to be opportunities to buy out-front for features and special promotions. Also, a year ago, after struggling with high feeder cattle prices for many months, cattle feeders began to see much better prospects for profits on animals being placed on-feed, even with languishing Live Cattle futures prices.
Given the fundamental price structures and the levels today, are cattle prices likely to match the huge prices increases posted from early-November 2016 into the spring months of 2017? For key contract months, let’s look back at that timeframe for some context. One year ago (week ending November 4, 2016), the April 2017 Live Cattle contract average was $105.02 per cwt. At contract expiration, that contract had surged to $132.89. From early-November 2016 to contract expiration for the March 2017 Feeder Cattle contract the price increased from $115.63 per cwt. to $132.65.
Futures markets are pointing to higher cattle and hog prices than a year earlier. Looking just at prices in recent weeks as a starting point, 2018 likely will not unfold like 2017.
Feedyard Closeouts: Profit/(Loss)
Closeout projections are for cattle placed on feed by a cattle owner at a commercial feedyard and not for cattle owned by a feedyard and fed at cost or a farmer/feeder utilizing his own feed.
Typical closeout for un-hedged steers sold this week:
Placed On Feed 165 days ago = May 29th
P/(L) based on the futures when placed on feed: (12.54)
Cost of 750 lb. steer delivered @ $145.22 per cwt: $1,089.15
Feed Cost for 600 lbs. @ $76.56 per cwt: $459.36
Interest @ Prime + 2% on cattle cost for 165 days: $28.31
Interest @ Prime + 2% of the feed cost for 165 days: $5.97
Total Cost & Expense: $1,582.79
Sale proceeds: 1,350 lb. steer @ $124.00 per cwt: $1,674.00
This week's Profit/(Loss) per head: $91.21
Profit/(Loss) per head for previous week: $115.51
Change from previous week: -$24.30
Sale price necessary to breakeven: $117.24
Projected closeout for steers placed on feed this week:
Projected Sale Date @ 165 days on feed = May 1st
Cost of 750 lb. steer delivered @ $158.79 per cwt: $1,190.93
Feed Cost for 600 lbs. @ $71.85 per cwt: $431.10
Interest @ Prime + 2% on cattle cost for 165 days: $32.30
Interest @ Prime + 2% of the feed cost for 165 days: $5.85
Total Cost & Expense: $1,660.17
Sale proceeds: June Futures @ $127.10 per cwt: $1,715.85
This week's Profit/(Loss) per head: $55.68
Profit/(Loss) per head for previous week: $91.73
Change from previous week: -$36.05
Sale price necessary to breakeven: $122.98
Slaughter Cattle: Friday in the Texas Panhandle and Colorado trading has been at a standstill. In Kansas, Nebraska and Western Cornbelt trading has been limited on light demand. Not enough cash trades for a full market trend. The last fully reported market in the Southern and Northern Plains was on Wednesday. In the Southern Plains and Colorado live cash trades were at 124.00. In Nebraska live cash trades were from 122.00-124.00 and dressed trades at mostly 192.00. In the Western Cornbelt the last reported market was on Thursday with live cash trades from 120.00 to 122.00 and dressed cash trades were from 190.00 to 192.00, a light test was noted for both live and dressed.
Negotiated Sales: Confirmed: 10,307 Week Ago: 12,938 Year Ago: 2,375
Formula Purchases: Net - Dressed
Head count priced today: 13,800
Weighted avg weight: 872.00
Weighted avg net price: 196.25
The FCE On-Line Auction offered 1,191 head total with 465 head sold @ $124 per cwt.
Livestock Slaughter under Federal Inspection:
CATTLE CALVES HOGS SHEEP
Friday (est) 112,000 2,000 458,000 7,000
Week ago (est) 112,000 2,000 454,000 7,000
Year ago (act) 104,000 3,000 405,000 4,000
Week to date (est) 576,000 10,000 2,304,000 38,000
Last Week (est) 579,000 10,000 2,285,000 38,000
Last Year (act) 566,000 11,000 2,180,000 39,000
Saturday (est) 47,000 0 191,000 1,000
Week ago (est) 63,000 0 162,000 0
Year ago (act) 49,000 0 278,000 0
Week to date (est) 623,000 10,000 2,495,000 39,000
Last Week (est) 642,000 10,000 2,447,000 38,000
Last Year* (act) 615,000 11,000 2,458,000 39,000
2017 YTD 27,461,000 432,000 103,643,000 1,658,000
2016 *YTD 26,016,000 404,000 100,960,000 1,730,000
Percent change 5.6% 6.9% 2.7% -4.2%
Fed Cattle Market... On the Run
Cassie Fish -- cassandrafish.com
The cattle feeders started the momentum change earlier this week and CME live cattle futures have followed ever since. Most active Feb LC, standing with 131,063 open contracts, is failing fast. Having made an all-time high this week and taken out last week’s lows, a weekly key reversal has been made. The well-known monster long fund position in cattle futures now enters as a potential ticking time bomb, if and when the decline in futures continues.
Amazing most cattle traders is Jun LC, within a buck of lead option Dec LC, which makes zero sense fundamentally, but is a great example of how money flow matters most. Jun LC started this morning par with this week’s weakest cash trades, despite the fact that the largest fed cattle supply in 2018 will begin to surface then.
It is longer-term bearish market psychology that has dominated this week. Nothing fundamentally has really changed in the broader scope. In fact, October actual fed slaughter data has come in higher than estimated, just one more fact that the front-end market-ready cattle supplies are current and the rally in cash prices that occurred in November was the result of packers’ desire to continue to kill big coupled with that currentness.
However, paying up for cattle 2 weeks in a row did get the packer in better inventory shape and allowed leverage to swing back in his favor, perhaps even more dramatically than anyone realized Monday morning.
But this is all yesterday’s news and it’s evident that fear of what is to come post the Q4 high in cash cattle and cutout values is greater than all else.
Fed cattle kill forecasts for the remainder of 2017 show kills, based on supply data ought to drop below 495k head for the first time since April and stay below 490k until April 2018. The fed kill has been at 495k per week or higher since late April. It is also accurate that fed cattle supplies will be larger than last year from mid-December onward, but not dramatically so until Q2.
It is early for the Q4 rally to be over seasonally and another run-up in prices could occur before December, but most aren’t counting on it now
Weekly Corn Crop Condition Report:
National Grain Summary:
Compared to last week, cash bids for corn and soybeans were mixed, with wheat trading mostly higher and sorghum trading mostly lower. The next round of WASDE reports were released yesterday giving traders an updated look at yield and crop estimates as of November 9th. This years corn crop projections increased to a potential record breaking 14.578 billion bushels, and US ending corn stocks were increased from 2.340 to 2.487 billion bushels. These are both bearish projections for the corn market which closed 6 3/4 cents lower for the December contract yesterday. Soybean projections were mostly neutral with new estimates putting US ending stocks 5 million bushels lower at 425 million bushels, and a slightly lower crop estimate of 4.425 billion bushels. Though soybean projections were mostly flat, bearish influnce from the corn market pressured soybeans to close 13 1/2 cents lower on the January contract. The wheat market did gain some support yesterday from a decrease in US ending stocks from 960 million bushels to 935 million bushels, influenced by an increase in wheat export estimates. Last week's export sales totaled 93.1 million bushels of corn, 42.6 million bushels of soybeans and 28.7 million bushels of wheat, bearish figures for all three commodities. Wheat was higher, from 5 to 35 cents higher. Corn was mixed, from 13 cents lower to 8 cents higher. Sorghum was 16 cents lower. Soybeans were mixed from 24 cents lower to 17 1/4 cents higher.
Corn futures closed the day with gains of 1 to 2 cents, as Dec lost 1.36% on the week with the help of Thursday’s report. The USDA corn yield estimate has moved +5.9 bpa since the August report. NE (-2) and MI (-1) were the only major producing states that showed a reduction in yield in November’s report. Total export commitments are now 21.67% lower than this time last year, gaining 5.19% over the last week. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that the Argentina corn crop is 35% planted, up slightly over last week’s 33.9%. The CFTC Commitment of Traders report will be delayed until Monday, in observance of Veteran’s day on Saturday.
Wheat futures were mostly 2 – 5 cents higher in the KC and CBT contracts today, as MPLS was mixed with Dec 1/2 cent lower. Export commitments of all wheat actually gained ground last week by 0.3% but are still 4.6% below last year, as sales were much improved. The USDA lowered estimated ending stocks for both HRW and HRS, as HRW saw increased export and HRS had higher domestic use. Russia’s production was increased 1 MMT to 83 MMT on Thursday. Lower production in Brazil and Pakistan helped to offset that, along with adding imports to Brazil. Russia is hoping to improve their export infrastructure, with a goal to increase grain exports 50% in the next 3 years to an average of 7.5 MMT/ month.
Five Year Moving Average - Corn & Wheat:
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