TCR's Weekly Market Summary...
For the week ending March 23, 2018
For the week... A bearish Cattle on Feed Report, tariff & trade war worries, a Dow Jones that lost 1,400 points this week, combined with continuing concerns about increasing supplies of beef in the near future drove all market factors lower.
This week's Drought Monitor map shows why cattle left wheat pasture and went into feedyards early, which will definitely affect feedyard placements in upcoming months.
10 Day Market Trendline
Change from Previous Day: -2.05%
Change from 10 Days Ago: -6.28%
Change from 60 Days Ago: -3.77%
60 Day Market Trendline
Trendlines display the daily market factors for the past 10 & 60 days.
Each factor is the weighted total of the Gain/(Loss) for 12 major market indicators compared to the previous trading day.
The articles below are included in the WMS because we found them to be of interest but do not necessarily reflect the views of The Cattle Range.
Weekly Market Overview:
National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Weekly Summary:
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week 194,100 77,400 25,000 296,500
Last Week 265,100 44,600 1,600 311,300
Last Year 253,700 153,400 2,400 409,500
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold 3.00-10.00 lower, except in the Southeast where feeder steers and heifers traded mostly 2.00-5.00 lower, with instances 7.00-10.00 lower. Demand was light to moderate for all weight classes. Receipts were lighter this week when compared to last week, perhaps a combination of seasonal trends and lower prices keeping producers away. The CME cattle futures opened the week in the red, posting triple digit losses, which continued through Wednesday. Once the dust finally settled, the front two months of live and feeder cattle contracts lost 3.00-4.00 from last Friday’s close. On Thursday the futures finally saw a slight recovery before hefty losses again on Friday. The discouraging news trickled down to major cattle markets early in the week, with Oklahoma City and Joplin Stockyards posting sharp losses. The rest of the auction barns across the country noticed and followed suit. Order buyers had to readjust their bids accordingly to ensure profitability.
Feedlots are in no hurry to buy cattle as pen space is limited in the feed yards. There are concerns of a large number of market ready cattle in the next quarter, which has the industry looking bearish. Demand for calves has dwindled at the moment as cattle grazers have filled their orders. Nevertheless, demand for thin fleshed cattle suitable for summer grazing remains good and they are selling at a premium. Some steers worth mentioning this week out of Valentine, NE are two loads weighing 693 lbs ringing in at 174.75. A very good price as compared to the same cattle in other parts of the country. Once again, feedlot trade occurred midweek. On Tuesday in the Southern Plains, live cash trades were at 126.00, with a few live trades in Kansas on Thursday at 125.00. On Wednesday in Nebraska, live purchases ranged from 125.00-126.00, with the bulk at 126.00 and in the Western Corn-belt live cash purchases were from 126.00-128.00, with a few up to 130.00. Dressed trades in Nebraska and the Western Corn-belt on Wednesday were from 200.00-203.00.
Spring is finally here and ranchers are itching to turn calves out on grass; yet, it might be another month until pastures turn green. Winter conditions are still lingering in the Northern Plains as some parts of the Dakotas saw snow accumulation Monday and Tuesday, forcing cattle raisers to continue to find other ways of feeding. More snow is expected Friday thru Saturday with Herreid, SD postponing their sale due to the impending storm. Additionally, cattle that are being marketed throughout local barns in the Dakotas are entering the ring in moderate to heavy flesh conditions. Drought conditions still loom throughout the Southern Plains and in the West with spotty storms providing relief in some areas. Western Oklahoma saw nearly an inch of rain this week, but precipitation levels remain well below normal.
The Cold Storage report was released Thursday with total red meat supplies in freezers down slightly from the previous month but up 1 percent from last year. Total pounds of beef in the cooler was down 8 percent from last month and also from a year ago. Frozen pork supplies increased by 6 percent from the last report and 8 percent from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were up 6 percent from the previous month and up 188 percent from last year. Friday's Cattle on Feed data showed cattle on feed on March 1 was up 9 percent from a year ago; Placements up 7 percent and Marketings up 2 percent. Auction volume this week included 55 percent weighing over 600 lbs and 43 percent heifers.
Weekly sales of Stocker Calves & Feeder Cattle sold via auctions, direct country sales, and video/Internet sales as reported by the UDSA Market News
Five Year Moving Average...
Cattle Futures Summary:
Live cattle futures were down 4.29% on the week in nearby April, as the front months lost $1.425 to $2.20 on Friday. Feeder cattle futures were $1.225 to $1.925 lower on the day, with March losing 3.05% this week. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.41 on March 22 at $137.98. Wholesale boxed beef values were sharply lower on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes were down $2.12 at $223.09, with Select boxes $1.62 lower at $216.40. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter is at 607,000 head through Saturday, 12,000 above last week but 6,000 below the same week in 2017. Export sales of beef during the week of March 15 totaled just 6,045 MT, a marketing year (MY) low. A reduction of 2,700 MT was reported for Japan. Shipments of beet were reported at 16,744 MT, the seconds largest this year. This afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report showed February placements of 1.817 million head, up 7.26%, with marketings up 1.64% at 1.675 million head. March 1 cattle on feed ran 8.75% larger than last year at 11.715 million head.
Receipts EST: 26,000 Week ago Act: 23,863 Year ago Act: 23,342
Compared to last week, steer calves and yearlings 5.00-10.00 lower. Heifers 10.00 lower. Trade moderate to active, demand moderate to good. Supply consisted of steers and spayed heifers weighing 300-600 lbs.
Feeder steers: Medium and large 1&2, 300-400 lbs 180.00-195.00; 400-500 lbs 160.00-175.00; 500-600 lbs 140.00-155.00; Medium and large 2&3, 300-400 lbs 170.00-185.00; 400-500 lbs 150.00-165.00; 500-600 lbs 130.00-145.00.
Feeder heifers: Medium and large 1&2, 300-400 lbs 145.00-155.00; 400-500 lbs 135.00-145.00; 500-600 lbs 125.00-135.00.
Selected Auction Reports:
Tulia Livestock Auction - Tulia TX
Receipts: 2221 Last Week: 4558 Year Ago: 2864
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers sold 2.00 to 3.00 lower. Trade was fairly active on good demand. Drought continues as cattleman are hoping for a rain soon.
Farmers & Ranchers Livestock Commission Co. - Salina KS
Receipts: 3070 Last Week: 3698 Year Ago: 5806
Compared to last week: Steers 800-1000 lbs 1.00-3.00 lower; 800 lbs and under lower undertones noted some instances 5.00 lower. Heifers 700-1050 lbs steady to 4.00 lower; 700 lbs and under lower undertone noted.
Huss Platte Valley Auction - Kearney NE
Receipts: 2028 Last Week: 3669 Year Ago: 2857
Compared to last week, steers under 600 lbs sold 4.00 lower, over 650 lbs sold 6.00 to 8.00 lower except a flat 700 lbs sold 15.00 lower. Heifers under 600 lbs sold 9.00 lower, over 600 lbs sold 2.00 to 5.00 lower.
El Reno Cattle Narrative - El Reno OK
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
7,263 13,159 10,109
*** Final report *** Compared to last week: Feeder steers sold 4.00-6.00 lower, feeder heifers traded 6.00 to fully 8.00 lower. Demand light. Steer and heifer calves lightly tested this week, however a sharply lower undertone was noted mostly 6.00-8.00 lower with instances of as much as 10.00 lower on 500-600 lb heifer calves.
Mitchell Livestock Wtd Avg Report - Mitchell SD
Receipts: 4659 Last Week: 6503 Year Ago: 6738
Compared to last week: Steers sold mostly 1.00 to 6.00 lower. Heifers 650-800 lbs 1.00 to 6.00 lower, 800-850 lbs 5.00 to 8.00 lower, 850-950 lbs 2.00 to 6.00 lower.
Cattleman's Livestock Auction - Dalhart, TX
Cattle and Calves: 2743 Week ago: 2344 Year Ago: 2,203
Compared to week ago: Feeder steers and heifers under 700 lbs mostly steady; over 700 lbs 1.00-2.00 lower, except 700-800 lb steers firm to 1.00 higher. Several strings of steer and heifer yearlings off wheat or winter grass were included in the offering.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg - Carthage MO
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
6,712 7,888 6,574
***CLOSE*** Compared to last week, steer calves over 450 lbs and heifer calves over 500 lbs 3.00 to 8.00 lower, steer calves under 450 lbs 10.00 lower on a limited test, heifer calves under 500 lbs steady, yearlings 2.00 to 4.00 lower.
Sioux Falls Regional Livestock wtd Avg Report - Worthing SD
Receipts: 3092 Last Week: 4804 Year Ago: 5793
Compared to last week: Steers under 650 lbs 2.00 to 6.00 lower, 700-850 lbs 5.00 to 10.00 lower, 850-950 lbs mostly 3.00 to 8.00 lower, 950-1000 lbs 7.00 to 10.00 lower. Heifers 550-600 lbs 8.00 to 10.00 lower, over 600 lbs 1.00 to 6.00 lower.
Winter Livestock - La Junta CO...
Receipts: 1992 Last Week: 7565 Year Ago: 1526
Compared with last Tuesday: Steers and heifers under 700 lbs 5.00 to 8.00 lower quality and condition considered. Yearling feeder steers and heifers over 700 lbs 2.00 to 3.00 lower.
Oklahoma National Stockyards - Oklahoma City, OK
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
6,865 9,169 6,545
*** Close *** Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers 3.00-6.00 lower. Demand light to moderate for feeder cattle as cattle futures continue lower. Stocker cattle and calves 4.00-10.00 lower.
Cullman Stockyard - Cullman AL
Receipts: 745 Last Week: 1161 Year Ago: 1164
Compared to last week: Slaughter cows and bulls sold 2.00 to 3.00 lower. Feeder bulls and steers sold 3.00 to 4.00 lower. Feeder heifers sold 4.00 to 5.00 lower.
Toppenish, WA Livestock Auction - Toppenish WA
Receipts: 1650 Last Week: 1500 Year Ago: 1270
Compared to last Thursday at the same market, stocker cattle less than 700 lbs. suitable to go to grass firm. Feeder cattle more than 700 lbs. weak. CME posted losses all week except for yesterday.
Blue Grass South Livestock Market - Stanford KY
Receipts: 697 Last Week: 192 Year Ago: 717
Compared to last Monday:Feeder steers 4.00-6.00 higher,Feeder heifers 3.00-5.00 higher,Good demand for feeder classes.Slaughter cows and bulls steady with good demand.
Clovis Livestock Auction - Clovis NM
Receipts: 2548 Last Week: 3152 Year Ago: 3332
Compared to last week: Feeder steers under 600 lbs 8.00-9.00 lower; over 600 lbs 9.00-10.00 lower, instances 16.00 lower on 600-700 lbs. Heifers under 600 lbs 10.00-11.00 lower; over 600 lbs 7.00-10.00 lower.
Green Forest Livestock Auction - Green Forest AR
Receipts: 609 Last Week: 770 Year Ago: 937
Compared to one week earlier, slaughter cows and slaughter bulls steady to 3.00 lower, feeder steers and steer calves unevenly steady, feeder bulls mostly steady, bull calves 3.00 to 8.00 lower,
Pratt Livestock Feeder Cattle Auction - Pratt, KS
Receipts: 4224 Last Week: 5454 Year Ago: 5230
** Close *** Compared to last week: Feeder steers 650-750 lbs 2.00-6.00 lower; 750-950 lbs 5.00-10.00 lower. Feeder heifers 600-800 lbs steady to firm; 800-900 lbs 2.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves a lower undertone noted on a light supply of Medium and Large 1.
Valentine Livestock Auction Market - Valentine NE
Receipts: 1115 Two weeks ago: 3950 Last year: 2865
No comparable offerings from two weeks ago for an accuratge comparison a trend will not be given for steers or heifers. Demand was good warmer weather in the area. Feeders made up 100 percent of the offering.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg - Carthage MO
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
6,712 7,888 6,574
***CLOSE*** Compared to last week, steer calves over 450 lbs and heifer calves over 500 lbs 3.00 to 8.00 lower, steer calves under 450 lbs 10.00 lower on a limited test, heifer calves under 500 lbs steady, yearlings 2.00 to 4.00 lower. Demand and supply moderate.
Russell Wtd Avg Feeder Cattle Auction - Russell IA
Receipts: 3193 2 weeks ago: 3307 Year Ago: 4809
Compared to the sale 2 weeks ago: Feeder strs under 600 lbs.mostly 8.00-10.00 lower, strs 600-700 lbs. mostly 4.00-6.00 higher, strs over 700 lbs. mostly 3.00-6.00 lower and feeder hfrs mostly 5.00-8.00 lower.
Denison Wtd Avg Feeder Cattle Auction - Denison IA
Receipts: 3193 2 weeks ago: 3307 Year Ago: 4809
Compared to the sale 2 weeks ago: Feeder strs under 600 lbs. mostly 8.00-10.00 lower, strs 600-700 lbs. mostly 4.00-6.00 higher, strs over 700 lbs. mostly 3.00-6.00 lower and feeder hfrs mostly 5.00-8.00 lower.
Direct Sales of Feeder & Stocker Cattle:
WY, Western NE & Western Dakotas Direct Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg (Fri)
Receipts: 1,691 Week Ago: 405 Year Ago: 14,101
Compared to last week heavy weight feeder steers sold a 5.00 lower. Heavy market pressure on the CME cattle boards flushed out some very willing sellers in this week’s direct trade.
AZ-CA-NV Weekly Feeder Cattle Review (Fri)
Compared to last week, Trade slow, demand light. Calf raisers and feedlots are at a standoff. A few lots of 300 lb Holstein steer calves for May Delivery traded.
IA-South MN Direct Feeder Cattle Weekly (Mon)
Receipts: 59 Last week: 122 Last Year: 0
Compared to the last report: Feeder steers and heifers not tested last week. Prices based on net weights FOB after a 3 percent shrink or equivalent and 5-10 cent slide on calves and 4-6 cent slide on yearlings from base weights.
Eastern Cornbelt Direct Feeder Cattle Summary (Fri)
This week: 2,043 Last week: 429 Last Year: 2,950
Compared to last week: No trend available due to last week’s Limited offerings. Supply included 100 percent over 600 lbs; 84 percent heifers. Prices based on net weights FOB after a 3 percent shrink or equivalent and 5-10 cent slide on calves and 4-6 cent slide on yearlings from base weights.
Colorado Direct Feeder Cattle Report (Fri)
Receipts: 764 Last Week 510 Last Year 23,414
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers not tested on A Current FOB Basis this week. Demand light to moderate. Supply consisted of 100 percent over 600 lbs; 18 percent heifers.
Kansas Direct Feeder Cattle Summary (Fri)
Receipts: 13,573 Last Week: 1,235 Last Year: 5,281
Compared with last week: Feeder steers and heifers not well tested Last week on a current FOB basis. A decline in cattle futures continues and slaughter cattle demand remains steady.
Montana Direct Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg (Fri)
Receipts: 0 Last Week: 0 Last Year: 0
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers not tested this week. Supply includes 0 percent over 600 lbs and 0 percent heifers.
New Mexico Feeder Cattle Report (Mon)
Receipts: 5,600 Last Week: 5,900 Year Ago: 6,400
Compared to last week: Not enough comparable sales of Current FOB steers or heifers for a market trend. Trade was fairly active on moderate to good demand.
Northwest Wtd Avg Direct Feeder Cattle Report (Fri)
Receipts: 640 Last Week: 0 Year Ago: 2,150
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers had no trades last week to compare to. The feeder supply included 100 percent over 600 lbs and 21 percent heifers.
Oklahoma Direct Feeder Cattle (Fri)
Receipts: 5,169 Last Week 5,797 Last Year 10,658
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers traded 3.00-7.00 lower on limited comparable sales from last week. Receipts this week consisted of 100 percent over 600 lbs and 56 percent heifers.
Texas Direct Feeder Cattle (Fri)
Receipts: 48,000 Last Week: 27,500 Year Ago: 81,100
Compared to last week: Current FOB sales of steers and heifers sold 2.00 to 5.00 lower. Trade was active on good demand. Majority of receipts were forward contracts.
Representative Sales of Cows & Pairs:
Reported by USDA Market News for the week ending March 23rd
Replacement Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 1-4 yr old 725-850 lb cow 4-8 months bred 810.00-925.00; 5-10 yr old 925-1212 lb cow 4-8 months bred 850.00-1200.00 per head.
Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2 1-6 yr old 800-1000 lb cow w/100-300 lb calf 925.00-1500.00; pkg 9-10 yr old 900 lb cow w/250 lb calf 935.00 per pair.
Replacement Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 Bred Heifer 950 lbs 7-8 months bred 1225.00; 5-7 yr old 1150-1550 lb black cow 6-8 months bred 1100.00-1125.00; 6-7 yr old 1175 lb black cow 4 months bred 1050.00; 6-8 yr old 1175-1300 lb cow, some black, 2-4 months bred 850.00-860.00 per head.
Replacement Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 Young to long solid mouth 900-1405 lb cows 1-8 months bred, 725.00-960.00, per head; middle aged short solid mouth 940-1300 lb cows 1-8 months bred 700.00-960.00, per head; aged 930-1335 lb cows 6-8 months bred 625.00-810.00, per head. First Calf Heifers: 720-1040 lb cows 3-6 months bred 800.00-875.00, per head.
Cow/Calf Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2: Young 875-1185 lb cows w/125-250 lb calves 875.00-1410.00, per pair.
Replacement Cows: Medium and Large 1-2: Young 765-1730 lb cows 3-8 months bred 750.00-1000.00, per head; middle aged 880-1410 lb cows 3-8 months bred 600.00-850.00, per head; aged 895-1255 lb cows 3-8 months bred 500.00-750.00, per head. First Calf Heifers: 660-771 lb cows 3-8 months bred 600.00-910.00, per head.
Cow/Calf Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2: Young 810-1110 lb cows w/80-300 lb calves 850.00-1300.00, per pair; middle aged 870-1185 lb cows w/70-150 lb calves 875.00-1125.00, per pair; aged 850-1100 lb cows w/70-225 lb calves 650.00-1000.00, per pair.
Bred Cows: Medium and Large 1 980-1180 lbs 6-9 months bred 1100.00-1500.00. Middle-Aged 940-1185 lbs 3-6 months bred 1300.00-1400.00; 1220-1280 lbs 3-9 months bred 1400.00-1535.00; 1240-1280 lbs 6-9 months bred 1500.00-1635.00. Medium and Large 1-2 910-1200 lbs 3-6 months bred 875.00-1260.00; pkg 1295 lbs 3-6 months bred 960.00. Large 1 1305-1590 lbs 3-9 months bred 1375.00-1750.00. Large 1-2 1355-1420 lbs 1-6 months bred 1060.00-1085.00. Aged Large 2 1310-1490 lbs 3-9 months bred 760.00-1025.00 all per head.
Cow-Calf Pairs: Medium and Large 1 Young 830-1230 lb cow w/150-275 lb calf 1785.00-2035.00. Middle-Aged 1010-1200 lb cow w/150-275 lb calf 1650.00-2050.00. Aged pkg 1225 lb cow w/200-275 lb calf 1600.00. Medium and Large 1-2 Middle-Aged 1085-1120 lb cow w/200-275 lb calf 1100.00-1475.00. Aged 1210-1340 lb cow w/150-200 lb calf 1060.00-1135.00. Medium and Large 2 Aged 975-1030 lb cow w/150-200 lb calf 725.00-950.00. Large 1 Middle-Aged pkg 1320 lb cow w/200-275 lb calf 2000.00. Large 1-2 Aged pkg 1350 lb cow w/150-200 lb calf 1275.00 all per pair.
Bowling Green, MO:
Replacement Cows: Bred Cows- Medium and Large 1 few heifers black 1260-1325 lbs 3rd stage 1800.00-1900.00; 3-6 yrs few 1200-1400 lbs 2nd-3rd stage 1525.00-1610.00. Medium and Large 1-2 3-7 yrs 1100-1450 lbs 1st-2nd stage 1275.00-1440.00. Medium and Large 2 2-6 yrs 1000-1350 lbs 1st-2nd stage 1000.00-1200.00, 7 yrs to aged cows 1200-1600 lbs 2nd-3rd stage 810.00-1050.00.
Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2 2-7 yrs 1000-1550 lbs w/150-350 lb calves 1575.00-1825.00; short solid mouth 1300-1500 lbs w/150-250 lb calves 1525.00-1600.00. Medium and Large 2 2-6 yrs 900-1300 lbs w/150-200 lb calves 1400.00-1480.00, pkg thin 1100 lbs w/150 lb calves 1110.00; few short solid to aged cows 1200-1450 lbs w/150-200 lb calves 1190.00-1300.00, thin 1100-1200 lbs w/150 lb calves 1110.00-1150.00.
Bred Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 4 yrs to short and solid mouth 2nd and 3rd stage 1175-1360 lbs 1085.00-1250.00, 1st stage 1125-1255 lbs 800.00-850.00; short and solid mouth to aged 2nd and 3rd stage 1100-1370 lbs 660.00-1025.00, 1st stage few short and solid mouth 1125-1270 lbs 640.00-680.00. Large 1-2 4-7 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 1390-1475 lbs 1110.00-1350.00; short and solid mouth 2nd and 3rd stage 1385-1740 lbs 805.00-950.00. Medium and Large 2 4-5 yrs 2nd stage pkg. 1068 lbs 950.00; broken mouth 2nd stage 1130 lb indiv. 600.00. Medium 1-2 2-4 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 885-1015 lbs 910.00-1000.00, 1st stage 865-915 lbs 710.00-825.00; short and solid mouth to aged 2nd and 3rd stage 910-960 lbs 450.00-588.00 per head.
Cow/Calf Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2 2-3 yrs couple pkgs. 985-1175 lb cows w/155-220 lb calves and a few rebred 1375.00-1400.00. Medium 1-2 2 yrs to short and solid mouth 770-945 lb cows w/babies to 300 lb calves 1050.00-1075.00; broken mouth 900 lb cow w/125 lb calf 800.00 per pair.
La Junta, CO:
Replacement Stock: Medium and Large 1 Young 1145-1380 lbs 1535.00-1625.00, half load 3 yr old calving Apr to July 1310.00, summer calvers 1010-1235 lbs 1000.00-1100.00; Middle age 1350-1380 lbs 1225.00-1325.00; Aged 1235-1425 lbs 810.00-910.00. Medium and Large 1-2 Young 1060-1290 lbs 1335.00-1460.00.
Cow-Calf pairs: Medium and Large 1 Young 1080-1335 lbs with 80 to 150 lb calves 1510.00-1625.00; Aged few 1025-1250 lbs with 50 to 125 lb calves 1275.00-1300.00. Medium and Large 1-2 950-1250 lbs with 50-125 lb calves 1310.00-1425.00.
Replacement Cows: Medium and Large 1-2 2-7 year old 850-1250 lbs 2nd-3rd stage 95.00-105.00/975.00-1075.00, first stage/open 68.00-78.00, 7-10 year old 2nd-3rd stage 57.00-67.00/775.00-875.00 per head.
Cow-Calf Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2 3-7 yr old 800-1200 lb cow w/100-200 lb calf 1175.00-1275.00, some to 1650.00, 200-300 lb calf 1275.00-1375.00 per pair.
Alberta Beef Producers:
Alberta direct cattle sales Thursday saw light trade develop with dressed sales marked at 275.00 delivered. Initial sales are 1.00-3.00 lower than last week. Buyers were indicating cattle that they bought this week would be lifted in 2-3 weeks. Cash to futures basis levels did strengthen this week. Looking at the futures market both live and feeder cattle futures are seeing triple digit losses this morning.
Prices have been converted to U.S. $/CWT. Grades changed to approximate U.S. equivalents
Exchange Rate: Canadian dollar equivalent to $0.7693 U.S. dollars
Prices for the week ending March 16th
United States Cattle on Feed up 9 Percent
- Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.7 million head on March 1, 2018. The inventory was 9 percent above March 1, 2017.
- Placements in feedlots during February totaled 1.82 million head, 7 percent above 2017. Net placements were 1.76 million head.
- During February, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 325,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 335,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 537,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 420,000 head,900-999 pounds were 150,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 50,000 head.
- Marketings of fed cattle during February totaled 1.68 million head, 2 percent above 2017.
- Other disappearance totaled 57,000 head during February, 2 percent above 2017.
Cattle on Feed Inventory in 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots as of March 1st
Millions of Head
Number of Cattle Placed on Feed in 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots in February
Millions of Head
Number of Cattle Marketed from 1,000+ Capacity Feedlots in February
Millions of Head
Cattle on Feed by State as of March 1st
March Livestock Slaughter Report:
Record High Red Meat and Pork Production for February
Commercial red meat production for the United States totaled 4.06 billion pounds in February, up 3 percent from the 3.94 billion pounds produced in February 2017.
- Beef production, at 1.98 billion pounds, was 3 percent above the previous year. Cattle slaughter totaled 2.42 million head, up 2 percent from February 2017. The average live weight was up 8 pounds from the previous year, at 1,368 pounds.
- Veal production totaled 5.8 million pounds, 3 percent above February a year ago. Calf slaughter totaled 41,100 head, up 2 percent from February 2017. The average live weight was up 1 pound from last year, at 242 pounds.
- Pork production totaled 2.06 billion pounds, up 4 percent from the previous year. Hog slaughter totaled 9.64 million head, up 3 percent from February 2017. The average live weight was up 2 pounds from the previous year, at 286 pounds.
- Lamb and mutton production, at 11.8 million pounds, was up 5 percent from February 2017. Sheep slaughter totaled 164,800 head, 3 percent above last year. The average live weight was 143 pounds, up 3 pounds from February a year ago.
January to February 2018 commercial red meat production was 8.65 billion pounds, up 5 percent from 2017.
Accumulated beef production was up 5 percent from last year, veal was up 4 percent, pork was up 5 percent from last year, and lamb and mutton production was up 4 percent.
USDA National Retail Beef Report:
Advertised Prices for Beef at Major Retail Supermarket Outlets
This week in Beef Retail, the Feature Rate fell by 4.3 percent, the Special Rate, decreased by 1.3 percent, and the Activity Index posted a 8.3 percent decrease. The demand for Brisket has faded with St. Patrick's day in the past. Now the attention turns to Easter as Beef will be in direct competition with both pork and lamb protein sources as those items make their presence known at the meat cases around the country. Cuts from the Round and Loin saw the most ad space this week, while Rib, Chuck, Brisket, and Ground Beef items saw less. The cattle slaughter under federal inspection saw a 2.0 percent increase when comparted to last week.
Photo of the Week:
"Shootin' the Bull" Weekly Analysis:
In my opinion, meat markets continued lower this week as anticipated. Most all fats set and closed at a new low in this decline from the 2/20 high. Of the most interest this week has been the willingness to get out in front of what has been likened to a train wreck. I posed this question to my subscribers and I pose it to you as well. What, if any, changes have been made to the train wreck from many attempting to avoid it through either cash forward marketing, futures or options? My thought only is that it most likely created an expectation in the futures market too great for the cash market to meet. Especially if demand conditions remain as is. So, chew on that over the weekend and see if there are some factors to add to analysis of the rush to get ahead of the wreck and what that might have done to or for future price.
Last week I wrote to anticipate the extreme. This week's lower trading has tempered that a little. The tariff has been headline for the past couple of days. I take this issue with a grain of salt. One, there are no tariff's yet. Two, tariff's are not anticipated to impact consumers discretionary spending habits. Three, even if the tariff's are applied, it could be months before the cost increase trickles to the consumer at the grocery store. Next, there is the disparity in the basis. This has yet to be addressed, but is anticipated to begin as soon as next week. The widening of the positive basis creates disparity. Until that stops, the situation continues. I anticipate a sharp decline in cash from one week to the next between $2.00 to $6.00. When this occurs, the disparity stops and the narrowing of the basis begins. This does not suggest a price direction, but a resolve of an issue. As the issue is being resolved, then I believe traders/producers will begin looking beyond this mountain of meat and begin trading the futures accordingly towards lesser supply in the future. I believe as well that once we see the cash start to drop, new questions will be asked as to the ability of the cash to meet expectations of current futures price. I do not believe it will. I anticipate traders to begin slowly pushing futures higher to meet the falling cash. Due to their being so much price differential, it could look like a big rally in the futures, but in actuality, it is nothing more than the narrowing of the basis.
So, due to the severity of the disparity, I cannot in good conscious recommend anyone expose themselves to basis risk of $19.00 or more. It is a no win situation. For those that did not or were not able to get in front of the train wreck, I believe the risk of further downside is less than the width of the basis you would be exposing yourself to were you to sell futures today. Lastly, I find myself discussing closing prices most days in this manor, front month fats weak, whether higher or lower, back month fats not nearly as weak, whether higher or lower, and feeders to be the strongest, whether higher or lower. While not day in, day out, they are more often than not formatted at the close like this. It is a pricing structure that says about the same thing as does the fundamentals. There is elevated inventory to market today, there will be less in the future, because of the hard pull on feeders for so long now.
Feeders are what I am most interested in. Not only do they have a pretty readable wave count to them, there will be less of them placed on feed going forward for quite some time to come. A client brought to my attention this morning the 2008 August feeder contract. It was noted that fundamentals were similar to today's and the chart pattern is near identical to date. It showed that in March, it made its contract low. After March, the August 2008 feeder market rallied sharply to expiration and set a new contract high. Due to the chart pattern suggesting from the 11/6/17 high to date as being an A, B, C zig-zag correction, the next most probable move is back to the upside. There is a clean 5 wave up move from October of '16 to November of '17. This 3 wave zig-zag pattern is the major wave 2 correction of the initial 5 wave sequence of major wave 1. Therefore, upon completion of the major wave 2, a major wave 3 rally will be anticipated to produce an upside target to $203.60. These calculations are based on the feeder cattle index. Using the weekly continuation of spot month, the target is $2.00 shy of the index target. The work now is finding the bottom of the C wave of major wave 2. The August feeders reflect a portion of the up move and all of the correction.
So, don't be disappointed if a new contract low were to be made, it would not be that significant yet. In attempting to find the bottom of C, I have subdivided the wave count to a 5 wave sequence of wave C. At this time, I think wave 3 of C is complete and wave 4 of C either in progress, or potentially already complete. A new low next week will help to confirm a few things. Regardless of whether I miss the wave count between magnitudes, I think I will only miss it by a small amount. That being, if I am only buying the bottom of the wave 3, I should still see some higher price action from the larger magnitude wave 4. As I am completing writing this, I've now seen the on feed report. It doesn't change much. It is slightly worse than construed, but more likely than not, will bring the bottom sooner rather than later with how high the placements continued to be in February.
On Friday, I recommended to buy December corn with a sell stop to exit only at $3.89&1/2. ***This is a sales solicitation.*** Corn reversed a bludgeoning Friday morning sell off to close on the high of the day. I think grains are the least likely to be impacted by any tariff's were they to be imposed. It would be difficult to starve livestock. Were there to have been a real issue, beans would have most likely limit down. Wheat reversed as well today. I continue to like wheat. The volatility and wide price expanse makes for an exciting chart pattern to the upside. I continue to anticipate wheat to trade higher.
Christopher B. Swift is a commodity broker and consultant with Swift Trading Company in Nashville, TN. Mr. Swift authors the daily commentaries "mid day cattle comment" and "Shootin' the Bull" commentary found on his website @ www.shootinthebull.com
An investment in futures contracts is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of their margin deposits. You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
March Cold Storage Report:
Total red meat supplies in freezers were down slightly from the previous month but up 1 percent from last year.
- Total pounds of beef in freezers were down 8 percent from the previous month and down 8 percent from last year.
- Frozen pork supplies were up 6 percent from the previous month and up 8 percent from last year. Stocks of pork bellies were up 6 percent from last month and up 188 percent from last year.
Total frozen poultry supplies on February 28, 2018 were up 6 percent from the previous month and up 14 percent from a year ago.
- Total stocks of chicken were up 3 percent from the previous month and up 15 percent from last year.
- Total pounds of turkey in freezers were up 14 percent from last month and up 13 percent from February 28, 2017.
Over the past 5 years, an average of around 10% of U.S. beef production has been exported, making exports an extremely important factor affecting beef and cattle prices. A strong dollar depresses export demand.
Boxed beef cutout values lower on light to moderate demand and moderate offerings. Select and Choice rib and round cuts steady to firm while loin cuts weak to lower. Choice chuck cuts lower while Select steady. Beef trimmings sharply higher on moderate to good demand and light offerings.
The average value of hide and offal for the five days ending Fri, Mar 23, 2018 was estimated at 10.09 per cwt., down 0.09 from last week and down 1.83 from last year.
Feeder Steers/Corn Correlation:
Historically, the value of 25 bushels of corn is approximately equal to the price per cwt. for feeder steers.
Slaughter cows sold mostly 1.00 to 4.00 lower. Slaughter bulls mostly steady to 1.00 lower. Packer demand moderate. Cutter Cow Carcass Cut-Out Value on Friday 173.21
Weight Colorado Oklahoma Alabama
Breakers 1100-1600 63.00-65.00 62.00-65.00 58.00-61.00
Boners 1000-1450 64.50-68.50 63.00-67.00 58.00-63.00
Lean 1000-1300 59.00-61.50 62.00-66.00 52.00-55.00
Bulls 1300-2500 80.00-81.50 86.00-89.50 82.00-87.00
Daily Direct Cow & Bull Negotiated Report:
Confirmed Week Ago Year Ago YTD Year Ago
National 7,441 9,613 7,625 42,950 36,512
S Central 2,221 3,016 2,033 13,077 10,860
N Central 662 911 1,079 3,420 4,365
East 2,185 2,447 1,853 11,288 8,305
West 683 1,161 1,294 5,560 7,156
Midwest 1,690 2,078 1,366 9,605 5,826
Total red meat production under Federal inspection for the week ending Saturday, March 24, 2018 was estimated at 1019.2 million lbs. according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Marketing Service. This was 1.0 percent higher than a week ago and 2.3 percent higher than a year ago. Cumulative meat production for the year to date was 3 percent higher compared to the previous year.
Weekly Hay Reports: "Click" on links for detailed report
Washington - Oregon (Columbia Basin)
The USDA reports feed ingredient prices for the week ending March 20, 2018 were mixed.
Soybean Meal was 12.80 to 28.80 lower. Cottonseed Meal was steady to 45.00 lower, mostly steady. Whole Cottonseed was steady to 20.00 lower. Canola Meal was steady to 23.80 lower. Linseed Meal was steady. Sunflower Meal was steady to 5.00 lower.
Crude Soybean Oil was 23 to 48 points lower. Crude Corn Oil was 126 points higher.
Ruminant Meat and Bone Meal was steady to 85.00 higher, mostly steady. Ruminant Blood Meal was not well established. Feather Meal was 5.00 to 35.00 higher. Menhaden Fishmeal was not well established.
Corn Hominy was steady to 10.00 lower. Corn Gluten Feed was steady to 5.00 lower. Corn Gluten Meal was mixed, 15.00 lower to 30.00 higher.
Distillers Dried Grain was mixed, 2.00 lower to 7.00 higher.
Wheat Middlings were steady to 5.00 lower. Wheat millrun was steady to 5.00 higher.
5 Year Bullish/Bearish Consensus Charts:
The theory behind the "Bullish/Bearish Consensus" indicator is when the public reaches a consensus, they are usually wrong:
They get too bullish after prices have risen and too bearish after they have already fallen.
Because of this tendency, there are often extremes in opinion right before major changes in trend:
When the public reaches a bullish extreme, i.e., a great majority thinks prices will keep rising, then prices often decline instead.
And when they become too bearish, then prices tend to rise.
So when Public Opinion moves above the red dotted line in the chart, it means that compared to other readings over the past year, you're seeing excessive optimism. You also want to look at the absolute level of Opinion, too - if it's at 90%, then there's no question we're seeing an historic level of bullish opinion. Watch for readings above 80% (or especially 90%) to spot those dangerous times when the public is overly enthusiastic about a commodity.
Conversely, when Public Opinion moves below the green dotted line, then the public is excessively pessimistic about the commodity's prospects for further gains compared to their opinion over the past year. Looking for absolute readings under 20% (or especially 10%) often indicates an upturn in the market.
Stock Markets & Economic News:
T. Rowe Price
GEOPOLITICAL TURBULENCE SENDS STOCKS LOWER
Stocks suffered steep losses for the week against a remarkably turbulent geopolitical backdrop. The large-cap Standard & Poor’s 500 Index eclipsed its sharp drop in early February and recorded its worst weekly loss since the start of 2016. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite performed even worse, weighed down in part by a steep drop in Facebook shares following revelations about undisclosed use of customer data. Likewise, technology shares fared especially poorly in the S&P 500 Index, along with financials and health care stocks. Conversely, energy stocks managed to escape the week’s downdraft, thanks to a rally in oil prices to seven-week highs following reports of a drawdown in crude inventories. The declines took most of the indexes back into negative territory for the year to date.
TRADE WAR FEARS GROW
Multiple factors appeared to weigh on sentiment during the week, but the prospect of escalating trade tensions was clearly chief among them. The week’s biggest declines occurred Thursday afternoon, following the Trump administration’s announcement that it was planning on imposing tariffs on $60 billion worth of imports from China, along with new restrictions on technology transfers and acquisitions of U.S. firms by Chinese competitors. On Friday, the Chinese Commerce Ministry referred to the tariff plans as setting a “vile precedent.” Additionally, Chinese officials declared that they would target $3 billion in U.S. goods with import duties of their own in response to previously announced U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs.
T. Rowe Price traders observed that other unexpected developments at the White House also unnerved markets. Stocks wobbled earlier Thursday following news of the resignation of John Dowd, President Trump’s chief attorney in the Mueller probe. After the close of trading, news also came of the replacement of National Security Advisor H. R. McMaster with former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton, widely perceived as likely to take a harder line against North Korea and Iran. Finally, stocks wavered again on Friday morning, following a tweet from the president threatening a veto of a $1.3 trillion spending bill that passed through Congress on Thursday. A veto would have prompted a government shutdown at midnight Friday, but President Trump eventually signed the bill on Friday afternoon, warning that he would “never sign another bill like this again.”
"Click Here" to view a Slide Show of Drought Monitor maps for the last 12 weeks
During the next 5 days, precipitation amounts are forecast to be high in much of California along with the risk of flooding. Precipitation amounts may approach 2 inches in the Intermountain West, Northwest, and parts of the High Plains. Elsewhere, a large swath totaling 0.25-2.00 inches of precipitation is projected to fall in parts of the Midwest and Northeast. The drought stricken Four Corners region, western Texas and eastern Colorado is expected to continue to be dry.
The 6-10 day outlook from the Climate Prediction Center calls for an increased chance of below-normal precipitation in the West while the highest probability of precipitation is forecast for the South. The probability of above-normal temperatures are also highest in the South. Below-normal temperatures are most likely to occur across the western third of the U.S.
Feedyard Closeouts: Profit/
Closeout projections are for cattle placed on feed by a cattle owner at a commercial feedyard and not for cattle owned by a feedyard and fed at cost or a farmer/feeder utilizing his own feed.
Typical closeout for un-hedged steers sold this week:
Cost of 750 lb. steer delivered @ $155.24 per cwt:$1,164.30
Feed Cost for 600 lbs. @ $74.58 per cwt:$447.48
Interest @ Prime + 2% on cattle cost for 165 days:$30.26
Interest @ Prime + 2% of the feed cost for 165 days: $5.82
Total Cost & Expense:$1,647.86
Sale proceeds: 1,350 lb. steer @ $126.00 per cwt:$1,701.00
This week's Profit/per head: $53.14
Profit/per head for previous week: $87.32
Change from previous week:
Sale price necessary to breakeven:$122.06
Projected closeout for steers placed on feed this week:
Cost of 750 lb. steer delivered @ $139.75 per cwt:$1,048.13
Feed Cost for 600 lbs. @ $76.24 per cwt:$457.44
Interest @ Prime + 2% on cattle cost for 165 days:$29.61
Interest @ Prime + 2% of the feed cost for 165 days:$6.46
Total Cost & Expense:$1,541.64
Sale proceeds: October Futures @ $108.92 per cwt:$1,470.42
This week's Profit/per head:
Profit/per head for previous week:
Sale price necessary to breakeven:$114.20
Friday trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in most feeding regions. Not enough purchase in any feeding region for an adequate market test. The latest established market in the Southern Plains was on Tuesday with live purchases at 126.00. On Wednesday in Nebraska, live purchases ranged from 125.00-126.50, bulk at 126.00. Dressed purchases traded from 200.00-203.00. In Colorado on Wednesday, a light test of live purchases traded at 126.00, with a few up to 126.50. On Wednesday in the Western Cornbelt, the bulk of live purchases traded from 126.000-128.00 with a few up to 130.00. Dressed purchases traded from 200.00-203.00.
Negotiated Sales: Confirmed: 4,266 Week Ago: 13,345 Year Ago: 20,328
Formula Purchases: Net - Dressed
Head count priced today: 15,700
Weighted avg weight: 849.00
Weighted avg net price: 202.15
Livestock Slaughter under Federal Inspection:
CATTLE CALVES HOGS SHEEP
Friday (est 108,000 2,000 452,000 7,000
Week ago (est) 107,000 2,000 450,000 9,000
Year ago (act) 114,000 2,000 416,000 5,000
Week to date (est) 581,000 10,000 2,291,000 40,000
Last Week (est) 573,000 10,000 2,295,000 40,000
Last Year (act) 580,000 10,000 2,191,000 38,000
Saturday (est 26,000 0 118,000 2,000
Week ago (est) 22,000 0 118,000 2,000
Year ago (act) 34,000 0 132,000 1,000
Week to date (est) 607,000 10,000 2,409,000 42,000
Last Week (est) 595,000 10,000 2,413,000 42,000
Last Year* (act) 613,000 10,000 2,323,000 39,000
2018 YTD 7,155,000 123,000 28,507,000 449,000
2017 *YTD 7,013,000 120,000 27,770,000 443,000
Percent change 2.0% 2.4% 2.7% 1.5%
National Grain Summary:
Compared to last week, cash bids for wheat were mixed, sorghum, soybeans, and corn were lower. Much of this weeks trade may have been focused on getting positions set before next weeks prospective planting reports are released. Ethanol manufacturing for week ending March 16th was up 24,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week, putting the manufacturing total at 1.049 million barrels per day. Ethanol stocks have dropped a little over 500,000 barrels and but remained strong at 23.76 million barrels. USDA said last week's export shipments of wheat totaled 16.3 million bushels. Corn export shipments totaled 55.5 million bushels, and soybean export shipments totaled 18 million bushels. Export numbers for all three commodities failed to meet weekly average projections. Wheat was mixed from 47.1/2 cents lower to 30 cents higher. Corn was 7 3/4 to 11 cents lower. Sorghum was 6 to19 cents lower. Soybeans were 11 to 12 cents lower.
Corn futures settled with most contracts 1 to 2 cents higher, with May down 1.44% since last Friday. This morning’s delayed USDA Export Sales report indicated 1.47 MMT in old crop corn export sales for the week ending 3/15, on the low side of expectations. That was down 41.31% from last week’s MY high, but 21.47% larger than the same week in 2017. There were 14,492 MT in net reductions for new crop corn sales. Export shipments of corn for that week totaled 1.375 MMT, 10.42% lower than a year ago and 2.2% off of last week. Accumulated exports so far this MY are at 21.587 MMT, down 22.19% from last year. Brazil’s first season corn crop is 43% harvested according to AgRural, lagging the average of 52%. Planting of the second crop was reported at 99% complete.
Wheat futures settled the day with 8-9 cents gains in the HRW and HRS contracts, as SRW was 4-5 cents higher. Pre-weekend profit taking helped. Nearby KC was down 4.05% on the week, with MPLS 1.47% lower and CBT down 1.6%. The 5-day QPF now shows most of the rain chance for early next week confined to the eastern parts of the Southern Plains, with western KS now showing little to no rainfall. All wheat export sales were reported at 265,208 MT during the week of 3/15, on the high end of most analysts’ expectations. That is 62.9% larger than last week’s total, but still 36.6% smaller that this time last year. New crop sales were shown at 163,383 MT. Exports of all wheat were tallied at 472,845 MT, up 41.23 % from a week ago but 27.11% lower than this time last year.
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