Summary of January WASDE Report
USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates - Released January 12th
Higher Cattle & Corn Prices Forecast for 2021
LIVESTOCK & POULTRY: The 2020 total red meat and poultry production estimate is reduced from last month. The beef production estimate is reduced on lower cattle slaughter. The pork production estimate is reduced as the slower pace of slaughter in late 2020 more than offset heavier carcass weights. The broiler production estimate is reduced on recent hatchery and slaughter data, while the turkey production estimate is lowered or recent production data.
For 2021, the total red meat and poultry production forecast is lowered from the previous month as lower expected beef, broiler, and turkey production more than offsets higher pork production. Lower expected placements in late 2020 will impact fed cattle supplies in mid2021. Cattle carcass weights are forecast lighter for 2021. USDA will release its semiannual Cattle report on January 29, providing estimates of heifers held for breeding and an insight into the number of feeder cattle available for placement during 2021. The pork production forecast for 2021 is raised from the previous month as higher expected hog slaughter more than offsets lighter expected carcass weights. Broiler, turkey, and egg production forecasts are lowered for 2021 as higher feed costs are expected to slow production growth.
The beef import estimate for 2020 is reduced on recent trade data while the 2021 import forecast is reduced primarily due to lower expected imports from Australia. Beef exports for 2020 and 2021 are raised from last month. Pork exports for 2020 and 2021 are lowered from last month on weaker import demand from key trading partners. The 2020 broiler export estimate is raised on recent trade data, but no change is made to the 2021 export forecast. Livestock and poultry price estimates for 2020 are adjusted to reflect December price data.
For 2021, cattle prices are raised on a lower production forecast. The 2021 hog price forecast is raised, reflecting strong domestic demand. Broiler prices are raised as lower forecast production in the second half of the year is expected to support firmer prices.
CORN: This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, reduced corn used for ethanol, smaller feed and residual use and exports, and decreased ending stocks. Corn production is estimated at 14.182 billion bushels, down 324 million on a lower yield and slight reduction in harvested area.
Total corn use is down 250 million bushels to 14.575 billion. Exports are down 100 million bushels, reflecting sharply lower supplies and higher expected prices. Corn used for ethanol is lowered, based on data through November from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production during December as indicated by the Energy Information Administration. Feed and residual use is reduced 50 million bushels to 5.650 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September-November quarter. With supply falling more than use, corn stocks are lowered 150 million bushels to 1.552 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised to $4.20 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2020/21 is forecast down 9.3 million tons to 1,438.5 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production and consumption, and smaller ending stocks. Foreign corn production is reduced with declines for Argentina and Brazil more than offsetting increases for China and India. For Argentina, dryness during December reduces yield prospects for early-planted corn in key central growing areas. Brazil is lowered reflecting reduced yield expectations for first-crop corn in southern Brazil.
WHEAT: The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat this month is for stable supplies, higher domestic use, unchanged exports, and lower ending stocks. Feed and residual use is raised 25 million bushels to 125 million on lower-than-expected second-quarter stocks reported in today’s NASS Grain Stocks report. Seed use is up 1 million bushels to 63 million, reflecting 2020/21 wheat planted area released today in the NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report.
Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are reduced 26 million bushels to 836 million, down 19 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is raised $0.15 per bushel to $4.85 based on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.