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The Cattle Range Weekly Market Summary contains a fairly comprehensive comparison of the past week's prices from around the country in comparison to the previous week, month, 6 months ago, & 1 year ago.  The data is compiled from a variety of sources and is organized to give producers additional insight in determining market movement and trends. - "Click Here" to Sign Up A Friend or Associate to receive the Weekly Market Summary.
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Market Summary for the week ending November 13th:
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The Cattle Range 10-Day Market Trend:
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An indicator of overall cattle market strength.
The angle indicates direction & velocity of the trend.
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The Trendline is based on daily market factors for the past 10 days.
The daily factors are weighted calculations of the cumulative Gain/(Loss)
of 10 major market factors compared to the previous trading day.
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National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Weekly Summary:
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RECEIPTS:       Auctions    Direct    Video/Internet     Total
This Week        381,500    31,400        37,100        450,000 
Last Week        317,900    40,200        15,300        373,400 
Last Year          345,800    44,500         5,600        395,900
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Compared to last week, long-weaned feeder calves over 600 lbs and limited sales of true yearling feeders sold weak to 2.00 lower with the full declines most prevalent late in the week.  Short-weaned feeder calves weighing from 550-700 lbs traded 2.00-4.00 lower with further discounts for undesirable quality or conditioning imposed.  Price trends for stocker calves under 550 lbs were very uneven, ranging from 3.00 lower to 3.00 higher with the full range being represented in the Southeastern calf markets that are usually flourishing this time of year with tighter numbers and abundant orders for rugged crossbreds that possess a bit more age than they show.  This week’s feeder pressure was mostly tied to the CME Board as both live and feeder contracts suffered losses on every trading session except Friday. 

Fed cattle sales also pressured the feeder market with prices 2.00-4.00 lower from 83.00-85.00 live and 130.00-132.00 dressed.  The lower finished cattle market was a bit of a surprise to many cattle feeders, some of whom turned down much better bids late last week.  Just a month ago, packers jumped out and aggressively started pushing the market that eventually gained up to 7.00 in just three weeks amid monster-sized cattle on the showlists.  The average dressed steer carcass set an all-time record high the week ending October 10th at 870 lbs, but fell 19 lbs by the week ending the 31st.  But, beef demand is lacking and we are heading into the leanest time of year as consumers turn their tastes toward white meat for the holiday season. 

The supply of middle-weight calves from 550-700 lbs currently outweighs the demand which is evident by the wide price spreads within narrow weight ranges.  Availability of these “big” calves is ample enough that buyers can obtain exactly the type of cattle that they want without pushing the market.  The steer and heifer spread continues to widen and it’s getting late enough in the year that most orders can be filled with weaned offerings, leaving little demand for those that are not.  Lightweight stocker calf trading is undergoing the unevenness that usually comes a month earlier as unseasonably warm temperatures this past week and the wide spread between daytime highs and nighttime lows is taking its toll on health conditions. 

Wheat pasture is ready, but many backgrounders are having to re-straighten up earlier purchases that they thought were ready to go.  This resulted in less demand for lightweight stockers this week, but wheat pastures are rank in most areas of the Southern Plains and more calves will be needed to fully stock them.  Though, handling facilities are few on wheat fields and these short days do not provide enough daylight for backgrounders and caretakers to pre-condition after turn-out.  So, calf buying could lag until temperatures become more constant after a hard freeze – which could coincide with the completion of harvest and new buying interests from the north.  This week’s reported auction volume included just 33 percent over 600 lbs and 41 percent heifers. 
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Federal Reserve Says Midwest Farm Economy Weakens:
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The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City says lower income contributed to a weaker farm economy during the third quarter in some Midwest and Western states. The Fed's survey of banks in the 10th district says falling crop prices and weak demand for meat contributed to lower income. As a result of the lower income, bankers reported the lowest loan repayment rates since 2003, and the number of loan extensions jumped. 

The 10th Federal Reserve District in Kansas City covers Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Colorado, northern New Mexico and western Missouri. Across the district farmland values remained steady from the second quarter to the third quarter, but compared to a year ago, farmland values were down 2 percent to 4 percent.
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U.S. Unemployment Rate:
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Cattle Buyer Joke of the Week:
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After a disastrous night in the casino, Bart went up to the bar and ordered seven double shots of whiskey.  The bartender poured the drinks and then watched in amazement as Bart downed all seven drinks in a matter of seconds. 

The bartender asked, "Hey buddy, what's the hurry?" 

With his eyes still watering from his effort, Bart said, "You'd drink fast too if you had what I have." 

With genuine concern, the bartender inquired, "What do you have?" 

Bart swallowed hard, looked up and down the bar, and then said weakly, "Eighty-seven cents." 
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Est. Weekly Meat Production Under Federal Inspection:
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Total red meat production under Federal inspection for the week ending Saturday, November 14, 2009 was estimated at 963.7 million lbs. according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Marketing Service. This was 0.8 percent lower than a week ago and 0.4 percent higher than a year ago.  Cumulative meat production for the year to date was 2.5 percent lower compared to the previous year.
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Bullish/Bearish Consensus:
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The theory behind the "Bullish/Bearish Consensus" indicator is when the public reaches a consensus, they are usually wrong:
  • They get too bullish after prices have risen, and too bearish after they have already fallen.
Because of this tendency, there are often extremes in opinion right before major changes in trend:
  • When the public reaches a bullish extreme, i.e., a great majority thinks prices will keep rising, then prices often decline instead. 
  • And when they become too bearish, then prices tend to rise.
So when Public Opinion moves above the red dotted line in the chart, it means that compared to other readings over the past year, you're seeing a statistically extreme value.  You also want to look at the absolute level of Opinion, too - if it's at 90%, then there's no question we're seeing an historic level of bullish opinion.  Watch for readings above 80% (or especially 90%) to spot those dangerous times when the public is overly enthusiastic about a commodity.

Conversely, when Public Opinion moves below the green dotted line, then the public is too pessimistic about the commodity's prospects for further gains compared to their opinion over the past year.  Looking for absolute readings under 20% (or especially 10%) often indicates an upturn in the market.
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Economic News:
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  • The number of people filing initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 502,000 in the week ended Nov. 7, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Initial jobless claims have hovered above 500,000 for 52 straight weeks. Economists expected initial claims to drop to about 510,000. Continuing state claims declined 139,000 to a seasonally adjusted 5.63 million, the lowest since March.

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  • Euro-zone gross domestic product expanded 0.4% in the third quarter, returning to growth after five consecutive quarters of shrinking output. Compared to the the third quarter of last year, GDP fell by 4.1%. Economists had forecast a 0.6% quarterly rise and a 3.9% year-on-year decline.

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  • The U.S. trade deficit widened by 18.2% in September to $36.5 billion, the Commerce Department said Friday. The trade deficit was above the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists of a deficit of $32.0 billion. This is the biggest percentage increase in the monthly trade gap since February 1999. The data suggests that third quarter growth will be revised down from its initial estimate of a 3.5% gain. Imports rose faster than exports in September. Trade activity has recovered to levels not seen since the financial crisis hit in the fall of 2008. The U.S. trade deficit with China widened to $22.1 billion, the largest since last October. The deficit for the year-to-date now totals $274.58 billion, down from $551.44 billion in the first nine months of 2008. 

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  • Consumer sentiment pulled back in early November, according to media reports on Friday of the Reuters/University of Michigan index. The consumer sentiment index fell to 66.0 from 70.6 in October. The decrease was unexpected. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for sentiment to rise to 71.8. After hitting 73.5 in September, the index has now fallen in two straight months.
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Cow Slaughter:
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Total cow slaughter for the year through the week ending October 31st is near a year earlier, down only 0.5 percent. Dairy cow slaughter for the period is up 11.9 percent and beef cow slaughter is down 8.8 percent. It is expected both the beef and dairy cow inventory on January 1, 2010 to be down a little from a year earlier. 
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Looking Ahead:
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  • During the next 5 days (November 11-15), an active weather pattern should impact much of the country.  As the remnants of Ida continue up the coast of North Carolina and into the Mid-Atlantic, precipitation amounts should be quite large, with 6 or more inches not out of the question.  The next system coming onshore in the Pacific Northwest will have a trough moving through much of the country, bringing a good chance of precipitation for the Rocky Mountains and Plains states.  Temperatures during this time will be above normal for the eastern half of the United States in front of this trough, and cooler than normal behind it.  Temperatures should average well above normal in the northern Plains, where departures of 6-9 degrees Fahrenheit above normal are expected.  Behind the trough, temperatures are going to be 0-3 degrees Fahrenheit below normal. 
  • The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day forecast (November 16-20) establishes a ridge over much of the United States, with temperatures expected to be well above normal for the northern Rocky Mountains, Plains, Great Lakes and New England regions and below normal over Alaska and portions of northern California.  Dry conditions look likely over the Plains and Rocky Mountains and northern portions of Alaska.  Along the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley, wetter than normal conditions are probable during this time.
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Representative Sales of Cow & Pairs - This Week:
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  • Oklahoma City, OK
    • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 2  2-7 yrs 1000-1250 lbs 3-7 months 560.00-710.000; 9-10 yrs 4-6 months 360.00-480.00.
  • El Reno, OK
    • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-8 yrs 1000-1450 lbs 5-8 months 600.00-810.00; 9-10 yrs 1000-1200 lbs 7-8 months 550.00-650.00.  Medium and Large 2  2-7 yrs 900-1300 lbs 2-7 months 450.00-650.00. 
    • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-8 yrs 1000-1350 lbs w/110-175 lb calves 735.00-970.00; 7-10 yrs 1200-1400 lbs w/100-150 lb calves 630.00-720.00. 
  • Woodward, OK
    • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  1000-1200 lbs 4-6 months 1000.00-1175.00; 3-6 yrs 1100-1400 lbs 4-8 months 1000.00-1150.00.  Medium and Large 2 
    • 1000-1150 lbs 5-6 months 800.00-950.00; 3-7 yrs 1000-1500 lbs 2-8 months 825.00 950.00; 7-10 yrs 1100-1325 lbs 4-7 months 550.00-710.00. 
    • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-6 yrs w/150-375 lb calves 1110.00-1325.00.  Medium and Large 2  3-9 yrs 1200-1400 lbs w/100-350 lb calves 900.00-1075.00. 
  • Joplin, MO 
    • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2 yrs to short and solid mouth 2nd-3rd stage 950-1340 lbs 625.00-850.00, pkg. blk/blk-white face 900.00, 1st stage 4-6 yrs 1090-1300 lbs 650.00-675.00; short and solid mouth to aged 2nd-3rd stage 1070-1245 lbs 415.00-585.00, 1st stage short and solid mouth 1085-1208 lbs 425.00-485.00.  Large 1-2  3-7 yrs 2nd-3rd stage 1400-1525 lbs 700.00-800.00.  Medium and Large 2  2-6 yrs 2nd-3rd stage 875-1150 lbs 525.00-650.00.  Medium 1-2  2-7 yrs 2nd-3rd stage 950-1050 lbs 500.00-700.00, pkg. blacks 3rd stage 865.00. 
    • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  2 yrs to short and solid mouth 1065-1335 lbs w/baby to 385 lb calves 700.00-900.00; broken mouth to aged 1090-1100 lbs w/baby to 175 lb calves 585.00-650.00.  Medium and Large 2  5-7 yrs 1025-1095 lbs w/baby to 185 lb calves 625.00-850.00; short and solid mouth 1075-1100 lbs w/ baby to 350 lb calves 550.00-600.00. Medium 1-2  4-5 yrs 900-1000 lbs w/baby to 275 lb calves 675.00-850.00; short  and solid mouth to aged 1000-1040 lbs w/125-185 lb calves 550.00-675.00.
  • Springfield, MO
    • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2 yrs to short and solid mouth 2nd-3rd stage 960-1350 lbs 650.00-875.00, 1st stage 1080-1300 lbs 750.00-825.00; short and solid mouth to aged 2nd-3rd stage 1070-1270 lbs 520.00-625.00.  Large 1-2  3-7 yrs 2nd-3rd stage 1360-1740 lbs 725.00-900.00, short and solid mouth to aged 1390-1520 lbs 600.00-700.00.  Medium and Large 2  2 yrs to short and solid mouth 2nd-3rd stage 900-1250 lbs 525.00-685.00, 1st stage few 1100-1140 lbs 450.00.  Medium 1-2  3-7 yrs 2nd-3rd stage 825-1040 lbs 575.00-800.00, 1st stage 985-1030 lbs 525.00-575.00; short and solid mouth to aged 2nd-3rd stage 985-1030 lbs 435.00-550.00. 
    • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-6 yrs 1090-1335 lbs w/baby to 400 lb calves 900.00-1100.00; short and solid mouth to aged 1160-1355 lbs w/150-285 lbs 660.00-810.00.  Large 1-2  6 yrs 1390-1740 lbs w/155-325 lb calves 1010.00-1075.00.  Medium and Large 2  6 yrs pkg. 1160 lbs w/170-180 lb calves 685.00.  Medium 1-2  3 yrs to short and solid mouth 775-1045 lbs w/baby to 185 lb calves 700.00-900.00; broken mouth pkg. 935 lbs w/155 lb calves 560.00.
  • West Plains, MO
    • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-6 yrs 965-1325 lbs 2nd-3rd stage 660.00-760.00; lot 7 yrs to mostly short-solid mouth 1086 lbs 2nd-3rd stage 650.00, few first-calf heifers 865-1050 lbs 2nd-3rd stage 610.00-660.00.  Large 1-2  5-6 yrs 1400-1600 lbs 2nd-3rd stage 755.00-770.00, few blks young 2-4 yrs 1100-1450 lbs 2nd-mostly 3rd stage 870.00-900.00, pkg short-solids 1400 lbs 2nd stage 670.00.  Medium and Large 1-2  3-7 yrs 1040-1360 lbs 3rd stage 580.00-650.00, several 2nd stage 900-1115 lbs 500.00-625.00; Short-solid mouth 1000-1215 lbs 2nd stage 510.00-600.00; Broken-mouth 1000-1300 lbs 2nd-3rd stage 475.00-550.00. 
    • Pairs:  Medium and Large 2  3-6 yrs 1000-1200 lbs w/250-400 lbs calves 860.00-975.00; few 3-5 yrs 1000-1175 lbs w/baby to 150 lb calves 880.00-910.00, small pkg short-solid 1250-1300 lbs w/150-200 lb calves 830.00; few 5-7 yrs 1100-1250 lbs w/baby to 200 lb calves 760.00-785.00, small lot mixed 7 yrs to short-solid 1100 lbs w/150-200 lb calves 660.00.
  • Crockett, TX
    • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2 young 980-1155 lbs 5-8 months 670.00-780.00; middle aged 1125-1335 lbs 5-8 months 700.00-850.00, fancy 1210-1375 lbs 6-7 months 900.00-1090.00; aged 945-1270 lbs 2-7 months 510.00-530.00. 
    • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2 young 970-1360 lbs w/160-300 lb calves 750.00-870.00, fancy 1235-1425 lbs w/180-370 lb calves 920.00-990.00; middle aged 1105-1230 lbs w/140-350 lb calves 720.00-840.00, fancy 1275-1535 lbs w/270-400 lb calves 880.00-950.00.
  • Riverton, WY
    • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  Heifers lot 972 lbs 950.00; several 750.00-885.00, few 625.00-700.00; Young 990-1595 lbs 700.00-875.00, few 500.00-660.00; Middle Aged (Short Solid) 1075-1750 lbs 625.00-760.00, few 475.00-610.00; Aged (Short Term) 975-1385 lbs lot 1208 lbs 650.00, several 450.00-525.00, few 350.00.
  • Southeast
    • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  3-7 yrs 850-1250 lbs 2nd-3rd stage 625.00-775.00, few 850.00-925.00; 8-10 yrs 850-1200 lbs 2nd-3rd stage 500.00-650.00. 
    • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  3-7 yrs 800-1200 lbs w/100-200 lb calves 700.00-800.00; w/200-300 lb calves 800.00-900.00, few 1000.00-1150.00.  Small and  Medium 1-2  5-10 yrs 750-950 lbs w/100-200 lb calves 575.00-675.00, few down to 530.00.
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Representative Sales of Cow & Pairs - Last Week
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  • Oklahoma City Stockyards
    • Medium and Large 1-2  1-4 yr old 1000-1175 lbs 5-8 months bred avg-hi black 700.00-800.00; 1-4 yr old 925-1075 lbs 4-7 months bred avg black 600.00-690.00; 5 yr old 1175 lbs 7 months bred hi black 850.00; 6-7 yr old 1050-1350 lbs 5-8 months bred avg black 600.00-710.00; 8-9 yr old 1000-1250 lbs 2-5 months bred avg quality 500.00-515.00. 
    • Pairs: Medium and Large 1-2  5-6 yr old 1050-1100 lb cows w/200-225 lb calves avg quality 700.00-740.00; 8 yr old 1125 lb cows w/150 lb calves avg quality 620.00.
  • El Reno, Ok
    • Medium and Large 1-2  2-4 yr old 1100-1200 lbs 4-6 months bred hi black 730.00-840.00; 2-5 yr old 1000-1200 lbs 3-5 months bred avg black 610.00-710.00; 2-4 yr old 1000-1100 lbs 2-4 months bred avg quality 460.00-560.00; 5-8 yr old 1100-1300 lbs 5-7 months bred avg black 670.00-760.00; 7-10 yr old 1100-1350 lbs 5-8 months bred avg quality 530.00-635.00. 
    • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  2 yr old 900 lb cows w/225 lb calves avg black 760.00; 6-8 yr old 1000-1200 lb cows w/220-250 lb calves hi quality 740.00-790.00; 9-10 yr old 1100-1200 lb cows w/150-300 lb calves avg quality 670.00.
  • Joplin, MO
    • Medium and Large 1-2  2 yrs to short and solid mouth 2nd and 3rd stage 895-1365 lbs most 625.00-850.00, several black and black white face from herd reductions and dispersals 875.00-935.00, 1st stage 1075-1200 lbs 575.00-675.00; short and solid mouth to aged 2nd and 3rd stage 1095-1300 lbs 500.00-575.00. Large 1-2  4 yrs to short and solid mouth 2nd and 3rd stage 1400-1500 lbs 725.00-935.00, 1st stage 2 yr 1250 lb indiv. 850.00. Medium and Large 2  2 yrs to short and solid mouth 2nd stage 1065-1200 lbs 500.00-610.00. Medium 1-2  2-4 yrs 1st stage 850-975 lbs 450.00-560.00; short and solid mouth to age 2nd and 3rd stage 1000-1025 lbs 475.00-500.00. 
    • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  2 yrs to short and solid mouth 975-1350 lb cows w/babies to 295 lb calves and a few rebred 775.00-825.00; broken mouth to aged 1100-1200 lb cows w/babies to 145 lb calves 620.00-635.00. Medium 1-2  5-7 yrs 800-1050 lb cows w/100-160 lb calves 650.00-750.00; broken mouth to aged pkg. 1035 lb cows w/160-175 lb calves 550.00.
  • West Plains, MO
    • Average and better quality 3-6 few 7 yrs 1000-1200 lbs 2nd and 3rd stage 740.00-850.00 per head, couple 5 yr old indiv 1190 lbs 3rd stage 875.00-895.00, few 2-5 yrs 815-1225 lbs 1st and 2nd stage 660.00-725.00, lot 5-7 yrs 976 lbs 1st thru 3rd stage 750.00, small pkg short-solids 1250 lbs 3rd stage 710.00, indiv Large 1  6 yrs 1545 lbs 3rd stage 790.00 Average and below quality few Large 1-2  5-6 yr 1370-1550 lbs 2nd and 3rd stage 630.00-750.00.  Medium and Large 1-2  3-7 yrs 1100-1275 lbs 2nd and 3rd stage 650.00-780.00, some thin 950-1050 lbs 600.00-650.00.  Short-solid mouth cows 1100-11350 lbs 2nd and 3rd stage 570.00-630.00, some mixed 7 yrs to short-solid 1330-1355 lbs 2nd and 3rd stage 680.00-710.00.  Few Broken-mouth including a few low quality short-solid mouth 975-1200 lbs 2nd stage 450.00-550.00.
    • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  few scattered singles average and below quality 7 yrs to mostly short-solid mouth 1185-1350 lbs with babies to 235 lb calves 750.00-865.00 per pair, only a handful of average and better quality 2-5 yrs 1150-1425 lbs bred-back 1st and 2nd stage with big 400-450 lb calves 1125.00-1275.00.
  • Roswell, NM
    • Medium and Large 1-2: Young to Middle Age 950-1150 lb cows 3-8 months bred 560.00-710.00, 910-1155 lb cows 1-3 months bred 560.00-730.00; Middle Age to Aged 1025-1245 lb cows 3-6 months bred 480.00-600.00; Aged 810-1160 lb cows 3-8 months bred 335.00-480.00.  First Calf Heifers: 649-855 lbs 1-8 months bred 505.00-545.00. 
    • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2 Young to Middle Age 970-1100 lb cows w/150-250 lb calves 630.00-790.00; Middle Age to Aged 950-1150 lb cows w/150-250 lb calves 610.00-750.00; Aged 775-1225 lb cows w/100-400 lb calves 540.00-670.00.
  • Ft. Collins, CO
    • Medium and Large 1-2 Heifers 790-1350 lbs 4 months bred 600.00-690.00; Young 1175-1620 lbs 3-4 months bred 720.00-780.00; Middle Age 1280-1465 lbs 3-4 months bred 560.00-675.00; Aged 1205-1570 lbs 4 months bred 525.00-640.00.  Medium and Large 2 Heifers 780-805 lbs 4 months bred 450.00-575.00; Young 1175-1205 lbs 3-4 months bred 590.00-630.00; Middle Age 1150-1325 lbs 2-4 months bred 360.00-480.00; Aged 1080-1280 lbs 2-5 months bred 350.00-490.00. 
    • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2 Young 1370 lb w/210 lb calves 825.00; Middle Age 1135-1470 lbs w/235-550 lb calves 875.00-925.00; Aged 990-1180 lbs w/194-205 lb calves 425.00-500.00.
  • Riverton, WY
    • Medium and Large 1 Heifers 845-1040 lbs 800.00-825.00; Young 1050-1235 lbs mostly 750.00-825.00, several 625.00-700.00; Middle Aged (Short Solids) 1310-1380 lbs 625.00-700.00. 
    • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1 individual 765 lb heifer w/250 lb calf 500.00; Middle Aged (Short Solid) 845 lb cow w/ 65 lb calf (Longhorn) 325.00.
  • Southeast
    • Medium and Large 1-2 Young to Middle Age 850-1250 lbs 6-9 months bred 675.00-775.00, 3-6 months bred 550.00-650.00; Middle Age to Aged 850-1200 lbs 3-9 months bred 450.00-550.00. 
    • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2 Young to Middle Age 800-1200 lb cows w/100-200 lb calves 650.00-750.00, w/200-300 lb calves 800.00-900.00, few up to 1050.00. 
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Feedyard Closeouts:
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  • Typical closeout for steers sold this week: ($74.27)
  • TCR's Projected Profit/(Loss) based on the futures when Placed on Feed: ($88.42)
  • TCR's Projected closeout for steers placed on feed this week: ($17.18)
CATTLE FEEDING RETURNS REMAIN IN THE RED:
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Red ink for cattle feeders has continued in 2009.  On the heels of the worst cattle feeding returns ever in 2008, projected annual cash returns this year will likely be the second poorest ever.  The losses in commercial cattle feeding are the largest since the industry was born in the 1960s.

After the first quarter of 2009, the average per head loss on steers did moderate and was much smaller than the well over $100 plus per steer losses posted earlier in the year. Losses for average performing cattle in feedlots are forecast to continue for the balance of the year.
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Slaughter Cattle:
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Trading was slow in all reporting regions with very light demand to close the week. Not enough sales today for an adequate market trend. For the week live sales in the Texas Panhandle sold 2.00 to 3.00 lower at 85.00. Live sales in Kansas sold 3.50 to 4.00 lower from 83.00 to mostly 84.00. Dressed sales in Nebraska sold 2.00 to 4.00 lower from 130.00-132.00 and live sales sold 2.00 to 3.00 lower from 83.00 to 84.00. Live sales in Colorado sold 1.50 to 3.50 lower at 83.50. Dressed and live sales in Iowa/MN sold 2.00 to 4.00 lower from 130.00-132.00 and at 80.00-82.00 respectively.

The average live weight of cattle slaughtered in the Texas Panhandle for the  week ending 11-07-2009 was 1263 lbs with 44 percent heifers compared to 1275 lbs and 42 percent heifers the previous week and 1279 lbs and 43 percent heifers the same week a year ago. 
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Market Overview:
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Carcass weights took a nose dive the end of October. From a seasonal high of 845 lbs., weights dropped to 828 lbs., well under prior year. This reduction, caused primarily by poor feeding conditions in the corn belt, is expected to reduce beef tonnage by 8.6 million pounds. This represents the equivalent of 10,000 cattle in the weekly slaughter. 

Texas and Kansas joined the northern regions in selling cattle sharply lower on Thursday. Cattle sold mostly at $85 in moderate volumes in Texas and $83.50 in Kansas. Northern cattle sold $2 lower on Wednesday as cattle owners look at a futures board that has been careening lower. Packers purchased cattle for $132 in the beef and $83.50 live and volumes were moderate. The normally weak demand for the holiday season won out as retailers prepare for Thanksgiving. 

Box prices were weak in late week trading. The dollar continues to weaken sending most commodities, cattle excepted, higher. Beef has found little support from retail interest and has drifted lower all week. Choice cuts were quoted at $139 and select at $132 for a $7 spread.   

Stocker and feeder cattle fell and some suspect they may move into the 80s following rumors of a major scandal in the feeder auction trade. Futures have been leading the way downward and cash markets have followed. Feeder steers were off $2-4 while lighter calves sold up to $4-6 lower. A 750# steer was quoted at $93 in the southern plains. Cattle on feed numbers are expected to show an increase over prior year in the next cattle on feed report.
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USDA Crop Report:
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Tuesday's  USDA report for corn was considered neutral with the domestic yield reduced to 162.9 bushels per acre and production to 12.92 billion bushels which were in line with expectations.  The carryover was listed at 1.625 billion bushels which was below expectations.  Global carryover was lower coming in nearly 4 million tons below last month at 132.41 million tonnes.

The Soybeans Supply/Demand report was higher than expected which was negative.  Global ending stocks were up to 57.39 million tons.  Soybean yields came in at 43.3 bushels per acre which was 0.6 bushels above the average trade estimate.  The production number was at 3.319 billion bushels as compared to the average trade estimate of 3.262 billion bushels.  The carryover was up to 370 million versus the average trade estimate of 236 million bushels. 

The USDA numbers for wheat were negative with the global carryover coming in at 188.28 million tonnes. The domestic carryover was at 885 million bushels as compared to the average trade estimate of 870 million bushels and last months number of 864 million bushels.
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National Grain Summary:
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Friday: Wheat closed higher as corn was mostly unchanged with soybeans closing slightly lower.  Corn was unchanged as export sales were low at 488,500 tonnes with a chance of rain in the forecast which limits the downside.  Soybeans traded higher before selling off at the close.  Soybean exports were bullish at 1,272,500 tones.  Wheat exports were in line at 412,500 tonnes, closing higher as the dollar also closed lower.

Corn prices were lower yesterday but moved higher in overnight trading. USDA released the crop report and ending stock estimates this week. Corn yields were reduced from 164 bushels per acre to 163. Ending stocks at 1.625 bushels were in line with forecasts. The government raised price forecasts 30 cents a bushel.  Corn is now trading a 30 cent premium basis to the September contract in the southern plains.  Corn is now pricing into most rations at $7.75 cwt.
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