Summary of April WASDE Report
USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates - Released April 9th
Report Neutral for Corn; Slightly Bullish for Cattle
LIVESTOCK & POULTRY: The 2021 forecast for total red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month on lower expected pork and turkey production. The beef production forecast is raised from the previous month primarily on higher cattle slaughter in the second half of year, but production gains are partially offset by lighter carcass weights. Pork production is lowered on a slower pace of slaughter through the remainder of the year, but this decline is partially offset by heavier hog weights. USDA’s March Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimated that the December 2020-February 2021 pig crop was about one percent below year-earlier and producers indicated intentions to farrow about 3 percent fewer sows during March-May. These hogs will be available for slaughter in the second half of 2021. Annual broiler production is unchanged from the previous month while the turkey production forecast is reduced on recent production and hatchery data.
For 2021, the beef import forecast is reduced largely on weakness in imports from Australia while exports are unchanged. The pork export forecast is raised on expectation of continued firm global demand for U.S. pork products. The pork import forecast is also raised. The turkey export forecast is raised on recent trade data. No change is made to the broiler export forecast.
The 2021 cattle price forecast is raised on current price strength and firm demand. The hog price forecast is raised from last month on recent price strength and lowered supply expectations. The broiler price forecast is reduced, reflecting a lower first-quarter price and weaker demand while the turkey price forecast is raised slightly on lowered production. The egg price forecast is lowered on recent price declines.
CORN: This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is for greater feed and residual use, increased corn used for ethanol production, larger exports, and lower ending stocks. Feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels to 5.7 billion based on corn stocks reported as of March 1, which indicated disappearance during the December-February quarter rose about 6 percent relative to a year ago. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 25 million bushels based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report, and the pace of weekly ethanol production during March as indicated by Energy Information Administration data. Exports are increased 75 million bushels, based on export inspection data for the month of March that was the largest monthly total on record, surpassing the previous high set in November of 1989. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.30 per bushel, as reported prices through February indicate much of the crop was marketed at lower prices.
Global coarse grain production for 2020/21 is forecast 1.2 million tons higher to 1,446.0 million. This month’s 2020/21 foreign coarse grain outlook is for higher production, reduced trade, and larger stocks relative to last month. Corn production is raised for Pakistan, the EU-27+UK, and Ecuador, with partly offsetting reductions for Argentina and Indonesia. Barley production is higher for Argentina and the EU-27+UK, but lowered for Mexico.
Major global trade changes include lower forecast corn exports for Ukraine, based on shipment data to date. Corn imports are raised for Bangladesh. Barley exports are raised for Canada, Argentina, and the EU-27+UK, with partly offsetting reductions for Iraq and Kazakhstan. Barley imports are sharply higher for China, with a partly offsetting reduction for Morocco. Foreign corn ending stocks are essentially unchanged from last month, mostly reflecting increases for South Korea and Pakistan that are offset by a reduction for Saudi Arabia.
WHEAT: This month’s supply and demand outlook for wheat is for lower supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are lowered with a reduction in projected imports by 10 million bushels to 110 million on a lower than expected import pace with decreases in Durum and Hard Red Spring. Domestic consumption is reduced primarily on less implied feed and residual use as well as a small reduction in seed use. The NASS Grain Stocks report, issued March 31, indicated less feed and residual disappearance for both the second and third quarters.
As a result, annual 2020/21 feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 100 million. Exports are unchanged this month, but there are offsetting by-class changes for White and Hard Red Winter exports. Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are raised to 852 million bushels but are still 17 percent below last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.00 per bushel.
The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for slightly smaller supplies, increased consumption, higher exports, and reduced stocks this month. Supplies are lowered 0.5 million tons to 1,076.5 million but 2020/21 production remains at a record 776.5 million. World 2020/21 consumption is increased 5.1 million tons to 781.0 million, mainly on higher feed and residual use for China. Auction sales of China’s old-crop wheat stocks continue to be large and domestic corn prices in China remain at a premium to wheat. This is expected to further increase China’s 2020/21 wheat feed and residual use, raised 5.0 million tonsto a record 40.0 million.
Projected 2020/21 global trade is raised 1.2 million tons to a record 198.9 million, mostly on higher exports by Russia and the EU-27+UK. Russia’s exports are raised 0.5 million to 39.5 million despite the recent imposition of an export tax. Russia’s monthly exports continue to be large and its prices remain competitive internationally. EU-27+UK exports are increased 0.5 million tons to 27.5 million on a stronger than expected pace. Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are lowered 5.7 million tons to 295.5 million with China accounting for most of the reduction. Stocks in China in 2020/21 are projected to decline for the first time in eight years (or since 2012/13).