Daily Market Summary for July 20th...
Updated Monday thru Friday around 4:00 PM CT
10-Day & 60-Day Market Trendlines
Daily Market Summary for July 20th...
So far for Friday negotiated cash trading in the Texas Panhandle has been at a standstill. In Kansas and Nebraska negotiated cash trading has been inactive on very light demand. In the Western Cornbelt cash trading has been slow on light demand. A few early dressed trades have moved at 180.00. However, not enough trades for a full market trend. Last week in the Southern Plains live cash trades moved at 111.00. For the prior week in Nebraska live cash trades were from 109.50-111.00 and dressed trades were from 173.00-175.00 on a light test. In the Western Cornbelt the last fully reported market was two weeks ago with live trades mostly at 112.00 and dressed trades ranging from 175.00-180.00.
Confirmed: 5,044 Week Ago: 3,700 Year Ago: 38,738
Formula Net - Dressed Steers & Heifers
Head count priced today: 19,100
Weighted avg weight: 848.00
Weighted avg net price: 176.33
Alberta Beef Producers Daily Report:
Alberta direct cattle sales Thursday saw light trade develop with prices weakening from Wednesday to Thursday. Dressed sales were reported at 255.00 delivered. Sales are at the bottom end of last week's trading range. Buyers were indicating cattle that they bought this week were being scheduled for the first half of August delivery.
Livestock Slaughter under Federal Inspection:
CATTLE CALVES HOGS SHEEP
Friday (est 119,000 2,000 434,000 6,000
Week ago (est) 118,000 2,000 438,000 6,000
Year ago (act) 115,000 2,000 425,000 6,000
Week to date (est) 595,000 10,000 2,234,000 36,000
Last Week (est) 597,000 10,000 2,249,000 36,000
Last Year (act) 572,000 9,000 2,157,000 37,000
Saturday (est 40,000 0 148,000 1,000
Week ago (est) 53,000 0 26,000 0
Year ago (act) 45,000 0 47,000 0
Week to date (est) 635,000 10,000 2,382,000 37,000
Last Week (est) 650,000 10,000 2,275,000 36,000
Last Year* (act) 618,000 10,000 2,203,000 37,000
2018 YTD 17,918,00 294,000 67,189,000 1,097,000
2017 *YTD 17,384,00 274,000 65,247,000 1,065,000
Percent change +3.1% +7.4% +3.0% +3.0%
Boxed beef cutout values steady to weak on light to moderate demand and light offerings. Select and Choice rib, chuck, round, and loin cuts steady. Beef trimmings sharply higher on good demand and moderate offerings.
Cutout Values... Choice Select
Current Cutout Values: 204.17 197.00
Change from prior day: -0.32 +0.08
Choice/Select spread: 7.17
Live cattle futures saw losses of 10 to 40 cents in most contracts on Friday. Nearby was Aug up 2.5 cents on the day and 4.18% higher on the week. Feeder cattle futures were down a nickel to 77.5 cents on the day. The CME feeder cattle index was down 29 cents from the previous day at $148.02 on 7/19. Estimated FI cattle slaughter is at 635,000 head through Saturday. That is up 17,000 from the same week last year but down 15,000 head vs. last week. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 32 cents to $204.17, while Select boxes were 8 cents higher at $197.00. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report showed placements 1.3% higher than last year at 1.793 million head, with marketings at 2.006 million head, up 0.85%. July cattle on feed was shown at a record for the month at 11.282 million head, up 4.26% from last year. The bi-annual Cattle Inventory report saw all cattle and calves 1% larger than last July 1 at 103.2 million head. Beef cows were up 0.9% with replacement heifers down 2.1% at 4.6 million head. Light cash trade is being picked up at $113 in NE on Friday afternoon, with $113 bids in TX.
CME Feeder Cattle Index: 148.02… -0.29
August Live Cattle Futures: 108.92… +0.02
October Live Cattle Futures: 110.25… -0.40
December Live Cattle Futures: 114.20… -0.22
August Feeder Cattle Futures: 153.67… -0.78
September Feeder Cattle Futures: 154.55… -0.22
November Feeder Cattle Futures: 154.77… -0.15
August Hog Futures: 66.45… -0.80
Nearby Crude Oil Futures Contract: 70.46… +1.00
National Grain Market Summary:
Compared to last week, cash bids for wheat, corn, and sorghum were mixed, while soybeans were higher. Weather is a key factor in crop condition this time of year, but the futures market doesn't appear to be concerned with it this year as yields in recent years haven't suffered despite weather conditions. USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 25.2 and 50.9 million bushels respectively, a neutral showing for the week that put total corn shipments at 1.884 billion bushels, down 3% in 2017-18 from a year ago. Corn has seven more weeks to reach USDA's 2.400 billion bushel estimate and will probably fall short of the goal. Last week's export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 9.3 and 22.2 million bushels respectively, a neutral combination that shows soybeans struggling to keep up with USDA's new export estimate of 2.085 billion bushels. Last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 11.0 and 16.0 million bushels respectively, more than last week's amounts, but still a long way below USDA's expectations for 2018-19. Wheat was mixed from 23 cents lower to 23 1/4 cents higher. Corn was mixed from 11 1/2 cents lower to 10 1/2 cents higher. Sorghum was mixed from 23 cents lower to 10 cents higher. Soybeans were 6 1/4 to 17 1/4 cents higher.
September Corn Futures: 3.5525… +0.0400
August Soybean Futures: 8.4975… +0.0375
September Wheat Futures: 5.1600… +0.1175
Kansas City Corn: 3.60… +0.01
Kansas City Soybeans: 8.48… +0.04
Kansas City Wheat: 5.39… +0.12
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,057.99… -6.51
S & P 500: 2,801.84… -2.71
NASDAQ: 7,820.20… -5.10
U.S. Dollar Index: 94.43… -0.72
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week 158,300 78,700 5,400 242,400
Last Week 170,100 109,700 324,500 604,300
Last Year 121,300 67,100 234,900 423,300
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold uneven; from 3.00 lower to 2.00 higher. Demand was good on moderate supply this week as the calendar is in the middle of the dog days of summer. Support in the cattle complex was evident this week with the sharply higher futures on Wednesday. The front four months of feeder cattle futures gained 2.95 to 3.48 on the week as the August and September contracts are at similar levels last seen in early March. August Live Cattle is trying to get some divergence and get closer to the October contract price and made a move of roughly 1.50 in the October's direction this week. It appears the packers look to be short bought leading to anticipation of a higher fed cattle market this week after their procurement last week only tallied 55K nationwide last week. As of Friday afternoon, major trading has not been established yet, however market participants are expecting higher prices as packers replenish much needed inventory as cattle slaughter totaled 635K this week and 650K last week. Feeder cattle receipts typically are reduced this time of year, however the auction volumes on this report are 37K head above a year ago for this week and 20K for last week's similar comparison.
Fed Cattle Slaughter for the month of June is 0.6 percent above a year ago and 6.9 percent above the previous five year average. Additionally, total cow slaughter is 2.3 percent above a year ago and 12.1 percent above the previous five year average. Carcass weights for week ending July 7 were reported at 867 lbs for steers; 1 lb higher than a year ago but 2 lbs below the 5 year average. Carcass weights being reported in line with historical numbers bodes well for the industry as it indicates that front-end supplies have been marketed aggressively by feedyard managers. In that respect, they have been in the process of forward thinking for several months now by utilizing out-front sales to manage risk.
Friday's Cattle on Feed report was neutral this month as on feed reported at 104 percent of a year ago; placements and marketings at 101 percent respectively. The On Feed number of 11,282,000 head is the largest July 1 number since the data series began in 1996. The semi-annual Cattle Inventory was also released on Friday and reported a total herd inventory of 103,200,000 head; 101 percent of a year ago. The 2018 calf crop was estimated this year at 36,500,000; 102 percent of a year ago. Boxed-beef prices seemed to have found support at current levels. Compared to last Friday, Choice closed the week 0.03 higher at 204.17 and Select closed 0.63 higher at 197.00, putting the Choice-Select spread at 7.17. Auction volume this week included 50 percent weighing over 600 lbs and 43 percent heifers.