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Weekly Market Summary
For the week ending January 13, 2017
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The Cattle Range Market Trendlines:
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Cattle futures closing higher for the week were more than offset by weak cash cattle and large declines for boxed beef.  Economic growth and strong consumer demand are again critical for gains in the beef/cattle complex.
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10 Day Market Trendline
Change from Previous Day: +1.15%
 Change from 10 Days Ago: -2.20%
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The Trendlines are indicators of overall cattle/beef market strength and are based on daily market factors.  Each daily factor is the aggregate weighted total of the Gain/(Loss) for 12 market indicators compared to the previous trading day. The angle indicates direction & velocity of the trend.
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30 Day Market Trendline
Change from 30 Days Ago: +9.29%
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  • Click Here.to receive the WMS on Saturday mornings or have it sent to friends & associates.
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Regular Contents: 
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  • Weekly Market Overview.
  • National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Weekly Summary.
  • Stocker & Feeder Steers.
  • Stocker & Feeder Cattle Weekly Receipts.
  • 5 Year Moving Avg. - Stocker, Feeder, & Slaughter Steers.
  • Selected Auction Reports.
  • Direct Sales of Feeder & Stocker Cattle.
  • Representative Sales of Cow & Pairs.
  • Canadian Cattle.
  • USDA National Retail Beef Report.
  • Photo of the Week.
  • Shootin' the Bull Weekly Analysis.
  • U.S. Dollar - 6 Month Chart.
  • Choice Boxed Beef Cutout, Slaughter, & Feeder Steers.
  • Feeder Steers/Corn Correlation.
  • Slaughter Cows & Bulls.
  • Est. Weekly Meat Production Under Federal Inspection.
  • Weekly Hay Reports.
  • Weekly Feedstuffs Market Review.
  • Bullish/Bearish Consensus: Cattle & Corn.
  • Stock Markets & Economic News.
  • Weather Outlook.
  • Feedyard Closeouts: Profit/(Loss).
  • Slaughter Cattle.
  • National Grain Summary.
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    Of Possible Interest:
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    Weekly Market Overview:
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    On-Line Store
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    National Feeder & Stocker Cattle Weekly Summary:
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    RECEIPTS:  Auctions   Direct    Video/Internet     Total
    This Week      367,500     53,400         78,800           499,700 
    Last Week      211,700     44,100          2,500            258,300 
    Last Year        281,900     56,500         66,600           405,000 

    Compared to last week, calves under 600 lbs sold unevenly steady ranging from steady to 4.00 higher to 4.00 lower with some spots 6.00 to 10.00 higher throughout all regions. Yearlings trading steady to 3.00 lower with some spots up to 6.00 lower.  The first full week of direct trading occurred with most trends reported steady to 4.00 higher.  Many producers have been waiting for this week to sell their spring born calf-crop, evidenced by the showing of nearly 500K head sold though auctions, directs and video sales this week.  That is the second largest volume reported on this report in the last five years; only topped by week ending 7/17/2015 when nearly 2/3 of the reported receipts of 554,900 were video sales. 

    Producers throughout the country have not liked the prices through fall and when December finally got here, most were prepared to carry cattle until the new year.  Demand was good to very good this week in auctions as order buyers had plenty of orders to fill, especially Monday through Wednesday when several of the larger receipt auctions in the country took place.  Even though there were plenty of cattle headed to feedyards, several auctions in the North Plains had heifers marked as Replacement on their market reports.  On Wednesday in Kearney, NE at Huss-Platte Valley Livestock Auction, a half load of light 7-weight replacement quality heifers sold from 177.00-177.25 or just a tick over $1300/head average.  Wow what a ticket! 

    Fed cattle prices not established as of mid-day on Friday with feedyards wanting to push the market higher than the 117.00 to 118.00 live and 188.00 dressed market of last week.  Some uncertain weather that is to roll into the Central Plains over the weekend may just keep the packers somewhat on the sidelines due to the extreme ice forecasted.  Slaughter levels topped 600K again this week, with the packers picking up right where they left off after the holidays.   Cattle slaughter for CY2016 reported at 30.1M head; nearly 2 million more than 2015 and 1 million under the previous 5 year average. 

    CME Live Cattle futures closed the week 3.22 to 4.05 higher than last Friday, with most of the gain coming from Monday and Tuesday.  Also, the Feeder Cattle contracts were 2.13 to 5.50 higher for the week with limit or near limit move ups on the March and April on Tuesday.  Choice Boxed beef values have eroded this week to the tune of 8.01 to close at 190.80.  In addition, the Choice - Select spread has shrunk to around 4.00 after being near 10.00 at the turn of the year.  Auction volume this week included 59 percent weighing over 600 lbs and 40 percent heifers.

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    Stocker Steers:
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    Feeder Steers:
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    Stocker & Feeder Cattle Weekly Receipts:
    Weekly sales of Stocker Calves & Feeder Cattle sold via auctions, direct country sales, and video/Internet sales as reported by the UDSA Market News
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    Five Year Moving Average - Stocker, Feeder, & Slaughter Steers:
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    Cattle Futures: Cattle futures closed 95 cents to $1.45 higher with the April contract leading gains. Prices closed near their daily highs. February futures gained $3.70 on the week. Cattle futures will take their cue from the wholesale market next week. Traders have worried wholesale prices had peaked but the rebound seen on Friday tempered that concern. The ice and winter storms due this weekend will also impact movement, but Monday's demand will be light due to holiday shutdowns for many plants.
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    Selected Auction Reports:
    "Click" on individual.auction links.for complete report
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    Farmers & Ranchers Livestock Commission Co. - Salina KS
    Receipts:  5733    Last Week:  2897    Year Ago:  5473
    Compared to last week: Steers 550-1000 lbs 1.00-3.00 lower; 550 lbs and under lower undertone noted. Heifers 550-900 lbs 3.00-6.00 lower; 550 lbs and under lower undertone noted.

    Green Forest Livestock Auction - Green Forest AR
    Receipts:  2568          Last week:  798             Last year:  2020
    Compared to last week: Feeder steers mostly 1.00-5.00 higher with the 600-650lbs 9.00-10.00 higher. Feeder heifers 1.00-8.00 higher with the better 500-550lbs 10.00 higher.

    Tulia Livestock Auction - Tulia TX
    Receipts:  3350    Last Week:  3199    Year Ago:  1606
    Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers sold 1.00 to 4.00 higher.  Trade was active on very good demand.  Offering consisted of mostly attractive quality yearling steers weighing 650-850 lbs and yearling heifers weighing 700-800 lbs.

    Mitchell Livestock Wtd Avg Report - Mitchell SD
    Receipts:  4974    Last Week:  6901    Year Ago:  6198
    Compared to last week:  Feeder steers under 600 lbs were narrowly compared, 600-650 lbs steady to 2.00 higher, 650-750 lbs steady to 1.00 lower, 750-900 lbs 1.00 to 4.00 lower, 900-1000 lbs steady with instances 1.00 higher.

    Cullman Stockyard - Cullman AL
    Receipts:  1397    Last Week:  847    Year Ago:  1171
    Compared to last week: Slaughter cows sold 2.00 to 3.00 higher, slaughter bulls sold 1.00 to 3.00 higher. Feeder bulls and steers sold 2.00 to 4.00 higher.

    Russell Wtd Avg Feeder Cattle Auction - Russell IA
    Receipts:  3666    Last Week:  3502    Year Ago:  2566
    Compared to the sale last week: Feeder strs and hfrs mostly 1.00-3.00 lower. Trade Active and Demand Good today. Receipts this week included 63 percent feeder cattle over 600 lbs; 64 percent of the feeders were strs and 36 percent were hfrs.

    Oklahoma National Stockyards - Oklahoma City OK
    Receipts:  11,458     Last Reported:  3,130    Year ago:  7,527
    Compared to the last sale 12/19/16:  Feeder steers over 800 lbs 4.00-6.00 lower, lighter weights steady to 5.00 higher.  Feeder heifers over 700 lbs 3.00 lower, lighter weights 3.00 higher on limited comparable receipts.

    El Reno Cattle Narrative - El Reno OK
    Receipts:  13,319    Week ago:    11,154    Year ago:  8,109
    Compared to last week:  Feeder steers sold steady to 2.00 lower with exception to the 600-650 lb range bringing 3.00 higher.  Feeder heifers brought 2.00 to 4.00 higher.  Steer and heifer calves sold 5.00 to 10.00 higher with instances of 15.00 higher in the lighter weight categories.

    Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg - Carthage MO
    Receipts:  7,338     Week ago:   10,861    Year ago:  4,774
    ***CLOSE***  Compared to last Monday's feeder cattle sale, steers under 750 lbs  2.00 to 4.00 higher, 750 to 900 lbs unevenly steady to 2.00 lower, over 900 lbs 2.00 to 6.00 lower, heifers under 650 lbs steady to 3.00 higher, over 650 lbs steady.

    Huss Platte Valley Auction - Kearney NE
    Receipts:  4965    Last Week:  4705    Year Ago:  6062
    Compared to last week, fly-weight calves sold 6.00 higher, over 600 lbs sold steady to 3.00 lower. Heifers sold unevenly steady. Demand was good throughout the sale from a large crowd of buyers.

    Toppenish, WA Livestock Auction - Toppenish WA
    Receipts:  800    Last Week:  1000    Year Ago:  1200
    No trends due to the holidays the last two weeks and market not reported. Trade active with good demand. Inclement weather conditions and subzero temps in the trade area affecting movement of livestock.

    Cattleman's Livestock Auction - Dalhart, TX
    Cattle and Calves:  2,283    Last Week:  1,857    Year Ago:  1,175
    Compared to Last week:  Offerings on the day were mostly long weaned calves no longer carrying their milk fat and yearling feeders tending on the gaunt side.

    Pratt Livestock Feeder Cattle Auction - Pratt, KS
    Receipts:  5990    Last Week:  3309    Year Ago:  3564
    Compared to last week: Feeder steers 650-750 lbs steady to 2.00 higher; 750-1000 lbs 3.00-7.00 lower; Feeder heifers 600-950 lbs steady to 5.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves a firm to higher undertone noted on a light test.

    Clovis Livestock Auction - Clovis NM
    Receipts:  2895            Week Ago: 2423           Year Ago: 2272
    Compared to last week:  Feeder steers under 700 lbs mostly 2.00-4.00 higher, instances 7.00 higher on 350-400 lbs.  Over 700 lbs 5.00-7.00 higher.  Heifers 2.00-6.00 higher except 500-550 lbs steady.

    Sioux Falls Regional Livestock wtd Avg Report - Worthing SD
    Receipts:  6901    Last Week:  6120    Year Ago:  6236
    Compared to last week:  Steers 500-550 lbs steady to 3.00 lower, 550-600 lbs unevenly steady, 600-750 lbs mostly 5.00 to 10.00 lower, 750-900 lbs mostly 3.00 to 7.00 lower with instances seen of 10.00 lower on 750-800 lbs, 900-950 lbs 1.00 to 3.00 lower.

    Blue Grass South Livestock Market - Stanford KY
    Receipts:  688    Last Week:  0    Year Ago:  605
    No comparison due to no report last week. Feeders-588,Slaughter-82,Replacements-18 Supply included 51 percent over 600 lbs and 29 percent heifers.

    Tri-State Livestock Auction Market - McCook NE
    Receipts:  3750    Last Week:  750    Year Ago:  4000
    Not enough to show a comparison to last week. Demand was good on All offerings. Steers accounted for 45 percent and heifers 55 percent Of the offering today.

    Russell Wtd Avg Feeder Cattle Auction - Russell IA
    Receipts:  3666    Last Week:  3502    Year Ago:  2566
    Compared to the sale last week: Feeder strs and hfrs mostly 1.00-3.00 lower. Trade Active and Demand Good today. Receipts this week included 63 percent feeder cattle over 600 lbs; 64 percent of the feeders were strs and 36 percent were hfrs.

    Valentine Livestock Auction Market - Valentine NE
    Receipts:  5320 Last week: 3765 Last year: 4940
    Compared with last week steers and heifers traded unevenly steady.  Demand was good with several buyers and high internet activity.  Feeders made up 100 percent of the offering.

    Winter Livestock - La Junta CO...
    Receipts:  6821    Last Week:  1829    Year Ago:  5628
    Compared with last Tuesday: Steers under 500 lbs mostly steady, 500-700 lbs 3.00 to 5.00 instances 8.00 higher, 700-800 lbs 2.00 to 3.00 higher, over 800 lbs steady. Heifers under 500 lbs mostly steady, 500-650 lbs 5.00 to 8.00 higher, 650-700 lbs 2.00 to 3.00 higher, 700-800 lbs 2.00 to 3.00 higher, over 800 lbs steady.

    Huss Platte Valley Auction - Kearney NE
    Receipts:  4965    Last Week:  4705    Year Ago:  6062
    Compared to last week, fly-weight calves sold 6.00 higher, over 600 lbs sold steady to 3.00 lower. Heifers sold unevenly steady. Demand was good throughout the sale from a large crowd of buyers.

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    Direct Sales of Feeder & Stocker Cattle:
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    WY, Western NE & Western Dakotas Direct Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg (Fri)
    Receipts:  2151   Week Ago:  1300    Year Ago:  2287 
    Compared to last week, heavy 8 weight steers sold 3.00 lower with no other weight comparisons. Demand was good this week with several feedlot participating. Colder temperatures along with snow and ice is moving its way across the reporting regions this weekend and will continue into the first of the week.

    AZ-CA-NV Weekly Feeder Cattle Review (Fri)
    Confirmed: 1955 
    Compared to last week, a few loads of Holstein steer calves for May delivery traded at steady prices. Trade and demand moderate. Supply consisted of Holstein steer calves weighing 275-325 lbs for Current to May delivery.

    Colorado Direct Feeder Cattle Report (Fri)
    Receipts: 5,711        Last Week 1,732        Last Year 3,032 
    Compared to last week:  Feeder steers 2.00 higher on very limited Current FOB trades. No test on feeder heifers. Demand moderate to good. Supply consisted of 45 percent over 600 lbs; 2 percent heifers. 

    IA-South MN Direct Feeder Cattle Weekly (Mon)
    Receipts:  0     Last Week:  0     Last Year:  0
    Compared to the last week:  Feeder steers and heifers again not established.  Winter storms in the north is limiting movement of cattle. Prices based on net weights FOB after a 3 percent shrink or equivalent and 5-10 cent slide on calves and 4-6 cent slide on yearlings from base weights.

    Kansas Direct Feeder Cattle Summary (Fri)
    Receipts:  4677    Last Week:  3175    Year Ago:  2272
    Compared with last week: Steers firm to 4.00 higher; not enough heifers for a market test. Trade moderate, demand good are buyers were ready to own cattle. Sales confirmed on 4543 steers, 134 heifers and no calves for a total of 4677 head compared with 3175 last week and 2272 last year.

    Montana Direct Feeder Cattle Wtd Avg (Fri)
    Receipts: 1,208        Last Week 1,074        Last Year 3,213 
    Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers lightly tested but no recent test for a trend.  Supply included 100 percent over 600 lbs; 19 percent heifers.

    New Mexico Feeder Cattle Report (Mon)
    Receipts:  1800    Last Week:  400    Year Ago:  600
    Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers traded mostly steady on very limited comparable sales.  Trade activity was moderate to good on good demand.  Supply consisted of 72 percent steers and 28 percent heifers.

    Northwest Wtd Avg Direct Feeder Cattle Report (Fri)
    Receipts:  2050   Last Week:  N/A    Year Ago:  3550
    No trends due to the holidays the last two weeks and market not reported. Trade slow to moderate with good demand. The feeder supply included 84 percent steers and 16 percent heifers. Near 76 percent of the supply weighed over 600 lbs. 

    Oklahoma Direct Feeder Cattle (Fri)
    Receipts: 2,613        Last Week 2,035        Last Year 5,836 
    Compared to last week:  Feeder steers and heifers not well tested for current delivery, however a slightly higher undertone is noted. Movement has been very active in the sale barns across the state this week.Receipts this week consisted of 100 percent over 600 lbs and 8 percent heifers.

    Texas Direct Feeder Cattle (Fri)
    Confirmed: 27,600     Last Week: 26,200    Last Year: 33,200
    Compared to last week current FOB feeder steers and heifers, unevenly steady to firm again instances 2.00-4.00 higher with wider spreads on prices because of some declining prices along with higher prices on the days that the futures rallied.
     

  • Extensive U.S. & Canadian Auction Results are available on The Cattle Range
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    Representative Sales of Cow & Pairs:
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    Reported by.USDA Market News for the week ending January 13th
    • Video:
      • Bred cows: Young age (3-5 yrs old) Medium and Large 1 1300 lbs calving Feb-Apr 1,850.00 Jan del; Middle age-Aged (6-10 yrs old) Medium and Large 1 1425 lbs calving Feb-Apr 1,350.00, Jan del; Aged (Broken mouth) Medium and Large 1 1250 lbs calving March-May 985.00 Jan del per head.  Bred Heifers: Medium and Large 1 Registrable Herefords 1050 calving March-May 2,425.00 Jan del; 2-4 yrs old Medium and Large 1 1175 calving April-June 2,300.00 Jan del; Middle age (5-7 yrs old) Medium and Large 1 1300 calving April-June 2,200.00 Jan del per head. 
      • Cow/calf pairs: Medium and Large 1 First calf heifer pairs with Jan-Apr calves at side 1,000-1,100 lbs 1,860.00-2,000.00, Fancy Red Angus package 1,100 lbs 2,175.00 per pair. 
    • Western Video Market:
      • Bred Stock:  Medium and Large 1 West Current Delivery Heifers 1000 lbs 7-8 months bred 1425.00-1450.00; Young 1200 lbs 4-7 months bred 1700.00-1725.00; Middle Aged 1200 lbs 4-7 months bred 1325.00-1450.00; Aged 1200 lbs 4-7 months bred 900.00-1100.00 per head. 
      • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1 West Current Delivery Young to Middle Aged 1200 lbs with 300 lb calves 2075.00 per pair. 
    • McAlester, OK:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  1-4 yr old 900-1375 lbs 4-8 months bred 1000.00-1450.00; 5-10 yr old 950-1425 lbs 4-8 months bred 870.00-1150.00 per head. 
      • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  7-10 yr old 900-1175 lb cow w/100-400 lb calf 900-1175.00 per pair. 
    • El Reno, OK:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  1-4 yr old 950-1100 lb 5-8 months bred black 1250.00-1460.00; 1-6 yr old 900-1125 lbs 4-7 months bred 700.00-1225.00; 7-10 yr old 1000-1300 lbs 4-8 months bred 800.00-1100.00 per head.
      • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  3-5 yr old 975-1100 lb cow w/100-200 lb calf 1275.00-1400.00; 8-9 yr old 1150-1200 lbs cow w/50-100 lb calf 1075.00-1150.00 per pair. 
    • Oklahoma City, OK:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  1-6 yr old 900-1675 lbs 2-7 months bred 700.00-1150.00; 6-7 yr old tiger stripe 1300-1350 lbs 6-7 months bred 1485.00-1550.00; 5-6 yr old black 1175-1525 lbs 6-7 months bred 1225.00-1400.00; 7-10 yr old 1075-1650 lbs 2-7 months bred 700.00-1100.00 per head. 
      • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  4-6 yr old 975-1400 lb cows w/75-125 lb calves 910.00-1200.00; pkg 10 yr old 1300 lb cow w/200 lb calf 1150.00 per pair. 
    • Woodward, OK:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  3-4 yr old 950-1250 lbs 5-8 months bred black 1075.00-1500.00; 6-10+ yr old 1100—1350 lbs 5-7 months bred 890.00-975.00; 8-10+ yrs old 5-7 months bred black 840-1025.00 per head. 
      • Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  3-6 yr old 1200-1400 lb black cows w/250-275 lb calf some bred 1725.00-1785.00; 7-10+ yr old 1150-1275 lb black cows w/150-275 lb calf 1110.00-1350.00; pkg 10+ yr old 1300 lbs cow w/250 lb calf 1285.00 per pair. 
    • Clovis, NM:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2 Young 960-1518 lb cows 3-8 months bred 815.00-1400.00, per head; 1035-1085 lb cows 1-3 months bred 775.00-950.00, per head; middle aged short solid mouth 1010-1390 lb cows 3-8 months bred 650.00-1025.00 per head; aged 835-1655 lb cows 3-8 months bred 650.00-960.00, per head.  First Calf Heifers:  875-1050 lb cows 3-8 months bred 850.00-1050.00, per head. 
      • Cow/Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2 Young 800-1255 lb cows w/160-325 lb calves 1085.00-1400.00, per pair.
    • Roswell, NM:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2 Young 830-1517 lb cows 3-8 months bred 825.00-1300.00, per head; middle aged 915-1240 lb cows 3-8 months bred 700.00-875.00, per head; aged 935-1440 lb cows 3-8 months bred 600.00-925.00, per head. 
      • Cow/Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2 Young 770-900 lb cows w/150-225 lb calves 1175.00-1200.00, per pair. 
    • Pratt, KS:
      • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 2 Aged 16 head 1355 lbs 2nd trimester 925.00; 8 head 1273 lbs 3rd trimester 975.00 per head. 
      • Cow-Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2 Middle-Aged 5 head 1550 lbs Calves 200-275 lbs 1450.00 
    • Springfield, MO:
      • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2 yrs to short and solid mouth 2nd and 3rd stage 1030-1345 lbs 1200.00-1475.00, 1st stage 1025-1315 lbs 900.00-1200.00; short and solid mouth to aged most 2nd few 3rd stage 1160-1255 lbs 700.00-1000.00. Large 1-2  4-5 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 1470-1790 lbs 1275.00-1360.00, 1st stage 1505 lb indiv. 1000.00; short and solid mouth 2nd and 3rd stage 1410-1615 lbs 900.00-1275.00. Medium and Large 2  4 yr 2nd stage 1150 lb indiv. 950.00. Medium 1-2  4 yr 3rd stage 860 lb indiv. 950.00 per head. 
      • Cow/Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  short and solid mouth pkg. 1295 lb cows w/150-160 lb calves 1450.00; broken mouth 1110 lb cow w/newborn calf 800.00. Large 1-2 broken mouth 1470 lb cow w/baby calf 1150.00 per pair. 
    • St. Joseph, MO:
      • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1 Large consignment 4-5 year olds 1183 lbs 3-9 months bred 1885.00-1950.00; 6-7 year olds few 1385-1445 lbs 3-6 months bred 1175.00-1300.00, few 1210-1540 lbs 6-9 months bred 1450.00-1650.00 per head; Short and solid mouth 1280-1470 lbs 3-9 months bred 1200.00-1450.00, few 1500.00 per head; Aged 1245-1440 lbs 3-9 months bred 875.00—900.00 per head.  Medium and Large 1-2 Short and solid mouth 1260-1370 lbs 3-9 months bred 975.00-1100.00 per head. 
      • Cow/Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1  2 years old few 1000-1100 lb cows w/150-200 lb calves 2350.00 per pair; 3-5 year olds 1200-1400 lb cow w/100-150 lb calves 1800.00-1900.00, indiv w/250-300 lb calf 2200.00 per pair; 6-7 year olds few 1300-1400 lb cow w/150-250 lb calves 1600.00-1800.00 per pair; short and solid mouth 1200-1300 lb cows w/150-300 lb calves 1275.00-1450.00 per pair; aged few 1200-1250 lb cow w/150-250 lb calves 1100.00-1250.00 per pair.  Medium and Large 1-2  4-5 year olds few 1000-1100 lb cow w/150 lb calves 1650.00 per pair. 
    • West Plains, MO:
      • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-7 yr old 1025-1605 lb cows in the 2nd-3rd stage 1000.00-1400.00 per head, 1st stage 900.00-1025.00 per head; Short-solid to broken mouth 975-1575 lb cows in the 2nd-3rd stage 950.00-1050.00 per head.  Medium and Large 2  2-7 yr old 760-1245 lb cows in the 2nd-3rd stage 750.00-1000.00 per head; Short-solid to broken mouth 915-1355 lb cows in the 2nd-3rd stage 650.00-975.00 per head, 1st stage 600.00-900.00 per head. 
      • Cow-Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  5-6 yr old 1190-1345 lb cows with 200-300 lb calves 1200.00-1750.00 per pair; 7 yr to short-solid mouth 870-1240 lb cows with 300-400 lb calves 1200.00-1500.00 per pair. 
    • Joplin, MO:
      • Bred Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2 yrs to short and solid mouth 2nd and 3rd stage 900-1365 lbs 1075.00-1550.00, 1st stage few 1200-1300 lbs 925.00-1035.00; short and solid mouth to aged 2nd and 3rd stage 1090-1365 lbs 700.00-1050.00. Large 1-2  4 yrs to short and solid mouth 2nd and 3rd stage 1450-1600 lbs 1200.00-1575.00; broken mouth to aged 2nd and 3rd stage 1400-1575 lbs 940.00-1100.00. Medium and Large 2  4-6 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 1025-1290 lbs800.00-1075.00; short and solid mouth to aged 995-1135 lbs 675.00-850.00, 1st stage pkg. 1090 lbs 510.00. Medium 1-2  2-5 yrs 2nd and 3rd stage 850-1050 lbs925.00-975.00, 1st stage 950-975 lbs 800.00-850.00; short and solid mouth toaged 2nd and 3rd stage 950-1050 lbs 525.00-650.00 per head. 
      • Cow/Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  3-7 yrs 1100-1365 lb cows w/145-225 lb calves 1350.00-1525.00; short and solid mouth to aged pkg. 1350 lb cows w/150 lb calves 1150.00. Medium 1-2  3-7 yrs 875-1025 lb cows w/babies to 375 lb calves 1350.00-1400.00 per pair. 
    • Billings, MT:
      • Bred cows: Medium and Large 1  3-4 yrs old early calving 1160-1220 lbs 1,310.00-1,350.00. May/June calving 1200 lbs 1325.00. Summer calving 1205-1375 lbs 1,075.00-1,100.00.  5-6 yrs old March calving 1220-1520 lbs 1,210.00-1,225.00.  Middle aged (Solid mouth) March calving 1255-1330 lbs 960.00.  Aged (Broken mouth) Short term 1265-1330 lbs 810.00-885.00. 
    • Arkansas:
      • Replacement Cows:  Medium and Large 1-2  2-7 year old 850-1250 second & third stage 104.00-114.00, 950.00-1050.00/hd, first stage/open      65.00-75.00, 7-10 year old second & third stage 64.00-74.00, 800.00-900.00/hd. 
      • Cow-Calf Pairs:  Medium and Large 1-2  3-7 year old 800-1200 cow w/100-200 lb calf 1175.00-1275.00/pair, few to 1550.00/pair, 7-10 year old w/100-200 lb calf 1050.00-1150.00/pair.
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    Canadian Cattle:
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    Alberta Beef Producers: Alberta direct cattle sales so far this week have seen light trade develop with dressed sales ranging from 268.00-270.00 delivered. Initial sales are steady to 5.00 higher than the previous week. Tentatively prices are on track to average above 160.00 this week. If realized this would be the highest close seen since the beginning of June. Fed prices have now strengthened for thirteen consecutive weeks.
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    Tire-Changing Ramp for Trailers
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    USDA January World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates
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    The estimate for total red meat and poultry production for 2016 is raised slightly from last month. 
    • Beef production is raised on increased fed cattle slaughter and heavier carcass weights. 
    • Pork production for 2016 is raised based on slaughter data. 
    • Broiler and turkey production for 2016 is slightly lower based on the recent slaughter. 
    For 2017, red meat and poultry production is raised largely on higher forecast pork production, although forecasts of beef and broilers are raised. Higher expected cattle placements in late 2016 and early 2017 underpin higher forecast beef production in 2017.

    USDA will release its semi-annual Cattle report January 31 which will provide estimates of heifers held for breeding along with indications of the availability of cattle for placement during 2017. Pork production for 2017 is raised based on estimates from the DecemberQuarterly Hogs and Pigs report. 

    The 5 percent year-over-year increase in the September–November pig crop will be slaughtered largely in the second quarter of 2017. Producers indicated intentions to farrow 1 percent more sows in the first half of 2017 which, coupled with expected growth in pigs per litter, will support a higher level of slaughter during the second half of the year. 

    Broiler production is raised for early 2017 on recent hatchery data, but the turkey production forecast is unchanged. Egg production for 2017 is raised slightly based on hatchery data.

    Both beef and pork 2016 export estimates are raised based on November trade data and expectations of strong export demand in December. Beef imports are lowered, but no change is made to pork imports. Broiler and turkey exports are lowered on recent trade data. No change is made to the 2016 egg export estimate. For 2017, beef exports are raised as current demand strength is expected to carry into 2017. 

    Imports are forecast higher on expectations of slightly larger supplies from Oceania in early 2017. No changes are made to pork, broiler, or turkey trade forecasts. The 2017 egg export forecast is raised on expectations of stronger sales in the first half of the year.

    Livestock and poultry prices for 2016 are adjusted to reflect December price data. The 2017 cattle price forecast is increased on continued strong demand into the first part of 2017. The hog price forecast for first quarter 2017 is raised on demand strength, but price forecasts for subsequent quarters are lowered as hog supplies are expected to be large. Broiler prices are raised slightly on early-year demand strength. Turkey prices are forecast lower on relatively soft demand. Egg prices are increased. 

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    Beef Import/Export Data
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    Trends in beef moving in and out of the US during November were higher when compared to a year earlier. Imports were up 13%, on a tonnage basis, the first monthly year-over-year increase in 2016. Beef export volume in November reached the highest level since July 2013. Beef purchases by Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong account for most of the gain. In total, beef exports were up 23% from the prior November.

    Beef exports, on a carcass weight equivalent basis (data provided by USDA-ERS), had been expected to bounce back from the diminished levels of a year ago, but still fall short of the higher exports that were registered in 2012-2014. Last year, exports totaled 2.265 billion pounds, down from 2.572 billion pounds in 2014. This year, exports had been on a pace to be close to 2.4 billion pounds, but now have a reasonable chance of reaching 2.5 billion pounds. An extension of the November export pace into December would put 2016 exports close to the 2014 volume. Japan was the top destination for US beef in November, at 59 million pounds. This was up from 36 million pounds in November 2015 and was the highest November shipment to Japan on record. From June through October of 2014, beef shipments to Japan exceeded 60 million pounds and the largest monthly shipment to Japan was 80 million pounds in July 2013.

    Higher shipments for US beef provides some encouragement for 2017. This year, exports of beef to Japan are slated to be in the range of 640-650 million pounds. This compares with 540 million pounds of beef shipped to Japan last year and 671 and 662 million pounds of beef shipped in 2013 and 2014, respectively. A longer frame of reference shows that prior to the “Mad Cow” event at the beginning of 2004, Japan imported close to 950 million pounds of beef from the US.

    The most impressive market for US beef in terms of growth potential this year could be South Korea. Beef exports to South Korea in November were up 63% from a year earlier. The recent pace of exports should result in an annual total in excess of 400 million pounds. This compares to about 320 million pounds shipped last year and 301 million pounds shipped in 2014. Again, looking back to the pre-Mad Cow era, South Korea took delivery on close to 600 million pounds of beef annually.

    Average pricing on exported product during November showed some interesting trends. The average value of product shipped to Japan declined by 3% from November 2015 to November 2016. The average value of beef per pound moving to South Korea in November was up 4% from a year earlier. By comparison, the choice beef cutout value averaged 12% less than a year ago in November. This would suggest that the composition of beef products imported by Japan and South Korea was upgraded over the course of the last year to take higher priced cuts of the carcass.

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    USDA National Retail Beef Report:
    Advertised Prices for Beef at Major Retail Supermarket Outlets
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    This week in the Beef Retail saw Feature Rate lower by 7.6% and Special Rate higher by 7.5% when compared to the prior week. Also, Activity Index was higher thes week when compared to last week. T-Bone Steak and Boneless New York Strip Steak saw a good bit more ad space this week. The 4 Week Activity Comparison saw Loin, Brisket and Ground Beef higher than the previous week.
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    Volatility Returns
    Cassie Fish... cassandrafish.com
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    It’s been the first wild week in months for CME cattle futures. A limit up move followed by a near limit down move hasn’t taken place for a long time -- and hasn’t been missed by most market participants.

    Big money flow into CME cattle futures this week, partly an announced reallocation of positions for 2017, resulted in extremely heavy volume and an open interest surge. Though we won’t know until Friday’s Commitment of Trader’s report, it’s likely the fund buying was met by heavy commercial selling.

    At the same time as the futures drama, boxed beef prices took a major hit, with the rib primal down $18, chuck down $20 and round down almost $18. The loin is down a mere $9. Over all, the choice cutout is down $14.26 from a week ago and a bottomed isn’t expected until next week, lower still.

    How did this happen? Big beef production through the holidays is part of the explanation. Between December 12 and January 7, the industry killed 254,000 head more cattle than last year. Perhaps the eagerness to bank a very profitable December for packers incentivized the big kills.

    When beef movement finally slowed down dramatically last week, as reported by the USDA in its weekly Comprehensive Cutout report, the excess production created a problem fixed only by clearing product through the system at lower money. The velocity of the cutout break has surprised and given the end user yet another great opportunity to book attractive values forward.

    The larger question looming is whether the cattle market has put in a major top or not. Last year’s rally lasted 13 weeks. If the market topped with the Dec LC expiration at $123.70, that was 11 weeks and a 29% gain, historically large. It’s worth pointing out that the 2-year decline the market experienced was even more “historically large” and that the fundamentals, such as declining weights, front-end currentness, expanded domestic and export beef demand are now in play. At the very least, a reasonable trading range will likely prevail in Q1 and early Q2 between $110 and $120 with more upside possible depending on the still-to-play-out supply scenario.

    Just released USDA data for the week ended December 31 showed steer carcass weights up 3 pounds from a week ago, down 4 pounds from 2015 and up 3 pounds from 2014. The steepness of the carcass weight decline from now until May 1 will be very telling regarding the overall market.

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    Photo of the Week:
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  • Red Angus Rep. Heifers... N. Central NE*
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    Shootin' the Bull Weekly Analysis:
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    Live Cattle: Current conditions remain.  Cattle prices are being cash led and when cash stalls, futures trade lower.  This is perceived due to thoughts that inventory and weights will increase down the road with consumer demand remaining somewhat questionable as to whether it will be just sustained or grow.  The flip side of this is that there are not going to be any increase in slaughter numbers for another 3 to 4 weeks regardless.  So, if weather were to become a factor, or consumer demand create a slightly harder pull on inventory, then cash would be anticipated to remain elevated.  Therefore, it would be hard to see the futures pull too far away from cash.

    Feeder Cattle: Volatility has reared its head in the feeder market.  There is not much to do at this level.  If you missed the top end, I would set my sights on a 50% retracement of this most recent decline to begin offsetting inventory that remains unpriced. At this time, there is not much to anticipate one way or the other.  Further firming of the back months fats will go a long way in keeping feeders from plummeting, but something really impressive with the fats would have to materialize in order to offset the inventory perceived coming.

    Corn: As many times as I’ve been snookered in my analysis, it is nice to have some justification every now and then.  The beans blowing out of the shorter term down trend while pushing through and closing into resistance of the $10.32 bottoms.  Meal came to within $2.50 of exceeding its high for the past 2 months.  Oil was hyper volatile, but unable to hold the gains that the beans and meal did.  This is not bothersome at this time.  Corn continued to meander and wheat found strength from the 3.4 million acre decrease in seeding’s.  All in all, not a bad day when you throw in the further movement lower in the US dollar, and higher energy prices.  Commodities appear to have just a flicker of light at the end of the tunnel.

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    Christopher B. Swift is a commodity broker and consultant with Swift Trading Company in Nashville, TN. Mr. Swift authors the daily commentaries "mid day cattle comment" and "Shootin' the Bull" commentary found on his website @ www.shootinthebull.com

    An investment in futures contracts is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of their margin deposits.  You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

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    Beef Market Price Dynamics
    Derrell Peel -- Oklahoma State University Extension
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    Retail beef prices will continue adjusting down in 2017 due to retail market dynamics and continued growth in domestic beef consumption this year.  The most recent All Fresh retail beef prices in November were $554.20/cwt., down 7.5 percent from one year earlier.  All Fresh retail beef prices peaked in July, 2015 and have decreased 9.8 percent from the peak through November, 2016. 

    The average monthly price decrease since the peak has been 0.6 percent per month but the rate of decrease accelerated in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2016.  November All Fresh beef prices were down 1.7 percent from October following a 1.9 percent monthly decrease in October from September.  A faster decrease is not surprising given the jump in beef consumption in Q4 of 2016.  Fourth quarter beef production was up a projected 8.3 percent year over year and, when adjusted for fewer beef imports and increased beef exports, resulted in a projected 6.5 percent increase in per capita retail beef consumption compared to Q4 of the previous year.  Sharply higher Q4 beef production in 2016 contributed to a projected annual increase in per capita beef consumption of 3.1 percent for the year.

    Beef production is forecast to increase year over year by 3.5-4.0 percent in 2017 leading to an expected increase in consumption of 1.3 percent year over year.  The consumption increase on a quarter by quarter basis will be relatively modest compared to the sharp jump in domestic consumption in late 2016.  The current projection for 2017 domestic beef consumption hinges on the projection for total beef production as well as continued improvements in the net beef trade balance.  Increased beef consumption may be interpreted by some as better beef demand while lower retail prices might suggest lower beef demand.  In reality, it is the magnitude of retail price adjustments relative to increased consumption that defines the level of beef demand.  In general, lower retail prices in the face of increased beef supplies are the expected response for a given level of demand.  However, other factors such as pork and poultry prices and macroeconomic conditions may shift beef demand.

    The fact that retail beef prices will be lower in 2017 does not inevitably imply additional pressure on cattle prices.   The dynamics of retail price adjustments are slower than for cattle and wholesale beef markets.  This is true for both price increases as well as decreases.  For example, from early 2013, calf prices increased nearly 80 percent to a monthly peak in November 2014.  All Fresh retail beef prices did not peak until eight months later in July 2015 having increased just over 25 percent from early 2013 levels.  Likewise cattle prices have adjusted down more and faster whereas retail beef prices have adjusted less and more slowly.  This is because, not only is it typical for retail prices to adjust more slowly, but also because retail prices began adjusting down eight months after peak cattle prices.  Even if beef supplies were unchanged in 2017 we would expect retail beef prices to continue adjusting for several more months.  Of course, total beef supplies are expected to increase in 2017 and overall market price pressure will depend critically on both domestic and international demand for U.S. beef in 2017.

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    U.S. Dollar - 6 Month Chart:
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    Over the last 5 years, an average of around 10% of U.S. beef production has been exported, making exports an extremely important factor affecting beef and cattle prices.  A strong dollar depresses export demand.
  • U.S. Dollar Index
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    Choice Boxed Beef Cutout, Slaughter, & Feeder Steers:
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    Boxed beef cutout values higher on Choice and steady on Select on moderate to fairly good demand and moderate to heavy offerings. Select and Choice rib and round cuts steady while chuck and loin cuts mostly firm to higher. Beef trimmings not fully established.

    The average value of hide and offal for the five days ending Fri, Jan 13, 2017   was estimated at 11.92 per cwt., up 0.09 from last week and  up 1.25 from last year.

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    Feeder Steers/Corn Correlation:
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    Over the years, the value of 25 bushels of corn has been approximately equal to the price per cwt. for feeder steers.
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    Slaughter Cows & Bulls:
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    Slaughter cows and bulls steady to 2.00 higher. 

    Cutter Cow Carcass Cut-Out Value Friday was 163.34 -- Up 4.08 from last Friday. 

                       Weight          Montana          Oklahoma        Alabama 
    Breakers   1100-1600   57.00-59.00    57.00-61.00    55.00-56.00
    Boners      1000-1450   57.00-60.25    57.00-61.00    56.00-59.00
    Lean          1000-1300   52.00-55.50    56.50-60.00    49.00-54.00
    Bulls           1300-2500   75.00-79.50    77.50-82.00    73.00-77.50

                    Confirmed  Week Ago  Year Ago   WTD   Year Ago
    National      7,858       7,656             7,584    42,488    40,255
    S Central    2,382       1,759             2,555    12,885    11,900
    N Central       774       1,161                761       3,661      3,276
    East            1,502       1,742             1,178      9,053       8,329
    West           1,655          931             1,683      7,294       9,091
    Midwest      1,545      2,063             1,407       9,595      7,659


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    Est. Weekly Meat Production Under Federal Inspection:
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    Total red meat production under Federal inspection for the week ending Saturday, January 14, 2017 was estimated at 1018 million lbs. according to the U.S.Department of Agriculture's Marketing Service. This was 14.1 percent higher than a week ago and 4.6 percent higher than a year ago.  Cumulative meat production for the year to date was 7.5 percent lower compared to the previous year.
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    Weekly Hay Reports: "Click" on links for detailed report
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    Weekly Feedstuffs Market Review:
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    The USDA Market News Service reports feed ingredient prices for the week ending January 11, 2016 were mixed. 
    • Soybean Meal was mixed 6.10 lower to 8.30 higher. Cottonseed Meal was steady to 15.00 lower.  Canola Meal was mixed 18.80 lower to 9.20 higher. Linseed Meal was steady. Sunflower Meal was steady to 5.00 higher. 
    • Whole Cottonseed was steady to 5.00 lower, mostly steady.
    • Crude Soybean Oil was 58 to 107 points higher. Crude Corn Oil was steady to 50 points lower. 
    • Ruminant Meat and Bone Meal was mixed 10.00 lower to 25.00 higher, mostly 5.00 to 25.00 higher. Ruminant Blood Meal was steady to 25.00 higher. Feather Meal was mixed 60.00 lower to 30.00 higher. Menhaden Fishmeal was steady. 
    • Corn Hominy was steady to 5.00 higher, mostly steady. Gluten Feed was mixed 10.00 lower to 3.00 higher. Corn Gluten Meal was mixed 25.00 lower to 15.00 higher. 
    • Distillers Dried Grain was mixed 10.00 lower to 5.00 higher, mostly steady to 5.00 lower. 
    • Wheat Middling's were mixed 15.00 lower to 5.00 higher. Wheat millrun was steady to 5.00 lower.
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    Chute-Side Test Can Reduce Antibiotic Use by 87%
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    In a recent feedlot trial conducted by Advanced Animal Diagnostics (AAD), the use of a new chute-side blood test (QScout® BLD) demonstrated that a feedyard in Nebraska could reduce antibiotic use 87% by selectively treating animals compared to metaphylaxis, or mass treatment with antibiotics. The QScout BLD test, which diagnoses animals with abnormal immune statuses before visual symptoms occur, could help cattle feeders save $148,000 - $218,000 in arrival antibiotic costs per 10,000 head at $17 - $25 per treatment. In addition to substantial savings on treatment costs, this test also enables cattle feeders to demonstrate more precise use of antibiotics, which is of growing importance given consumer pressure to reduce use due to increasing fears of antibiotic resistant organisms.

    The trial, which was conducted on moderate risk sale barn cattle, found no difference in hot carcass weight or yield grade between the trial group that received metaphylaxis versus the group that was selectively treated based on QScout BLD test results. This demonstrates that cattle flagged as normal by QScout® BLD showed the same weight and quality performance at harvest regardless of whether or not they were treated with antibiotics. In addition, steers diagnosed as abnormal by QScout BLD and treated saw an increase in carcass weight of 24 pounds per head – which translated to an additional value of $45 at the market price – compared to abnormal steers that were left untreated. Abnormal steers that were treated were also more likely to be graded Choice+ compared to abnormal steers that were not treated. Trial results demonstrate that this test has the potential to eliminate the need for blanket treatment of entire groups of cattle without sacrificing production or quality.

    "As a beef producer myself, I see the need to increase profitability and protect access to tools like antibiotics by demonstrating we use them precisely only on animals that truly need them. We designed QScout BLD to do both," said Joy Parr Drach, AAD president and CEO.

    For cattle feeders that participate in natural or organic programs, QScout BLD can be used as a sorting tool to determine which animals should be enrolled in those programs. While premiums are high on natural and organic beef, the cost of an animal falling out of the program can be substantial. QScout® BLD could help cattle feeders reduce program fall outs by diagnosing and segregating animals that are subclinically infected or likely to become sick so they don't transmit disease.

    A rapid, chute-side test, QScout BLD uses a single drop of blood collected from the calf during processing using AAD's QDraw™ collection and transfer device. The blood sample is then transferred to a single-use QScout BLD test and inserted into AAD's QScout® Cattle Lab, a portable lab-in-a-box diagnostic platform, which is located near the cattle chute. In seconds, the QScout Cattle Lab decodes the calf's immune response by identifying and differentiating white blood cells that are the first responders to infection, telling the user if the animal is healthy or needs intervention. Test results are automatically transferred to AAD's QStats™ online database, which documents an electronic record of each animal's diagnosis along with key performance metrics.

    About Advanced Animal Diagnostics

    Advanced Animal Diagnostics (AAD), Morrisville, N.C., provides livestock producers with diagnostics that improve profitability and empower more precise care of animals so they live healthier, more productive lives. AAD is committed to researching, developing and commercializing the industry's most reliable, on-site diagnostic tests, such as QScout® BLD to diagnose health status in cattle. With its diagnostic offerings, the company aims to empower real-time management decisions that increase productivity, prevent losses, improve animal welfare and protect the food supply.

    For more information, visit www.QScoutLab.com

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    Bullish/Bearish Consensus:
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    The theory behind the "Bullish/Bearish Consensus" indicator is when the public reaches a consensus, they are usually wrong:
    • They get too bullish after prices have risen and too bearish after they have already fallen.
    Because of this tendency, there are often extremes in opinion right before major changes in trend:
    • When the public reaches a bullish extreme, i.e., a great majority thinks prices will keep rising, then prices often decline instead. 
    • And when they become too bearish, then prices tend to rise.
    So when Public Opinion moves above the red dotted line in the chart, it means that compared to other readings over the past year, you're seeing excessive optimism. You also want to look at the absolute level of Opinion, too - if it's at 90%, then there's no question we're seeing an historic level of bullish opinion.  Watch for readings above 80% (or especially 90%) to spot those dangerous times when the public is overly enthusiastic about a commodity.

    Conversely, when Public Opinion moves below the green dotted line, then the public is excessively pessimistic about the commodity's prospects for further gains compared to their opinion over the past year.  Looking for absolute readings under 20% (or especially 10%) often indicates an upturn in the market.

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    Bullish/Bearish Consensus: Cattle
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    Bullish/Bearish Consensus: Corn
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    Stock Markets & Economic News:
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    The major benchmarks ended the week mixed as the first significant fourth-quarter earnings reports made their appearance. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite performed best and reached record highs. Financials, which have fared best since the election on the promise of higher lending margins and deregulation, started off on a weak note but received a boost Friday from some positive bank earnings.

    The week’s modest advance masked some bouts of significant volatility. The largest such burst came Wednesday afternoon, as investors reacted to President-elect Trump’s first press conference since the election. Trump vowed to “create new bidding procedures for the drug industry,” which he accused of “getting away with murder.” Fortune calculated that the nine largest pharmaceutical firms declined by almost $25 billion in market value following the comments, although stocks recouped some of their losses later in the week.

    Some positive economic data appeared to keep a floor under equities. The government reported on Friday that retail sales rose a solid 0.6% in December, with gains concentrated in autos, furniture, and online sales. The news was particularly welcome in light of major store closing announcements the previous week from Macy’s and Sears -- although it also highlighted the way changes in the economy are taking a toll on some firms while rewarding others. The University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment, also released Friday, unexpectedly ticked lower but remained near its highest level since the financial crisis.

    The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday raised its price and production forecasts for West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil for this year and offered its first projections for 2018. In its monthly energy outlook report, the government agency forecast WTI prices at $52.50 a barrel for this year, up from $50.66 in the December forecast. For 2018, it forecast $55.18. Brent crude is seen at $53.50 this year and $56.18 next year. The EIA also raised its estimate on U.S. crude production to 9 million barrels a day for this year, compared with the previous forecast for 8.78 million. For 2018, it forecast output of 9.3 million barrels a day. 

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    "Click Here" to view a Slide Show of Drought Monitor maps for the last 12 weeks
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    Looking Ahead:
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    During the next 5 days (January 12-16), heavy precipitation is expected to shift away from California to the south-central Plains (where recent conditions have steadily worsened) as the 5-day QPF from WPC predicts 3-5 inches of precipitation over central Oklahoma. Welcome precipitation (1-3 inches) is also forecast for northern and central Texas, western Oklahoma, most of Kansas and Missouri, the Ohio Valley, and eastern Great Lakes region. Light precipitation should linger over the southwestern quarter of the Nation (including California) and in the Northeast. Little or no precipitation should occur across the northern sections of the Rockies and Plains, and in the Southeast. Subnormal temperatures are expected in the West and central Plains while above-normal readings occur in the southern Plains and eastern half of the Nation.

    During January 17-21, the odds are tilted toward above median precipitation in the West and eastern half of the U.S., with sub-median precipitation favored in the southern Plains and western Alaska. Much of the lower 48 States should see above-normal temperatures, especially the eastern half, while subnormal readings are strongly favored in Alaska.

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    Feedyard Closeouts: Profit/(Loss)
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    Slaughter Cattle:
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    Friday trading has been limited on light demand in Nebraska and Western Cornbelt. In the Southern Plains and Colorado trading has been at a standstill. Not enough sales for a full market trend. Last week in the Texas Panhandle and Nebraska live sales sold from 117.00-118.00 and dressed sales in Nebraska sold at 188.00 on a light test. In Kansas and Colorado live sales sold at 118.00. For the prior week in the Western Cornbelt dressed sales sold at 188.00. The last live sales market in the Western Cornbelt was two weeks ago with sales from 116.00-118.00.

    The Fed Cattle On-Line Auction offered 5,841 total head on Wednesday with 4,046 head selling at a weighted average price of $119.16 per cwt.

    Livestock Slaughter under Federal Inspection:
                                    CATTLE    CALVES  HOGS      SHEEP
    Friday                      114,000      2,000       422,000     7,000
    Week ago (est)      114,000      2,000       432,000     7,000
    Year ago (act)         106,000      2,000      429,000     7,000
    Week to date (est) 578,000    10,000   2,150,000    39,000
    Last Week (est)      468,000      9,000   1,752,000    31,000
    Last Year (act)        552,000    10,000   2,049,000    37,000

    Saturday  (est)          31,000         0            252,000         0
    Week ago (est)         69,000         0           336,000     1,000
    Year ago (act)           24,000         0           248,000         0
    Week to date (est) 609,000    10,000   2,402,000    39,000
    Last Week (est)      537,000      9,000   2,088,000    32,000
    Last Year* (act)      575,000     10,000   2,297,000    37,000
    2017 YTD             1,146,000    19,000   4,495,000    70,000
    2016 *YTD           1,173,000    21,000   5,044,000    75,000
    Percent change     -2.3%         -9.8%      -10.9%       -6.1%

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    National Grain Summary:
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    Compared to last week, grain and soybean were mixed.  Soybeans saw support from concerns over weather conditions in South America.  The January Supply and Demand Report was released on Thursday with USDA reducing soybean ending stocks by 60 mb, now at 420 mb.  Corn ending stocks were also reduced from 2.403 to 2.355 billion bushels.  Export sales and shipments for wheat totaled 14.4 mb and 6.3 mb, respectively.  For corn, export sales totaled 29.7 mb and shipments were at 27.3 mb.  The report is neutral to bearish for wheat and corn.  Export sales for soybeans totaled 10.7 mb and shipments totaled 52.6 mb.  These numbers may be viewed as bullish for soybeans.  Wheat was steady to 33 cents higher.  Corn was mostly steady to 11 cents lower.  Sorghum was 5 cents lower.  Soybeans were 22-27 cents higher.
    Corn futures closed near their highs for the day with fractional gains. The March contract closed fractionally higher on the week. Corn futures will struggle to move higher on their own as traders continue to focus on the higher-than-expected stocks on hand reported by USDA. The direction in the dollar along with soybean and wheat prices will have a lot of influence on corn's trade next week. 

    Soybean futures settled around 6 cents higher in the March through July contracts. The November contract ended 2 cents higher for the day. For the week, March soybean futures rallied more than 50 cents. Much of traders' focus coming out of the long holiday weekend will be on Argentine weather. Central Argentina is in line for more heavy rains this weekend and soils are already saturated. 

    Wheat futures faced pressure overnight and early this morning, but the market strengthened ahead of midday and futures settled high-range for the day. SRW wheat ended 1/2 to 2 3/4 cents higher in all but the front-month that settled fractionally lower. HRW wheat posted gains of around 4 cents. And HRS wheat posted gains ranging from 4 1/4 to 8 3/4 cents. The SRW wheat market edged out slight gains for the week. Attention next week will be on whether a cold snap in the European Union and the Black Sea region does any damage. 

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    Five Year Moving Average - Corn & Wheat:
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    Your Suggestions:
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    Our goal is for the Weekly Market Summary to provide a comprehensive overview of the week's cattle market.  If you have a suggestion that would enhance the summary, use the link below to submit your suggestion. If we implement it, we'll send you a Cattle Range Knife as a token of our appreciation.
     
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    Although all information is from sources believed to be accurate & timely, The Cattle Range expressly disclaims all warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of any of the contents provided and shall not be liable for decisions or actions taken based on the data/information/opinions contained within.
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