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| The Cattle Range Weekly Market Summary contains a fairly comprehensive comparison of the past week's prices from around the country in comparison to the previous week, month, 6 months ago, & 1 year ago. The data is compiled from a variety of sources and is organized to give producers additional insight in determining market movement and trends. - "Click Here" to Sign Up A Friend or Associate to receive the Weekly Market Summary. | ||
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| Market Summary for the week ending November 13th: |
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| The Cattle Range 10-Day Market Trend: |
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| An indicator
of overall cattle market strength.
The angle indicates direction & velocity of the trend. |
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| The Trendline
is based on daily market factors for the past 10 days.
The daily factors are weighted calculations of the cumulative Gain/(Loss) of 10 major market factors compared to the previous trading day. |
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| National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Weekly Summary: |
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| RECEIPTS:
Auctions Direct Video/Internet
Total
This Week 381,500 31,400 37,100 450,000 Last Week 317,900 40,200 15,300 373,400 Last Year 345,800 44,500 5,600 395,900 |
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| Compared to
last week, long-weaned feeder calves over 600 lbs and limited sales of
true yearling feeders sold weak to 2.00 lower with the full declines most
prevalent late in the week. Short-weaned feeder calves weighing from
550-700 lbs traded 2.00-4.00 lower with further discounts for undesirable
quality or conditioning imposed. Price trends for stocker calves
under 550 lbs were very uneven, ranging from 3.00 lower to 3.00 higher
with the full range being represented in the Southeastern calf markets
that are usually flourishing this time of year with tighter numbers and
abundant orders for rugged crossbreds that possess a bit more age than
they show. This week’s feeder pressure was mostly tied to the CME
Board as both live and feeder contracts suffered losses on every trading
session except Friday.
Fed cattle sales also pressured the feeder market with prices 2.00-4.00 lower from 83.00-85.00 live and 130.00-132.00 dressed. The lower finished cattle market was a bit of a surprise to many cattle feeders, some of whom turned down much better bids late last week. Just a month ago, packers jumped out and aggressively started pushing the market that eventually gained up to 7.00 in just three weeks amid monster-sized cattle on the showlists. The average dressed steer carcass set an all-time record high the week ending October 10th at 870 lbs, but fell 19 lbs by the week ending the 31st. But, beef demand is lacking and we are heading into the leanest time of year as consumers turn their tastes toward white meat for the holiday season. The supply of middle-weight calves from 550-700 lbs currently outweighs the demand which is evident by the wide price spreads within narrow weight ranges. Availability of these “big” calves is ample enough that buyers can obtain exactly the type of cattle that they want without pushing the market. The steer and heifer spread continues to widen and it’s getting late enough in the year that most orders can be filled with weaned offerings, leaving little demand for those that are not. Lightweight stocker calf trading is undergoing the unevenness that usually comes a month earlier as unseasonably warm temperatures this past week and the wide spread between daytime highs and nighttime lows is taking its toll on health conditions. Wheat pasture is ready, but many backgrounders are having to re-straighten up earlier purchases that they thought were ready to go. This resulted in less demand for lightweight stockers this week, but wheat pastures are rank in most areas of the Southern Plains and more calves will be needed to fully stock them. Though, handling facilities are few on wheat fields and these short days do not provide enough daylight for backgrounders and caretakers to pre-condition after turn-out. So, calf buying could lag until temperatures become more constant after a hard freeze – which could coincide with the completion of harvest and new buying interests from the north. This week’s reported auction volume included just 33 percent over 600 lbs and 41 percent heifers. |
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| Federal Reserve Says Midwest Farm Economy Weakens: |
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| The Federal
Reserve Bank of Kansas City says lower income contributed to a weaker farm
economy during the third quarter in some Midwest and Western states. The
Fed's survey of banks in the 10th district says falling crop prices and
weak demand for meat contributed to lower income. As a result of the lower
income, bankers reported the lowest loan repayment rates since 2003, and
the number of loan extensions jumped.
The 10th Federal Reserve District in Kansas City covers Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Colorado, northern New Mexico and western Missouri. Across the district farmland values remained steady from the second quarter to the third quarter, but compared to a year ago, farmland values were down 2 percent to 4 percent. |
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| U.S. Unemployment Rate: |
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| Cattle Buyer Joke of the Week: |
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| After a disastrous
night in the casino, Bart went up to the bar and ordered seven double shots
of whiskey. The bartender poured the drinks and then watched in amazement
as Bart downed all seven drinks in a matter of seconds.
The bartender asked, "Hey buddy, what's the hurry?" With his eyes still watering from his effort, Bart said, "You'd drink fast too if you had what I have." With genuine concern, the bartender inquired, "What do you have?" Bart swallowed hard, looked up and down the bar, and then said weakly, "Eighty-seven cents." |
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| Est. Weekly Meat Production Under Federal Inspection: |
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| Total red meat production under Federal inspection for the week ending Saturday, November 14, 2009 was estimated at 963.7 million lbs. according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Marketing Service. This was 0.8 percent lower than a week ago and 0.4 percent higher than a year ago. Cumulative meat production for the year to date was 2.5 percent lower compared to the previous year. |
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| Bullish/Bearish Consensus: |
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The theory
behind the "Bullish/Bearish Consensus" indicator is when the public
reaches a consensus, they are usually wrong:
Conversely, when Public Opinion moves below the green dotted line, then the public is too pessimistic about the commodity's prospects for further gains compared to their opinion over the past year. Looking for absolute readings under 20% (or especially 10%) often indicates an upturn in the market. |
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| Economic News: |
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| Cow Slaughter: |
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| Total cow slaughter for the year through the week ending October 31st is near a year earlier, down only 0.5 percent. Dairy cow slaughter for the period is up 11.9 percent and beef cow slaughter is down 8.8 percent. It is expected both the beef and dairy cow inventory on January 1, 2010 to be down a little from a year earlier. |
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| Looking Ahead: |
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| Representative Sales of Cow & Pairs - This Week: |
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| Representative Sales of Cow & Pairs - Last Week |
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| Feedyard Closeouts: |
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| CATTLE FEEDING
RETURNS REMAIN IN THE RED:
. Red ink for cattle feeders has continued in 2009. On the heels of the worst cattle feeding returns ever in 2008, projected annual cash returns this year will likely be the second poorest ever. The losses in commercial cattle feeding are the largest since the industry was born in the 1960s. After the first
quarter of 2009, the average per head loss on steers did moderate and was
much smaller than the well over $100 plus per steer losses posted earlier
in the year. Losses for average performing cattle in feedlots are forecast
to continue for the balance of the year.
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| Slaughter Cattle: |
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| Trading was
slow in all reporting regions with very light demand to close the week.
Not enough sales today for an adequate market trend. For the week live
sales in the Texas Panhandle sold 2.00 to 3.00 lower at 85.00. Live sales
in Kansas sold 3.50 to 4.00 lower from 83.00 to mostly 84.00. Dressed sales
in Nebraska sold 2.00 to 4.00 lower from 130.00-132.00 and live sales sold
2.00 to 3.00 lower from 83.00 to 84.00. Live sales in Colorado sold 1.50
to 3.50 lower at 83.50. Dressed and live sales in Iowa/MN sold 2.00 to
4.00 lower from 130.00-132.00 and at 80.00-82.00 respectively.
The average live weight of cattle slaughtered in the Texas Panhandle for the week ending 11-07-2009 was 1263 lbs with 44 percent heifers compared to 1275 lbs and 42 percent heifers the previous week and 1279 lbs and 43 percent heifers the same week a year ago. |
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| Market Overview: |
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| Carcass weights
took a nose dive the end of October. From a seasonal high of 845 lbs.,
weights dropped to 828 lbs., well under prior year. This reduction, caused
primarily by poor feeding conditions in the corn belt, is expected to reduce
beef tonnage by 8.6 million pounds. This represents the equivalent of 10,000
cattle in the weekly slaughter.
Texas and Kansas joined the northern regions in selling cattle sharply lower on Thursday. Cattle sold mostly at $85 in moderate volumes in Texas and $83.50 in Kansas. Northern cattle sold $2 lower on Wednesday as cattle owners look at a futures board that has been careening lower. Packers purchased cattle for $132 in the beef and $83.50 live and volumes were moderate. The normally weak demand for the holiday season won out as retailers prepare for Thanksgiving. Box prices were weak in late week trading. The dollar continues to weaken sending most commodities, cattle excepted, higher. Beef has found little support from retail interest and has drifted lower all week. Choice cuts were quoted at $139 and select at $132 for a $7 spread. Stocker and feeder cattle fell and some suspect they may move into the 80s following rumors of a major scandal in the feeder auction trade. Futures have been leading the way downward and cash markets have followed. Feeder steers were off $2-4 while lighter calves sold up to $4-6 lower. A 750# steer was quoted at $93 in the southern plains. Cattle on feed numbers are expected to show an increase over prior year in the next cattle on feed report. |
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| USDA Crop Report: |
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| Tuesday's
USDA report for corn was considered neutral with the domestic yield reduced
to 162.9 bushels per acre and production to 12.92 billion bushels which
were in line with expectations. The carryover was listed at 1.625
billion bushels which was below expectations. Global carryover was
lower coming in nearly 4 million tons below last month at 132.41 million
tonnes.
The Soybeans Supply/Demand report was higher than expected which was negative. Global ending stocks were up to 57.39 million tons. Soybean yields came in at 43.3 bushels per acre which was 0.6 bushels above the average trade estimate. The production number was at 3.319 billion bushels as compared to the average trade estimate of 3.262 billion bushels. The carryover was up to 370 million versus the average trade estimate of 236 million bushels. The USDA numbers for wheat were negative with the global carryover coming in at 188.28 million tonnes. The domestic carryover was at 885 million bushels as compared to the average trade estimate of 870 million bushels and last months number of 864 million bushels. |
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| National Grain Summary: |
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| Friday: Wheat
closed higher as corn was mostly unchanged with soybeans closing slightly
lower. Corn was unchanged as export sales were low at 488,500 tonnes
with a chance of rain in the forecast which limits the downside.
Soybeans traded higher before selling off at the close. Soybean exports
were bullish at 1,272,500 tones. Wheat exports were in line at 412,500
tonnes, closing higher as the dollar also closed lower.
Corn prices were lower yesterday but moved higher in overnight trading. USDA released the crop report and ending stock estimates this week. Corn yields were reduced from 164 bushels per acre to 163. Ending stocks at 1.625 bushels were in line with forecasts. The government raised price forecasts 30 cents a bushel. Corn is now trading a 30 cent premium basis to the September contract in the southern plains. Corn is now pricing into most rations at $7.75 cwt. |
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| Although the information contained in this Market Summary is from sources believed to be accurate and timely, THE CATTLE RANGE EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY OF ANY OF THE CONTENT PROVIDED, OR AS TO THE FITNESS OF THE INFORMATION FOR ANY PURPOSE. |
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